Daily technical analysis and forecast for 1 September 2026

Daily technical analysis and forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, US 500, and BTCUSD for 1 September 2026.

Each scenario on this page reflects the market structure on the H4 chart as of 10:00 UTC+3 on 1 September 2026 and remains valid throughout the current trading day. It closes when the price reaches either the take-profit or stop-loss level, or at the end of the trading day if neither level has been reached. The assessment considers the current H4 chart structure, key support and resistance levels, the direction of the medium-term movement, and the prevailing fundamental backdrop.

EURUSD forecast

The fundamental backdrop for the EURUSD pair remains mixed. The ECB has grounds for further policy tightening due to rising energy prices and inflation risks, which limits the potential for a long-term decline in the euro. However, in the short term, the advantage is gradually shifting towards the US dollar. The renewed conflict in the Middle East has pushed energy prices higher, strengthened inflation expectations, and simultaneously lifted US Treasury yields. Today, eurozone inflation data, as well as US business activity and labour market indicators, will provide additional sources of volatility.

On the H4 chart, after EURUSD formed a high around 1.1710, the market entered a downward corrective structure. The initial decline took the price to the 1.1575 area, after which buyers formed a recovery towards 1.1617. However, the market failed to consolidate above this level.

The price is currently below 1.1617, forming a consolidation range. This is a crucial technical point, as the 1.1617 mark acts as the central line of the current structure and also as an area from which the market could form a new downward move. The sequence of recent highs shows that buyers have so far failed to restore the previous upward momentum.

If the price breaks out of the current range to the downside, the main target will be 1.1575. A breakout below this level would confirm a continuation of the corrective wave and create conditions for a decline towards 1.1525. This level is a stronger support area and a potential zone for the completion of the first major phase of the correction.

A return above 1.1617 would weaken selling pressure. In this case, another test of 1.1632–1.1650 would be possible. However, as long as the market remains below 1.1617, sellers retain the technical advantage. Given the fundamental strengthening of the US dollar amid rising yields, the main scenario for the coming day remains bearish.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.1607
• Entry price: 1.1602
• Stop loss: 1.1630
• Take profit: 1.1525
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3

USDJPY forecast

The fundamental backdrop for USDJPY is becoming increasingly less favourable for a sustained rise in the pair. On the one hand, high US Treasury yields support the dollar. On the other hand, the market is increasingly pricing in a BoJ rate hike in September. Additional pressure on the yen is linked to the fact that the Japanese authorities and the US are demonstrating readiness to coordinate actions to prevent excessive weakening of the Japanese currency. The rise in the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds to 3% also points to a significant shift in expectations regarding Japan’s monetary policy.

On the H4 chart, after a deep decline towards 155.22, USDJPY formed a reversal structure and entered an upward phase. The market subsequently formed a sequence of higher lows and higher highs, while the local ascending trendline continues to support the move.

The latest upward wave took the price to 160.25. After testing this level, the market moved into a consolidation phase around 159.80. Thus, the main struggle is now taking place between support at 159.55 and resistance at 160.25.

As long as the price holds above 159.55, the upward structure remains intact. A breakout above 160.25 would confirm a continued upward wave and suggest a move towards 161.16. This level is the key upside target of the current structure.

At the same time, fundamental factors call for caution with buying directly below 160.25. If the market fails to break resistance and falls below 159.55, a correction towards 158.85 is likely. A deeper decline would take the price towards 158.20, where the central area of the broader upward structure lies.

Thus, the technical trend remains upward, but the 160.25 area is critical. For the coming day, the main scenario suggests an attempt to break above this level and continue towards 161.16 while support at 159.55 holds.

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 159.78
• Entry price: 159.83
• Stop loss: 159.35
• Take profit: 161.16
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3

GBPUSD forecast

The fundamental backdrop for GBPUSD remains mixed, with a slight advantage for the US dollar. UK inflation remains elevated, but the BoE is not showing readiness for rapid policy tightening. The market is shifting expectations for the next rate hike to a later period, while the Fed, by contrast, is facing new inflation risks. Rising oil prices and US Treasury yields are strengthening the dollar’s advantage.

On the H4 chart, GBPUSD retains a downward corrective structure after forming a high around 1.3674. The market subsequently formed a sequence of lower highs, while the current price remains below the 1.3564 area.

The latest recovery attempt stalled directly below the resistance level, indicating that sellers remain in control. The 1.3564 level is the central resistance of the current structure. As long as the price remains below it, the main scenario suggests a continued decline.

