BoJ intervention rumours push USDJPY lower

The USD continues to lose ground against the yen, with quotes testing the 156.70 level. Discover more in our analysis for 10 February 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The yen is attempting to strengthen amid rumours of intervention
• US economic data is pushing USDJPY lower
• USDJPY forecast for 10 February 2026: 154.50

Fundamental analysis

The forecast for 10 February 2026 appears optimistic for the USD, as the USDJPY pair is forming a corrective wave and may resume growth, with quotes currently trading around the 156.70 level.

Rumours of intervention by the Bank of Japan continue to stir the market. In a widely circulated statement, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama emphasised that she is in close coordination with colleagues from the US Federal Reserve, discussing the possibility of coordinated intervention measures in the foreign exchange market. This signal from the authorities provided an immediate, yet still limited, support to the national currency. The yen, which had been under intense pressure following the triumphant Sunday victory of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her coalition, received a short-term respite.

After securing a landslide victory, the ruling bloc now has a constitutional supermajority in parliament, removing all legislative obstacles to implementing an ambitious and large-scale fiscal stimulus program, which initially put pressure on the JPY.

An additional factor for the decline in the USDJPY rate could be the US employment data scheduled for release later this week.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair formed an Engulfing reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band and is trading around the 155.40 level. At this stage, the price may continue its downward wave following the pattern’s signal, with the downside target at 154.50.

At the same time, the USDJPY forecast also considers an alternative scenario, with a rebound towards 156.50 before a decline.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 157.30 and 159.30
• Key support levels: 154.50 and 152.90

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A resumption of growth with consolidation above 156.50 would confirm renewed bullish momentum. The risk-to-reward ratio is 1:8. The upside potential is around 200 pips with a risk of about 25 pips.

• Take Profit: 158.50
• Stop Loss: 156.25

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the descending channel with consolidation below 155.85 would indicate increasing bearish pressure and trigger a deeper correction in the pair.

• Take Profit: 154.65
• Stop Loss: 156.25

Risk factors

Increasing corrective pressure as prices consolidate below the 156.45 level could trigger a deeper decline and a breakdown of the bullish technical structure. An additional risk to the bullish momentum is fundamental support for the yen amid political stability and expectations of loose fiscal policy in Japan.

Summary

The yen continues to strengthen against the USD, with technical analysis of USDJPY suggesting a decline towards the 154.50 support level.

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