Daily technical analysis and forecast for 3 September 2026

Daily technical analysis and forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, US 500, and BTCUSD for 3 September 2026.

Each scenario on this page reflects the market structure on the H4 chart as of 10:00 UTC+3 on 3 September 2026 and remains valid throughout the current trading day. It closes when the price reaches either the take-profit or stop-loss level, or at the end of the trading day if neither level has been reached. The assessment considers the current H4 chart structure, key support and resistance levels, the direction of the medium-term movement, and the prevailing fundamental backdrop.

EURUSD forecast

The fundamental backdrop for EURUSD remains mixed, although the US dollar retains a slight short-term advantage. The market is assessing how much the current rise in energy prices could accelerate inflation in the US and the eurozone. For the US currency, this increases the likelihood that restrictive financial conditions will remain in place for longer. In this environment, market participants remain cautious about selling the US dollar until new weak US economic data emerges.

For the euro, an additional risk comes from the eurozone economy’s dependence on imported energy. Higher oil and gas prices could weaken consumer sentiment, increase business costs, and slow the recovery in industrial activity. The European Central Bank faces a more challenging task: on the one hand, it must consider inflation risks; on the other, it must avoid placing excessive pressure on economic activity through overly restrictive policy.

The euro could receive support from easing geopolitical tensions, a weaker US dollar, or improving eurozone macroeconomic data. However, while demand for safe-haven assets remains elevated, EURUSD remains vulnerable to renewed downside attempts. Over the coming day, the most significant factors will be the price reaction to US data and movements in US Treasury yields.

On the H4 chart, EURUSD retains a corrective downward structure after completing an upward impulse near 1.1710. The late-August highs are forming progressively below the previous ones, indicating continued selling pressure. After declining towards 1.1565, the pair is attempting to stabilise near 1.1595, but the recovery has not yet gained momentum.

The nearest resistance zone is 1.1617–1.1620. It corresponds to the upper boundary of the current short-term structure and remains the key area for assessing buyer strength. As long as the price remains below this zone, sellers retain the local advantage. A breakout above 1.1620 could lead to a move towards 1.1659, although a full reversal would require consolidation above 1.1659–1.1660.

The nearest support level is located around 1.1565. A breakout below it would confirm a new downward wave towards 1.1525. This level is the main target of the current decline and also a significant demand area. If sellers consolidate below 1.1525, pressure could extend towards 1.1506.

The main scenario for the trading day suggests consolidation below 1.1617, followed by an attempt to move towards 1.1565 and 1.1525. An alternative scenario would become relevant only if the price confidently returns above 1.1620.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.1595
• Entry price: 1.1590
• Stop loss: 1.1620
• Take profit: 1.1525
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2.2

USDJPY forecast

USDJPY remains one of the pairs most sensitive to changes in US Treasury yields and overall demand for safe-haven assets. At the beginning of September, the US dollar is supported by expectations ahead of the Fed meeting and uncertainty over future inflation trends. If market participants reduce expectations for US rate cuts, yields could rise, and USDJPY could get an additional boost to recover.

At the same time, the Japanese yen retains its safe-haven status. Rising geopolitical tensions, deteriorating stock market sentiment, or a sharp fall in global risk appetite could quickly increase demand for the JPY. Therefore, USDJPY may move unevenly: there is a fundamental basis for US dollar strength, but safe-haven demand for the yen limits the potential for a strong upward momentum.

The Bank of Japan remains an important variable for the pair’s medium-term performance. Any signals pointing to further normalisation of Japanese monetary policy could strengthen the yen. However, the continued significant interest rate differential between the US and Japan is currently supporting interest in buying USDJPY on declines.

On the H4 chart, USDJPY fell sharply from the 160.30–160.40 area and reached 157.66. This move looks like a deep downward correction after the previous upward wave. Buyers reacted around 157.66, making this level a key reference point for the near-term scenario.