The first target is 1.3473, where a significant lower boundary of the current Price Envelope lies. A breakout below it would strengthen selling pressure, with the next target at 1.3452. If a deeper correction develops, the potential move could continue towards 1.3346.

An alternative scenario would be activated by sustained consolidation above 1.3564. In this case, the market could recover towards 1.3637 and then test 1.3674. However, this remains the less likely outcome for the current structure.

The main forecast for the coming trading day suggests a continued downward correction, with an initial target at 1.3473. Selling from the current area retains an acceptable risk-to-reward profile.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.3545
• Entry price: 1.3540
• Stop loss: 1.3570
• Take profit: 1.3473
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

AUDUSD forecast

The fundamental backdrop for AUDUSD remains mixed. High inflation in Australia maintains the likelihood of a further RBA rate hike, which supports the Australian dollar. However, the labour market and housing sector are showing signs of weakening, while lower global risk appetite traditionally puts pressure on the AUD. Another factor is the rise in oil prices and bond yields, which is increasing the appeal of the US dollar.

On the H4 chart, AUDUSD retains a pronounced medium-term upward structure. After forming a low around 0.6918, the market developed a sequence of higher lows and higher highs. The latest major wave took the price into the 0.7200–0.7206 area.

This is where the resistance area formed. After reaching the upper boundary of the Price Envelope, the market pulled back sharply, while the subsequent recovery stalled below 0.7179. This indicates that a local peak is forming and increases the probability of a corrective wave.

The key support level is 0.7150. As long as the price remains above this mark, a new surge towards 0.7179–0.7206 cannot be completely ruled out. However, a breakout below 0.7150 would confirm the bearish scenario.

In this case, the first target would be 0.7090. If selling pressure increases, the market could then continue towards 0.7063. This area is a stronger support zone and could trigger a technical recovery.

A return above 0.7179 would invalidate the short-term bearish scenario and bring 0.7206 back into focus. Until this happens, preference is given to a corrective decline from the resistance area.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 0.7168
• Entry price: 0.7163
• Stop loss: 0.7190
• Take profit: 0.7090
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3

USDCAD forecast

USDCAD is entering the most important period of the current week. On 2 September, the BoC will announce its interest rate decision, so the market is already beginning to price in the possibility of a sharp change in Canadian dollar volatility. Higher oil prices are supporting the CAD, while trade risks between the US and Canada are limiting this effect. High US yields provide the dollar with an additional advantage. As a result, the fundamental picture remains mixed, and the probability of range-bound trading is increasing ahead of the BoC meeting.

On the H4 chart, USDCAD retains a medium-term downward structure. After declining towards 1.3733–1.3758, the market formed a corrective rise and reached the 1.3900 area. Following an unsuccessful attempt to continue the recovery, the price turned lower again.

The market is currently around 1.3836. This level is crucial, as it corresponds to the lower boundary of the current consolidation. If support holds, a short-term upward wave towards 1.3873–1.3874 may form.

The 1.3874 area is viewed as the first target of the corrective recovery. After this area is tested, the probability of renewed declines will increase. A breakout below 1.3836 would signal a continuation of the main downward structure, with targets at 1.3797 and 1.3758.

At the same time, consolidation above 1.3874 would suggest a move towards 1.3935. However, the market would need to form sustained upward momentum for this to happen.

For the coming trading day, preference is given to buying from the 1.3836 support level with a target at 1.3874. The trade is corrective and should be considered in the context of elevated volatility ahead of the BoC meeting.

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 1.3836
• Entry price: 1.3841
• Stop loss: 1.3820
• Take profit: 1.3874
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

XAUUSD forecast

The fundamental picture for gold remains mixed. The geopolitical confrontation between the US and Iran supports demand for safe-haven assets, but at the same time, rising oil prices are increasing inflation expectations and pushing bond yields higher. The rise in real yields is becoming the main short-term obstacle for gold. Therefore, the strong medium-term uptrend is now accompanied by an increased probability of a deep technical correction.

On the H4 chart, after a prolonged upward move, XAUUSD formed a high in the 4,697–4,718 area. The market then entered a downward phase. A sharp decline took the price to 4,434, where consolidation formed.

The current structure shows that buyers have so far failed to return prices above 4,460–4,506. Therefore, the market remains under selling pressure. The 4,397 level is particularly significant. A breakout below it would confirm a continuation of the corrective wave.

