USDJPY cautious as interest rate uncertainty persists

The USDJPY pair stalled near 155.65, with the market watching comments on monetary policy and interest rates. Discover more in our analysis for 2 December 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Japan’s Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan act in coordination on monetary policy
• Current trend: the USDJPY pair may recover after the correction
• USDJPY forecast for 2 December 2025: 156.76

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is hovering near 155.65 on Tuesday, with the Japanese yen pausing after a local strengthening. The yen’s previous rise was driven by stronger expectations of a potential Bank of Japan rate hike and a reassessment of the future monetary policy trajectory.

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said there are no discrepancies between the government and the Bank of Japan’s policy assessments. She emphasised the alignment between fiscal and monetary policy. Katayama also noted expectations of continued coordination with the central bank, including measures aimed at achieving the 2% inflation target, provided that wage growth remains sustainable.

Her comments came after BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech, in which he expressed confidence in Japan’s economic outlook and confirmed that the December policy meeting will involve weighing the pros and cons of a rate hike.

The USDJPY forecast is moderately positive.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY H4 chart shows a correction after the upward movement that brought the pair to a local high near 157.91. Following the formation of a reversal candlestick pattern near this resistance area, the price entered a prolonged downward correction, breaking intermediate levels and testing the 154.66 support. Here, buyers managed to regain control and initiate a short-term rebound.

The current recovery brings the pair towards the local resistance zone at 155.60–155.80, which aligns with the middle Bollinger Band. Remaining below this zone keeps risks tilted towards renewed decline to 154.66 and potentially to the lower boundary of the range.

Wide Bollinger Bands indicate elevated volatility, and the downward slope of the channel following the reversal confirms the corrective nature of the movement. A breakout above 156.76 would be the first signal of renewed bullish momentum and open the path for a retest of the 157.91 level.

Summary

The USDJPY pair has moved into a correction but may quickly resume growth. The USDJPY forecast for today, 2 December 2025, suggests stabilisation and a rebound towards 156.76.

Open Account