The price is currently hovering around 157.85. For the recovery to develop, the market needs to remain above 157.66 and break above the intermediate resistance level at 158.20. Consolidation above 158.20 would suggest a move towards 159.00. This level is the central boundary of the current structure and will determine whether the rise remains merely a technical rebound or develops into a more sustainable upward wave.

A breakout above 159.00 would open the way towards 159.84 and then 160.40. If the price returns below 157.66, buyers will lose the nearest support and the downside target will become 157.00. Below this level, the risk of a move towards 156.70–156.90 will increase.

The main scenario suggests a continued recovery towards 159.00, provided the price remains above 157.66. The buy setup requires risk management, as the late-August downward momentum has not yet been fully neutralised.

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 157.85
• Entry price: 157.90
• Stop loss: 157.55
• Take profit: 159.00
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3.1

GBPUSD forecast

The pound sterling remains influenced by expectations regarding inflation and the Bank of England’s policy path. Higher energy prices increase the risk of faster consumer price growth and may force the BoE to maintain a cautious stance. This limits the potential for a substantial weakening of the GBP, as the market cannot confidently price in rapid policy easing.

At the same time, the UK economy is sensitive to rising costs for households and businesses. If expensive energy begins to weigh noticeably on demand and business activity, the market may shift its focus from inflation to the risk of an economic slowdown. In this case, the pound would come under pressure, especially if demand for the US dollar remains high.

US dollar dynamics remain a crucial external factor for GBPUSD. Strong US data or rising US Treasury yields could increase pressure on the pair. Conversely, a weaker dollar could trigger a short-term rise in GBPUSD, but a sustained upward move would require an improvement in the UK fundamental backdrop.

On the H4 chart, GBPUSD formed a high near 1.3674 and then moved into a pronounced corrective wave. The sequence of lower highs and lower lows remains intact, indicating an advantage for sellers. The latest phase of the decline reached support at 1.3454, from which the market is attempting to form a local rebound.

The current price is around 1.3495. The nearest resistance level is the 1.3519 area. As long as the price remains below it, the rise is corrective and may be used by sellers to open new positions. A more significant resistance level is located around 1.3564–1.3565. Consolidation above this area would indicate a weakening of the short-term bearish scenario.

A decline below 1.3454 would open the way towards 1.3385. This area is the next technical target and could attract buyers after a strong downward wave. If the 1.3454 level holds, a correction towards 1.3519 is possible, but the main scenario will remain unchanged while the pair trades below 1.3565.

For the coming day, the preference remains to sell local rebounds with a target of another test of 1.3454.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.3495
• Entry price: 1.3490
• Stop loss: 1.3510
• Take profit: 1.3454
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2.4

AUDUSD forecast

The Australian dollar remains sensitive to global commodity demand, the state of the Chinese economy, and overall investor risk appetite. The Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a relatively restrictive monetary policy stance, which supports the AUD through the interest rate differential. However, a high policy rate alone does not guarantee a stronger Australian dollar if global markets shift into defensive mode.

Higher oil prices and a worsening geopolitical backdrop create mixed conditions for the AUD. Australia benefits from commodity exports, but a weaker global trade outlook and slowing industrial demand typically exert stronger short-term pressure on the currency. Chinese dynamics remain especially important as China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

A strong US dollar combined with cautious risk sentiment could limit an AUDUSD recovery. For the uptrend to resume, the pair will need either a noticeable weakening of the US dollar or a new positive impulse from commodity markets and Chinese data.

On the H4 chart, AUDUSD retains the medium-term upward structure that began from the late-July lows. However, the upward wave ended near 0.7207, where the market encountered strong resistance. A downward correction then developed towards 0.7113–0.7120, while the subsequent recovery has so far failed to consolidate above 0.7170.

The 0.7170 level is the main resistance for the coming day. It coincides with the area from which sellers previously initiated an active downward wave. As long as AUDUSD remains below this mark, a retest of 0.7128 and 0.7113 remains highly likely. A breakout below 0.7113 could extend the correction towards 0.7084.

