Daily technical analysis and forecast for 11 September 2026

Daily technical analysis and forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, US 500, and BTCUSD for 11 September 2026.

Each scenario on this page reflects the market structure on the H4 chart as of 10:00 UTC+3 on 11 September 2026. The assessment considers the current H4 chart structure, key support and resistance levels, the direction of the medium-term movement, and the prevailing fundamental backdrop.

EURUSD forecast

The trading day is unfolding against a backdrop of sharply rising inflation risks due to the energy shock and higher bond yields. The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on 10 September, citing inflation above 3% and risks of further pass-through from expensive energy into prices. The market is already allowing for additional tightening in the coming months, which is limiting pressure on the euro. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is approaching its 15–16 September meeting amid noticeably more hawkish expectations. The US Producer Price Index rose by 0.4% month-on-month in August, the strong labour market continues to leave room for tightening, and the probability of a rate hike priced into futures has risen to around 70%.

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries has approached 5%, supporting the dollar. Today, the main event is the release of US CPI: a result above expectations could strengthen the dollar further, while softer inflation could temporarily support EURUSD. Brent remains above 100 USD per barrel due to escalation in the Middle East and transport disruptions, so the market is pricing in the risk of a longer period of high interest rates. Overall, the fundamental balance remains moderately negative for EURUSD: the hawkish ECB supports the euro, but the dollar is receiving a stronger impulse from yields and safe-haven demand.

On the H4 chart, after a corrective rise towards 1.1630, EURUSD formed a downward impulse towards 1.1600 and returned below the central area of the local range. The main short-term trend is assessed as bearish. The key condition for continued movement is consolidation below 1.1600–1.1594. In this case, the way would open towards 1.1559 and then 1.1538, where the first calculated target of the third downward wave is located. The Elliott wave structure and the matrix, with a pivot around 1.1640, support the bearish scenario.

The central line of the Price Envelope is around 1.1616; while the price remains below it, sellers retain the advantage. A breakout above 1.1623 would weaken the scenario and return the market towards 1.1653. The main scenario for the day is a continuation of the decline after a brief consolidation. A more hawkish ECB stance following yesterday’s decision remains an important stabilising factor for the euro, so the move lower may develop in stages, with returns towards broken levels. Intraday, the 1.1594 area is the first signal of continued momentum, while 1.1579 is intermediate support. If demand emerges after a test of 1.1559, a local correction towards 1.1590–1.1600 is possible. However, while the structure of lower local highs remains intact, any rise should be treated as corrective rather than as a reversal of the medium-term move.

EURUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.1606
• Entry price: 1.1601
• Stop loss: 1.1623
• Take profit: 1.1538
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 12 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

USDJPY forecast

For USDJPY, the key factor remains the combination of high US yields and growing expectations of tighter policy in Japan. The Bank of Japan is reportedly considering a 25-basis-point rate increase as early as next week, which could lift the rate to 1.25%. The case for tightening strengthened after wholesale inflation data showed a 7.6% year-on-year increase in August. Additional support for the yen comes from the readiness of the Japanese authorities and the US Treasury to support orderly currency-market movements following recent coordination. However, the fundamental picture remains mixed.

Oil above 100 USD worsens conditions for Japan as a major energy importer, while the yield on 10-year US Treasuries near 5% maintains a wide yield differential in favour of the dollar. On the US side, the market is pricing in a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the 15–16 September meeting, particularly after strong PPI data and a resilient labour market. Today, attention is focused on US CPI, which could sharply alter expectations for the rate path. Therefore, the dollar may remain supported in the short term, but confirmation of BoJ tightening would create a fundamental basis for a further decline in USDJPY once the correction is complete.

On the H4 chart, the pair found support around 153.85 and recovered towards 154.64. The current structure suggests the corrective move could extend towards 154.80–154.81, where the pivot of the downward wave matrix and a significant retest area from below are located.

The main trend remains bearish: the price is still below the medium-term dynamic area and, once the correction ends, may resume the decline towards 153.85 and then 152.88. A breakout below 152.88 would confirm the development of the next downward wave, with 150.00 and 149.30 as further targets. The Elliott wave structure treats the current rise as a correction within a broader downward impulse. Only consolidation above 154.81–155.00 would materially weaken the bearish scenario. The main scenario for the day is a rise towards the resistance area followed by a downward reversal. The energy shock adds another layer of complexity: expensive oil worsens Japan’s terms of trade, but at the same time increases the likelihood of a more hawkish BoJ response to inflation.

