Daily technical analysis and forecast for 2 September 2026

Daily technical analysis and forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, US 500, and BTCUSD for 2 September 2026.

Each scenario on this page reflects the market structure on the H4 chart as of 10:00 UTC+3 on 2 September 2026 and remains valid throughout the current trading day. It closes when the price reaches either the take-profit or stop-loss level, or at the end of the trading day if neither level has been reached. The assessment considers the current H4 chart structure, key support and resistance levels, the direction of the medium-term movement, and the prevailing fundamental backdrop.

EURUSD forecast

For EURUSD, the short-term fundamental backdrop remains subdued. The US dollar is supported by rising US yields and investors’ cautious attitude towards risk assets. The stronger the expectations that the Fed will maintain a restrictive stance, the more difficult it will be for the euro to build a sustainable recovery.

The European Central Bank continues to focus on inflation indicators and the state of the eurozone economy. However, in the current market balance, external factors related to the US dollar and US yields have a stronger influence on the pair. Elevated energy prices also remain a potential risk for the European economy.

On the H4 chart, EURUSD completed a large upward wave in the 1.1710 area and moved into a downward correction. After forming a high, the market broke the upward structure and began to form a sequence of lower highs.

The 1.1617 level acts as the central resistance area and the centre of the current downward wave. As long as the price remains below this area, sellers hold the upper hand. The latest attempt to rise was capped by this level, after which the market returned to the 1.1575 area.

The nearest support level is 1.1575. A confident breakout below it would confirm another downward move towards 1.1525. This area is the first target of the current momentum and could trigger short-term profit-taking by sellers.

If the price consolidates below 1.1525, the market will gain potential to test 1.1506 and continue to develop the downward structure. An alternative scenario is possible only if the price returns above 1.1617. In this case, the pair could recover towards 1.1659, although this is not the main scenario for now.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.1579
• Entry price: 1.1574
• Stop loss: 1.1622
• Take profit: 1.1525
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.1

USDJPY forecast

USDJPY remains one of the pairs most sensitive to US Treasury yield dynamics. Rising US yields continue to support the dollar by widening the interest rate differential between the US and Japan. At the same time, demand for the yen as a safe-haven currency may periodically strengthen when global market sentiment deteriorates.

The Bank of Japan remains an important medium-term factor for the pair. Any signals pointing to further normalisation of Japanese monetary policy could support the yen. However, at the start of the trading day, the market continues to focus primarily on US yields and Fed expectations.

On the H4 chart, USDJPY formed a pronounced recovery wave from the 155.22 area. After the sharp decline in late July, the market consistently formed a series of higher lows, confirming that the upward structure remains intact.

The price reached the 160.40 level, where consolidation has formed. This mark is the nearest resistance. The current correction from this level has not yet disrupted the main upward structure, as the market remains above 159.60.

The 159.60 level is the key support for the coming trading day. Holding above it creates conditions for another attempt to rise towards 160.40. If the price consolidates above this area, the next target will be 161.20.

A decline below 159.60 would signal a deeper correction. In this case, the market could move towards 158.20, where an important boundary of the current upward wave lies. As long as this level is not broken, the medium-term technical bias remains in favour of buying.

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 160.21
• Entry price: 160.26
• Stop loss: 159.58
• Take profit: 161.20
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.4

GBPUSD forecast

The pound remains under the influence of expectations regarding Bank of England policy. Higher oil prices are increasing inflation risks for the UK, which could limit the scope for policy easing. At the same time, overall demand for the US dollar remains a stronger factor for GBPUSD’s short-term dynamics.

The state of the UK economy and the future path of inflation will determine the pound’s medium-term outlook. However, for the coming trading day, the main focus will be on the US dollar’s overall performance and the market reaction to US macroeconomic data.

On the H4 chart, GBPUSD completed an upward wave in the 1.3674 area. After forming this high, the market broke the local ascending trendline and formed a sequence of lower highs.

The current price is near 1.3500. The 1.3565 level is exerting pressure on the pair from above and acts as the centre of the current downward structure. As long as the price remains below this area, the main scenario suggests continued selling pressure.

The first downside target is 1.3451. This area is a significant support and the lower boundary of the nearest range. A breakout below it would create conditions for a further move towards 1.3417.

Below 1.3417, the next medium-term target would be 1.3347. At the same time, a return above 1.3565 would indicate weakening selling pressure and suggest a recovery towards 1.3600–1.3637. For now, this scenario is considered alternative.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.3500
• Entry price: 1.3495
• Stop loss: 1.3530
• Take profit: 1.3451
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.3

AUDUSD forecast

The Australian dollar remains dependent on overall risk appetite, commodity market conditions, and expectations regarding the Chinese economy. Growing geopolitical uncertainty and a stronger US dollar are creating an unfavourable short-term backdrop for the AUD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia remains important for the pair’s medium-term outlook. However, in the current environment, AUDUSD price movements are being driven more by sentiment across global markets. If pressure on stock indices and commodity currencies persists, the Australian dollar could continue its corrective decline.

On the H4 chart, AUDUSD previously formed a stable upward structure from the 0.6920 area. The market consistently set new local highs and reached the channel’s upper boundary near 0.7207.

After testing the 0.7207 level, the market formed a corrective wave. The price moved back below 0.7148, which now acts as the nearest resistance, indicating weakening buying momentum in the short term.