A breakout and consolidation above 0.7170 would invalidate the nearest bearish scenario. In this case, the target would be another test of 0.7207. However, within the current structure, a local rise ending below resistance followed by a renewed decline appears more likely.

The main scenario suggests a move from 0.7166–0.7170 towards 0.7113. This sell setup is a short-term corrective trade within a broader upward structure.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 0.7171
• Entry price: 0.7166
• Stop loss: 0.7180
• Take profit: 0.7113
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3.8

USDCAD forecast

For USDCAD, the key fundamental event was the Bank of Canada’s decision to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.25%. The regulator noted that high energy prices are increasing inflation risks, while uncertainty around trade relations with the US remains a significant factor for the Canadian economy. This stance limits expectations of an imminent policy easing and could support the Canadian dollar.

At the same time, the impact of high oil prices on the CAD is not unequivocally positive. Higher export revenues support the Canadian economy, but excessively high energy prices may worsen the global growth outlook and increase safe-haven demand for the US dollar. US economic data is another factor: strong US figures could support the USD despite positive oil price performance.

Over the coming day, the pair will react to the balance between oil prices, global market sentiment, and movements in the broad US dollar index. The fundamental picture remains mixed, making the price reaction around the 1.3839 technical level especially significant.

On the H4 chart, USDCAD completed a prolonged downward wave in the 1.3744 area and formed a strong upward correction. The rise reached resistance at 1.3941–1.3948, followed by a rapid pullback. The price is currently hovering around 1.3829–1.3839, forming a consolidation after the strong move.

The 1.3839 level remains the central support of the nearest range. Holding above it creates conditions for another attempt to rise towards 1.3885. A breakout above 1.3885 would suggest a test of the 1.3935 mark and then another approach towards 1.3948. Profit-taking is likely in this area, as it has already acted as resistance.

If the price consolidates below 1.3839, the recovery structure will be disrupted. In this case, the nearest target will be 1.3800, followed by 1.3744. Therefore, a buy setup is relevant only if support holds.

The main scenario suggests a recovery from the current levels towards 1.3935. Further upside above this mark will depend on the market’s ability to break above 1.3948.

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 1.3829
• Entry price: 1.3834
• Stop loss: 1.3805
• Take profit: 1.3935
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3.5

XAUUSD forecast

Gold remains one of the instruments most sensitive to geopolitical uncertainty, US dollar dynamics, and US Treasury yields. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East support demand for safe-haven assets, while higher oil prices are raising inflation expectations. These factors create a fundamental basis for interest in XAUUSD.

At the same time, gold faces headwinds from the US dollar and bond yields. If investors expect the Fed to maintain a restrictive stance for longer, yields may remain elevated. This limits demand for gold, which does not generate interest income. Therefore, even against a strong safe-haven backdrop, the market may periodically undergo deep corrections.

Over the coming day, the balance between stronger safe-haven demand and US dollar movements will remain significant. Rising geopolitical risks could accelerate XAUUSD growth, while easing tensions would create conditions for profit-taking. The base fundamental backdrop remains moderately positive for gold, but implies high volatility.

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD completed a powerful upward momentum in the 4,670–4,700 area and then formed a deep correction. The lower boundary of the correction was reached near 4,283, where notable demand emerged. From this area, prices recovered towards 4,437, indicating an attempt by buyers to regain control of the short-term structure.

The main resistance level is located at 4,458. Consolidation above this mark would confirm the continuation of the recovery wave and open the way towards 4,525 and then 4,565. The 4,458 level is crucial, as it previously acted as a central price distribution area and could trigger renewed profit-taking.

The support level is located at 4,370. As long as prices hold above it, a rise towards 4,458 remains possible. A return below 4,370 would increase the risk of a decline towards 4,283. A breakout below 4,283 would indicate a deeper correction towards 4,215.