Intraday volatility may therefore remain high. The 153.85 level is the nearest support; another breakout below it would increase pressure towards 152.88. The 154.64–154.81 area is key resistance and a potential zone where the correction may end. Sustained growth above 155.00 would require a revision of the short-term wave structure, but for now this remains the alternative scenario.

USDJPY forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 154.34
• Entry price: 154.29
• Stop loss: 154.90
• Take profit: 152.88
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 12 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

GBPUSD forecast

The pound is trading in an environment where UK-specific factors remain mixed, while the external backdrop supports the dollar. The Bank of England approaches its next decision with the policy rate at 3.75% and, according to the latest survey of economists, is highly likely to leave it unchanged. UK inflation remains above target at around 2.9%, while the renewed surge in oil prices increases the risk of faster price growth in the autumn. At the same time, a slowdown in some indicators of domestic demand and the labour market limits the BoE’s willingness to tighten policy immediately. For the pound, this means there is no clear independent growth driver.

At the same time, the US side of the pair remains more hawkish: the strong August labour market, a 0.4% monthly rise in PPI and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries approaching 5% have increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Brent above 100 USD supports the global inflation premium and weakens risk appetite. Today, the market is awaiting US CPI; a higher reading could strengthen demand for the dollar and accelerate the decline in GBPUSD. Softer data could trigger a corrective rise, although investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the central bank meetings. The fundamental backdrop at the start of the day is therefore moderately bearish for GBPUSD.

On the H4 chart, GBPUSD formed a new downward wave towards 1.3496 after rising to 1.3533 and then moved into local consolidation around 1.3500. The structure remains bearish following the reversal from the broader 1.3566 resistance area.

The downward wave matrix, with its pivot at 1.3566, confirms that seller pressure remains intact while the price stays below this level. The nearest target is in the 1.3475–1.3448 area, where the lower boundary of the Price Envelope and local support are located. A breakout below 1.3448 would extend the downside potential towards 1.3383. Within the Elliott wave structure, the current consolidation may act as a pause before the impulse continues. The main scenario would require a confident recovery above 1.3522 and then 1.3566 to be invalidated. For today, the preferred scenario is a continuation of the decline after a possible brief return towards 1.3515–1.3522.

Another factor is the rise in UK yields: higher borrowing costs simultaneously support the currency through the interest-rate differential and worsen the outlook for domestic demand. Technically, the 1.3490–1.3475 area remains the first zone where buyers may emerge, but consolidation below 1.3475 would mean an extension of the third downward wave. A return towards 1.3522 without breaking 1.3533 would preserve the sequence of lower highs. The lower target at 1.3383 would become relevant after a confident break below 1.3448.

GBPUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.3505
• Entry price: 1.3500
• Stop loss: 1.3523
• Take profit: 1.3448
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 12 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

AUDUSD forecast

The Australian dollar is caught between support from tight domestic monetary policy and pressure from a global shift away from risk. The Reserve Bank of Australia is keeping its policy rate at 4.35% after three increases earlier this year. In recent days, officials have again stressed that inflation remains too high and the economy is resilient, meaning the possibility of another rate increase at the late-September meeting remains open. At the same time, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 5.2% to 84.4 in September, reflecting the impact of expensive credit and higher fuel prices.

For the AUD, this creates a mixed picture: the high policy rate supports Australian asset yields, but weaker sentiment and the risk of softer consumption limit the currency’s upside potential. The external backdrop is unfavourable today for high-beta currencies. Brent above 100 USD, the global bond sell-off and declines in Asian equities have increased demand for the safe-haven dollar. Expectations for US CPI and a high probability of Federal Reserve tightening are adding further pressure. At the same time, expensive commodities may partly support the Australian dollar through the trade channel. Overall, the external factor outweighs domestic RBA support at the start of the day, leaving a moderately bearish fundamental bias for AUDUSD.

On the H4 chart, AUDUSD formed a sharp downward impulse towards 0.7161 after setting a new local high around 0.7238 and then moved into consolidation around this level. A break of the ascending support line and a return below the central area of the Price Envelope indicate that the previous upward trend is weakening.

The matrix of the current wave, with its pivot around 0.7161, makes this level the main intraday reference point. While the price remains below 0.7180–0.7190, the downside towards 0.7089 remains the priority. This is the first calculated target and also an important horizontal support. Below it, the next area is 0.7048. A local rise towards 0.7180 can be viewed as a correction and a retest from below. A return above 0.7210 would weaken the bearish scenario. The main scenario for the day remains a decline after consolidation ends.