The first downside target is 0.7115. A breakout below this level would confirm a continued correction towards 0.7088. In this area, buyers could make another attempt to restore the upward structure.

If sellers consolidate below 0.7088, the correction could deepen towards 0.7023. An alternative scenario suggests a return above 0.7148, followed by a move towards 0.7175–0.7207. As long as the price remains below 0.7148, the downside scenario remains the base case.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 0.7134
• Entry price: 0.7129
• Stop loss: 0.7151
• Take profit: 0.7088
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.9

USDCAD forecast

Today, the key factor for USDCAD will be the BoC decision. Any divergence between market expectations and the actual decision could cause a sharp expansion in the pair’s trading range. The regulator’s rhetoric on inflation, economic growth, and the future rate path will also be crucial.

Higher oil prices support the Canadian dollar, as oil remains a significant part of Canada’s export sector. However, overall demand for the US dollar, rising yields, and defensive market sentiment are currently exerting counterpressure on the CAD. Therefore, the pair’s reaction to the BoC decision could be mixed.

On the H4 chart, USDCAD completed a prolonged downward wave near 1.3732 and began to recover. After forming a low, the market developed an upward correction with a series of higher lows.

The price is hovering above 1.3903. As long as this zone holds as support, the upward structure remains intact, with the nearest target for buyers at 1.3957, where the upper boundary of the current wave lies.

A breakout above 1.3957 would suggest a further move towards 1.4019. However, after reaching this target, the probability of a corrective decline would increase, as the broader downward channel has not yet been invalidated.

A move below 1.3899 would be the first sign of buyer weakness. In this case, the risk of a decline towards 1.3844 and then 1.3783 would increase. For the main scenario to play out, it is important for the price to remain above 1.3903.

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 1.3919
• Entry price: 1.3924
• Stop loss: 1.3899
• Take profit: 1.3957
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.3

XAUUSD forecast

Gold remains under the influence of two opposing factors. Geopolitical uncertainty supports interest in safe-haven assets, while rising yields and a stronger US dollar increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and put pressure on prices.

In the short term, the market is assessing whether higher oil prices will lead to more hawkish expectations for Fed policy. If yields continue to rise, corrective pressure on XAUUSD may persist. Conversely, a worsening global sentiment combined with a weaker US dollar could restore demand for the metal.

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD completed a strong upward wave in the 4,690 area. After forming a high, the market reversed lower and broke below the short-term ascending trendline.

The move below 4,458 was a significant technical signal. This level previously acted as support and now serves as the key resistance area. As long as the price remains below it, the downward corrective structure stays intact.

Prices are currently hovering around 4,306. The nearest target for sellers is 4,224, an important support level where demand could emerge and trigger a technical rebound.

A breakout below 4,224 would open the way towards 4,145. A return above 4,458 would signal easing selling pressure and suggest a recovery towards 4,550. Until such a signal appears, the downward scenario remains the priority.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 4,306
• Entry price: 4,301
• Stop loss: 4,341
• Take profit: 4,224
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2.2

US 500 forecast

The US stock market is under pressure from rising bond yields and increasing inflation risks. Technology companies remain the most sensitive to this factor, as higher borrowing costs reduce the appeal of growth stocks.

Higher oil prices are an additional risk for the index. Accelerating inflation could force the market to revise expectations for the pace of Fed monetary policy easing. Over the coming day, the reaction to US economic data could determine the index’s direction.

On the H4 chart, the US 500 completed an upward wave in the 7,820 area. After reaching a new high, the market reversed lower and formed a sequence of lower highs.

The 7,675 level is the central resistance of the current structure. The price remains below it, keeping selling pressure in place. The latest recovery attempt was capped by this area.

The first downside target is 7,579. This support level is important for the current structure. A breakout below it could allow the market to continue its movement towards 7,529.

After a test of the 7,579 level, a technical return towards the 7,655–7,675 area is possible. However, until the price consolidates above 7,675, such a rise would be viewed as corrective. The main scenario suggests a continued decline towards the lower boundary of the range.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 7,626
• Entry price: 7,621
• Stop loss: 7,655
• Take profit: 7,579
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.2

BTCUSD forecast

Bitcoin retains medium-term fundamental support thanks to interest from institutional investors and capital inflows into exchange-traded products. However, in the short term, the cryptocurrency remains sensitive to overall risk appetite, US dollar dynamics, and US Treasury yields.

Stronger expectations of tighter Fed policy are putting pressure on high-risk assets. At the same time, Bitcoin’s resilience after its strong August rally shows that demand for the asset remains intact. Therefore, the current correction is viewed as a move within a broader volatile structure.

On the H4 chart, BTCUSD formed a powerful upward wave from the 62,300 area to 81,465. After reaching this target, the market entered a consolidation phase and began to show signs of weakening upward momentum.

The 76,751 area is the central level of the current structure. The price is trading below this mark, which keeps the risk of a corrective wave in place. The nearest support level is 74,150.

A breakout below 74,150 would confirm a continued decline towards 72,090. This target is the lower boundary of the nearest price range and could become an area where buyers emerge.

A return above 76,751 would be the first sign of stabilisation. Consolidation above 77,900 would suggest another attempt to rise towards 79,800 and then 81,465. As long as the price remains below 76,751–77,900, the main scenario remains a corrective decline.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 77,374
• Entry price: 77,369
• Stop loss: 77,920
• Take profit: 74,150
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:5.8

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