The main scenario suggests continued growth towards 4,458. The buy position is short-term and should be reassessed if prices return below 4,370.

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 4,437
• Entry price: 4,442
• Stop loss: 4,428
• Take profit: 4,458
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.1

US 500 forecast

The US stock market is being driven by conflicting factors. The resilience of the US economy, investment demand in the technology sector, and interest in companies linked to artificial intelligence are supporting the index. However, this support is being offset by the risks of high equity valuations, rising yields, and uncertainty over the Fed’s future policy path.

Higher oil prices increase inflation risks and could keep bond yields elevated. This is unfavourable for stocks, as higher returns on risk-free instruments reduce the appeal of expensive stock market assets. Greater geopolitical tension could also prompt investors to reduce risk in their portfolios.

At the same time, any signs of easing inflationary pressure or a cooling labour market could support expectations of a softer Fed stance. In this case, the index could recover quickly. Therefore, over the coming day, the US 500 will be particularly sensitive to news, yield movements, and investor reactions around the 7,700 and 7,575 levels.

On the H4 chart, the US 500 entered a corrective phase after forming a high in the 7,800 area. Subsequent local highs have been forming below the previous ones, confirming weakening buying momentum. The latest decline reached the 7,620 area, after which the price recovered towards 7,675.

The 7,700–7,713 area is the nearest resistance. As long as the index fails to consolidate above this zone, the recovery looks like a technical rebound within a downward correction. A stronger resistance level is located at 7,733. Only a breakout above it would allow the market to consider renewed growth towards 7,762 and 7,800.

A support level is located at 7,575. A breakout below it would confirm the sellers’ advantage and open the way towards 7,526. If the 7,575 level holds, another attempt to rise towards 7,700 is possible, although the overall short-term risk remains tilted to the downside.

The main scenario suggests a decline from the current area towards 7,575. The sell setup would be invalidated if the price consolidates above 7,700.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 7,675.4
• Entry price: 7,670.4
• Stop loss: 7,705.0
• Take profit: 7,575.0
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2.7

BTCUSD forecast

Bitcoin remains dependent on global liquidity, investor attitudes towards risk assets, and US dollar dynamics. Geopolitical uncertainty may temporarily attract interest in alternative assets, but in the short term BTCUSD often trades as a highly volatile risk asset. Therefore, deteriorating stock market sentiment can trigger Bitcoin selling alongside technology stocks.

High US Treasury yields and expectations of a restrictive Fed stance are putting pressure on the cryptocurrency market. More expensive liquidity limits demand for highly volatile assets. At the same time, institutional interest in digital assets and demand from long-term investors remain medium-term supportive factors.

The short-term fundamental backdrop for BTCUSD appears neutral to negative. A strong US dollar, rising yields, and declining risk appetite will increase pressure on the price. Conversely, a weaker dollar and stabilising equity indices could restore demand for Bitcoin. Over the coming day, price behaviour around the 76,020 support level will be crucial.

On the H4 chart, BTCUSD rose strongly from the 64,000 area and reached a high near 81,750. The market then entered a broad consolidation phase with high volatility. The current price is around 77,621 and remains below the 77,752–78,539 resistance area.

The latest recovery from 76,020 has not yet gained traction. The price failed to consolidate above 77,752, preserving the risk of another downward wave. The nearest support remains at 76,020. A breakout below this level would signal a downside exit from the short-term structure and could accelerate the decline towards 73,756.

The 73,756 mark is a crucial medium-term support level. Buyers may emerge in this area, and a new range could form. Consolidation below it would expand the downside potential towards 68,567. An alternative scenario would come into play if the price returns above 77,752. In this case, the market could test 78,539, although a stronger bullish momentum would be required to return to 81,750.

The main scenario for the day suggests an attempt to decline towards 76,020, with the potential for a further move towards 73,756 after a breakout below the support level.

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 77,621
• Entry price: 77,616
• Stop loss: 78,050
• Take profit: 76,020
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3.7

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