Another risk for the AUD is weakness in Asian markets and global risk demand. Rising Australian bond yields support the interest-rate differential but also increase pressure on consumption. Technically, the 0.7150–0.7136 area is an intermediate demand zone. A breakout below it would increase the probability of a rapid move towards 0.7089. If the market first recovers towards 0.7180, failure to continue higher would confirm a retest of the broken support from below. Only a return above 0.7210 and consolidation above 0.7238 would restore the previous bullish structure.

AUDUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 0.7161
• Entry price: 0.7156
• Stop loss: 0.7181
• Take profit: 0.7089
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 12 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

USDCAD forecast

The Canadian dollar is receiving support from a strong oil market, although the effect is being partly offset by a stronger US dollar and a broader deterioration in risk appetite. The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% on 2 September. The regulator noted that headline inflation had approached 3%, mainly because of petrol prices, while underlying measures remain close to 2%. At the same time, the BoC warned of increased inflation risks due to expensive oil and new trade restrictions between Canada and the US.

For the CAD, Brent above 100 USD per barrel is traditionally a positive factor through export revenues and, all else being equal, limits upside in USDCAD. On the other hand, the US dollar is supported by US Treasury yields near 5%, a strong August labour market and a higher probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also strengthening safe-haven demand for the dollar. Today, the key event will be US CPI: higher inflation could temporarily push USDCAD higher, while a weak reading would strengthen the impact of expensive oil in favour of the Canadian currency. The fundamental balance is therefore mixed, but after the pair’s corrective rise, the potential for a renewed decline remains.

On the H4 chart, USDCAD recovered after correcting towards 1.3760 and is now trading above 1.3810. Locally, the market may continue towards 1.3851–1.3864, where the upper boundary of the nearest range and a descending resistance line are located.

The downward wave matrix, with its pivot around 1.3810, indicates that the current rise remains corrective within a broader bearish structure. If a reversal forms from 1.3864, the main targets will be 1.3810 and 1.3781, followed by 1.3695. A breakout above 1.3864 with consolidation would open the way towards 1.3935 and invalidate the nearest downside scenario. The Elliott wave structure allows the corrective sub-wave to end in the resistance area. Therefore, the main scenario for the day is for the rise to end and the decline to resume.

Another factor is the Canadian economy’s sensitivity to US trade policy. New tariff risks are worsening Canada’s growth outlook and may periodically weaken the CAD even when oil is expensive. Technically, the 1.3851–1.3864 area is the most important resistance of the current correction. Failure to consolidate above it would preserve the sequence of lower highs. The nearest support is at 1.3810, followed by 1.3781. A breakout below 1.3781 would confirm the end of the corrective wave and open the way towards 1.3695. If the price moves confidently above 1.3864, selling should be postponed until a new reversal structure forms.

USDCAD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.3838
• Entry price: 1.3833
• Stop loss: 1.3870
• Take profit: 1.3695
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:4

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 12 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

XAUUSD forecast

Gold is being driven by two opposing factors. On the one hand, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, disruptions to shipping and oil above 100 USD are supporting demand for safe-haven assets. On the other hand, the same energy shock has sharply increased inflation expectations and government bond yields, putting pressure on the metal by raising the opportunity cost of holding gold. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries has approached 5%, while the market estimates the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week at around 70%.

Another argument for tighter policy came from the August US PPI, which rose by 0.4% month-on-month. Today, market participants are awaiting CPI, which could become the decisive signal ahead of the Fed meeting. Hot inflation could push yields higher and increase pressure on XAUUSD, while weaker data could trigger a sharp recovery in gold. At the same time, the geopolitical premium remains elevated and limits the depth of the sell-off. Therefore, the fundamental backdrop is not unequivocally bearish, but over the short term high yields and a strong dollar give sellers the advantage until the market receives a fresh safe-haven impulse.

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD continues to form a broad corrective structure after reversing from the 4,696 area. The market broke below 4,366, reached 4,300 and is attempting to stabilise below the central area of the range.

The downward wave matrix, with its pivot at 4,366, confirms that the bearish bias remains intact. The current rise towards 4,330–4,366 is viewed as a correction and a potential retest from below. While the price remains below 4,366, the main target is another test of 4,300, followed by the lower boundary of the Price Envelope near 4,220. A breakout below 4,220 would extend the downside potential towards 4,145. To weaken the bearish scenario, the market would need to consolidate above 4,443. The Elliott wave structure also suggests continued downward momentum after the local correction ends.