The first major target in this case is the 4,318–4,325 area, where important technical support is located. After testing this area, prices could return towards 4,440–4,460. Such a rebound would be viewed as a technical correction within the downward move.

A consolidation below 4,318 would open the door for a deeper decline towards 4,145. This would represent a significant correction of the entire previous upward wave.

A return above 4,506 would weaken selling pressure, while consolidation above 4,605 would signal a recovery of the upward structure. As long as the market remains below these levels, the main scenario stays bearish.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 4,435
• Entry price: 4,430
• Stop loss: 4,470
• Take profit: 4,318
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3

US 500 forecast

The US stock market is entering September under more challenging conditions. The renewed military conflict in the Middle East has driven oil prices and US Treasury yields higher while reducing investors’ risk appetite. The S&P 500 ended August lower in the final session of the month, and the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield is increasing pressure on highly valued technology companies. Therefore, the short-term fundamental backdrop is currently neutral to negative.

On the H4 chart, after a strong upward move, the US 500 formed a high around 7,820, after which a correction began. The decline took the market to 7,642, where buyers formed a recovery towards 7,770.

However, the market failed to continue rising. After another decline, consolidation formed around 7,686. Thus, the current structure is characterised by a struggle between support at 7,642 and resistance at 7,733.

As long as the price remains below 7,733, the upward wave is viewed as a corrective recovery within a broader downward structure. A breakout below 7,642 would signal a continued correction, with an initial target at 7,600.

If the price consolidates below 7,600, the next area of interest will be 7,598–7,532. However, for the coming trading day, the main target remains 7,600.

An alternative scenario would be activated if the price returns above 7,733. In this case, the market could recover towards 7,770 and then test the 7,820 level. For now, however, the combination of the technical structure and deteriorating global risk appetite gives sellers the advantage.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 7,688
• Entry price: 7,683
• Stop loss: 7,715
• Take profit: 7,600
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3

BTCUSD forecast

BTCUSD begins September under the influence of two opposing factors. Continued demand in the cryptocurrency market supports Bitcoin’s long-term structure, but rising US Treasury yields, stronger expectations of a Fed rate hike, and weaker risk appetite are creating short-term pressure. The renewed geopolitical conflict is also increasing Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets, meaning that deterioration in the stock market could amplify cryptocurrency volatility.

On the H4 chart, BTCUSD formed a high around 81,226 after a strong upward wave. The market then entered a correction and formed a series of fluctuations between the 77,047 and 79,917 areas.

The 79,161 level is particularly important. This is where the central line of the current structure lies. The latest attempt to rise ended directly around this area, after which the price began to decline again. Therefore, as long as BTCUSD remains below 79,161, sellers hold the upper hand.

The first downside target is the 74,723–74,740 area. This is the lower boundary of the current Price Envelope and a significant support zone. After reaching this area, a technical rebound towards 77,047 is possible. However, if sellers maintain pressure and the price consolidates below 74,723, the next target will be 72,589–72,590.

A return above 79,161 would be the first sign that the bearish scenario is weakening. Consolidation above 79,917 could bring buyers back into the market and create conditions for another test of the 81,226 level. A breakout above the latter would indicate a resumption of the main upward wave.

For the coming trading day, preference is given to a corrective decline. At the same time, the current SELL should be viewed specifically as a short-term trade against Bitcoin’s broader upward structure.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 78,819
• Entry price: 78,814
• Stop loss: 79,200
• Take profit: 74,740
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:11

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

EURUSD has recovered from the July lows and is trading near 1.1545 — back in bullish territory. The pair has reclaimed EMA65 on the daily, formed a bullish EMA crossover on H4, and the US-eurozone GDP gap has narrowed sharply (US 1.5% vs eurozone 1.0%). Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank both now target 1.2500 by year-end. A confirmed close above 1.1700 opens the path to 1.1805. We break down the key levels, three trading scenarios, and what the unprecedented 9-3 FOMC dissent vote means for EURUSD.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

Gold has reversed its downtrend and is trading near 4,360 USD, back above both EMA65 and EMA200. ETF flows turned positive in July with 3 billion USD of net inflows, and central banks bought 288.9 tonnes in Q2 — up 62% year-on-year. A breakout above 4,500 USD opens the path to 4,855 USD and the 5,597 USD all-time high. We break down the key levels, three trading scenarios with entry triggers, and what J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs are forecasting for gold in 2026.