Daily technical analysis and forecast for 26 August 2026

Daily technical analysis and forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, US 500, and BTCUSD for 26 August 2026.

Each scenario on this page reflects the H4 market structure as of 26 August 2026 and stays relevant for the current trading day. It closes once the price reaches the take-profit or stop-loss level, or once the trading day ends with neither level reached. A new analysis with updated levels is published every trading day, so check the latest version rather than an older one.

EURUSD forecast

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a consolidation range below 1.1710 after a strong upward wave. The current structure indicates a downward move from the 1.1685–1.1710 area, with the nearest target around 1.1630. A technical rebound is possible after reaching this area, but the main scenario for 26 August suggests a continued correction towards 1.1586.

Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Elliott wave structure and the upward wave matrix with a pivot point around 1.1581. This level remains key to maintaining EURUSD’s medium-term upward structure. The price is currently hovering within the range between 1.1630 and 1.1710, and an attempt to consolidate below the central 1.1660 area would increase the probability of a move towards 1.1586.

The fundamental backdrop remains broadly supportive of the euro due to the ECB’s more hawkish stance, but in the short term, the market is awaiting US PCE data and Fed signals. Therefore, a baseline trading scenario for the coming day is a technical correction to the downside. Consolidation above 1.1710 would invalidate the bearish scenario and open the way towards 1.1830.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.1661
• Entry price: 1.1656
• Stop loss: 1.1711
• Take profit: 1.1586
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.27

USDJPY forecast

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair formed an upward wave towards the 159.46 area and then entered a corrective consolidation phase. The current structure remains above 158.70, suggesting the correction to be viewed as preparation for the next upward move. The main target for the coming day is 160.63, while a breakout above it would open the way towards 161.16.

Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Elliott wave structure and the upward wave matrix with a pivot point at 158.20. As long as the price remains above 158.70, the structure of higher lows remains intact. The central area of the current range is around 159.10, so consolidation above it would increase the probability of a move towards 160.63.

The fundamental backdrop for the pair remains mixed. The yield differential supports the US dollar, but expectations of a BoJ rate hike and the risk of renewed currency intervention limit USDJPY’s upside potential. Therefore, BUY is the main technical scenario, although the 160.60–161.20 area remains a higher-risk zone for long positions.

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 159.00
• Entry price: 159.05
• Stop loss: 158.70
• Take profit: 160.63
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:4.51

GBPUSD forecast

On the H4 chart, the GBPUSD pair maintains an upward structure, but after reaching the 1.3670–1.3680 area, the market formed a sideways consolidation range. The price is below the upper boundary of the current range, while the structure of the latest candlesticks indicates weakening upward momentum. For the coming day, a corrective wave towards 1.3600 is expected, with the potential for a further decline towards 1.3545.

Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Elliott wave structure and the upward wave matrix with a pivot point around 1.3544. As long as the market remains below the 1.3670–1.3680 area, a corrective move remains likely. The central line of the current Price Envelope is around 1.3600, and a breakout would strengthen the move towards the lower boundary near 1.3545.

Fundamentally, the pound is bolstered by persistent inflation risks in the UK and the high BoE rate. However, in the short term, this is not enough to generate a new upward momentum while the price remains below 1.3680. Therefore, for the coming day, the main scenario remains SELL with a target at 1.3545. Consolidation above 1.3680 would invalidate this scenario and create conditions for a move towards 1.3734–1.3816.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.3641
• Entry price: 1.3636
• Stop loss: 1.3675
• Take profit: 1.3545
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2.29

AUDUSD forecast

On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair completed an upward wave towards the 0.7180 area and approached the 0.7204 resistance level. The upward structure remains intact, but the current price is in an area where the probability of short-term profit-taking is increasing. For the coming day, a corrective wave towards 0.7134 is expected, with the main target around 0.7117.

Technically, the downside scenario is confirmed by the price position relative to the upper boundary of the Price Envelope and by the upward wave matrix structure with a pivot point at 0.7117. A breakout below 0.7161 would increase the probability of a move towards the central line at 0.7134 and then 0.7117.

The fundamental backdrop became more favourable for the AUD following today’s Australian inflation release, so SELL here is predominantly a short-term technical scenario. For it to remain valid, the price must not consolidate above 0.7204. A breakout above this level would invalidate the correction and create conditions for a move towards 0.7240.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 0.7180
• Entry price: 0.7175
• Stop loss: 0.7205
• Take profit: 0.7117
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.93

USDCAD forecast

On the H4 chart, the USDCAD pair maintains a pronounced medium-term downward structure, but after reaching the 1.3734 area, the market formed an upward correction. The price is currently consolidating around 1.3840–1.3865. Consolidation above 1.3865 would open the way towards 1.3900 and then 1.3937–1.3939.

Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the corrective wave structure and the downward wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.3937. The 1.3841 level acts as the nearest support area. As long as the price holds above it, a corrective rise is likely to continue.

The fundamental backdrop also supports short-term USDCAD growth. Falling oil prices are weakening support for the Canadian dollar, while the BoC rate remains significantly below US rates. Therefore, the primary scenario for the coming day is BUY with a target at 1.3900. Consolidation below 1.3841 would invalidate the current upward scenario.

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 1.3858
• Entry price: 1.3863
• Stop loss: 1.3837
• Take profit: 1.3900
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.47

XAUUSD forecast

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD maintains a pronounced upward structure, but after reaching the 4,695–4,705 area, the market formed a consolidation range. Prices remain well above the central line of the upward move, but their position near the upper boundary of the Price Envelope increases the likelihood of a technical correction.

For the coming day, the main scenario is a decline towards the central line around 4,510. A breakout below it would make the 4,425–4,330 area the next target. The 4,330 level also corresponds to the pivot point of the upward wave matrix and remains the key long-term support for the current structure.

The fundamental backdrop for gold remains strong due to geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of a softer Fed policy if inflationary pressure eases. However, today the market is awaiting PCE data, while prices have approached significant resistance. Therefore, a technical downward correction is the preferred scenario for the coming day. Consolidation above 4,705 would invalidate this scenario and open the potential for a move towards 4,743.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 4,649
• Entry price: 4,644
• Stop loss: 4,705
• Take profit: 4,510
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2.20

US 500 forecast

On the H4 chart, after a strong upward wave, the US 500 formed a consolidation range around 7,676–7,695. The current structure indicates weakening upward momentum and an increased likelihood of a corrective move. The main downside target for the coming day is the 7,578 area, located near the lower boundary of the current Price Envelope.

Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the downward wave matrix with a pivot point around 7,695. As long as the index remains below 7,695–7,750, the corrective scenario retains the advantage. The initial target is 7,630, and a breakout below it would push prices lower towards 7,578.

The fundamental backdrop for the US stock market remains mixed. Falling yields and oil prices support equities. However, NVIDIA is due to report after today’s market close, which could significantly alter the outlook for the technology sector and overall risk appetite. Therefore, during the first half of the day, the preferred technical scenario is SELL, with the 7,745 resistance level in focus. Consolidation above this mark would invalidate the current correction and open the way towards 7,918.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 7,676.7000
• Entry price: 7,671.7000
• Stop loss: 7,745.1000
• Take profit: 7,578.1000
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.28

BTCUSD forecast

On the H4 chart, BTCUSD formed a strong upward wave towards 81,235 and then began a corrective move. The price is currently hovering around 78,944, while the structure of the latest candlesticks indicates continued selling pressure after a failure to consolidate above 8,000.

The main downside target for the coming day remains the central line of the Price Envelope around 77,123. After the price tests it, a technical rebound towards the 78,300 area is possible, but the main scenario remains a subsequent decline towards 75,565. If the correction intensifies, the next target will be the 71,127–70,870 area.

Technically, the scenario is confirmed by the upward wave matrix with a pivot point around 70,870. This level remains important for the long-term BTCUSD structure. As long as the price remains below 81,235, the current wave should be viewed as corrective. Consolidation above 81,235 would invalidate the short-term bearish scenario and restore upside potential.

The fundamental backdrop for Bitcoin remains linked to expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, US dollar movements, and overall risk appetite. Ahead of the upcoming PCE data and Warsh’s speech, cryptocurrency market volatility may remain elevated. Therefore, a preferred scenario for the coming day is SELL with a target at 75,565.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 78,943.62
• Entry price: 78,938.62
• Stop loss: 81,235.33
• Take profit: 75,565.29
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.47

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