On the buyers’ side, geopolitical uncertainty remains a supportive factor: further disruptions to oil supplies or another escalation could quickly restore safe-haven demand. Therefore, selling gold requires careful risk control and is particularly sensitive to today’s CPI. The 4,300–4,301 area is the nearest support. Another breakout below this zone would confirm a move towards 4,220. A corrective return to 4,366 could form a resistance retest, but consolidation above it would reduce the probability of an immediate decline. While the sequence of local highs remains downward, the preferred scenario is continuation of the bearish wave.

XAUUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 4,331
• Entry price: 4,326
• Stop loss: 4,367
• Take profit: 4,220
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 12 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

US 500 forecast

The US stock market enters the trading day under pressure from several macroeconomic factors at once. Brent has risen above 100 USD per barrel amid an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and risks to transport through key maritime routes. This has intensified concerns that the energy shock will keep inflation elevated and force the Federal Reserve to maintain tighter policy. The August PPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, while the probability of a rate hike at the 15–16 September meeting has approached 70%.

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries is near 5%, increasing the discount rate for equities and putting particular pressure on growth companies. The S&P 500 fell by around 0.6% in the previous session and ended a fourth consecutive session in negative territory, reflecting weaker market sentiment. Today, the main catalyst will be US CPI. A higher reading could trigger another rise in yields and further equity selling, while softer CPI would provide scope for a technical rebound. Corporate results from some technology companies remain supportive, but for now they are not enough to offset the macroeconomic pressure. The overall fundamental backdrop at the start of the day is cautiously negative for the US 500.

On the H4 chart, the US 500 is developing a downward structure after reversing from the 7,754 area. The market formed an impulse towards 7,585 and remains close to the lower boundary of the Price Envelope.

A small corrective rise towards 7,615–7,627 is possible, but while the price remains below the matrix pivot at 7,666, the priority is still a continuation of the decline. The nearest target is 7,566. A breakout below this support could open the way towards 7,520 and then 7,470. A return above 7,666 would weaken the bearish momentum and allow a test of 7,691. The Elliott wave structure suggests another downward move after the local consolidation ends.

An important confirmation would be consolidation below 7,585. The market is also sensitive to the performance of the technology sector, as rising rates have a particularly strong impact on the valuation of companies with long-duration cash flows. Technically, the 7,585–7,566 area is the nearest support cluster. If it holds, a return towards 7,615 and 7,666 is possible, but such a rise would still be corrective. Consolidation below 7,566 would confirm continuation of the downward wave and increase the risk of a move towards 7,520. The 7,691 level is the nearest resistance above the matrix pivot. Only a return above it would enable a more sustained recovery.

US 500 forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 7,615
• Entry price: 7,610
• Stop loss: 7,632
• Take profit: 7,566
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 12 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

BTCUSD forecast

Fundamentally, Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to global liquidity and real yields. On the morning of 11 September, the cryptocurrency is trading under pressure alongside other risk assets amid a sharp rise in oil prices, a global bond sell-off and a stronger dollar. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries has approached 5%, while the market has raised the probability of tighter Federal Reserve policy at the 15–16 September meeting to around 70%.

For BTC, this is a negative combination: high risk-free yields reduce the appeal of assets that generate no cash flow, while a stronger dollar curbs investors’ risk appetite. Another source of uncertainty is today’s US CPI release. Higher inflation could reinforce expectations of a rate hike and trigger a fresh wave of selling in the cryptocurrency market. Softer CPI, by contrast, could produce a sharp rebound through short covering and lower yields. Geopolitical tensions have not yet turned Bitcoin into a sustainable safe-haven asset: the market is reacting primarily as part of the global risk segment. Reuters reported BTC down by around 0.8% towards the 76,600 area in the morning. Therefore, the fundamental backdrop remains moderately negative ahead of the US inflation release, while volatility could rise substantially after the data.

On the H4 chart, BTCUSD formed a new downward impulse towards 76,500–76,000 after failing to hold above 79,150. The market is now consolidating around 77,600, which acts as the pivot of the current wave matrix. The structure remains bearish while the price stays below 79,150.

A possible return towards 77,600–78,000 should be viewed as a correction and a retest of the broken area. The nearest downside target is 76,000, followed by 75,565. Consolidation below 75,565 would open the way towards 72,289. The Elliott wave structure allows for continuation of the downward impulse after a brief consolidation. The main scenario would be invalidated only by a return above 79,150 and consolidation above this level. Additional pressure comes from the broader weakness in technology assets: as the cost of money rises, investors reduce risk exposure, and cryptocurrencies usually react faster than traditional markets.

High volatility ahead of CPI increases the risk of false breakouts, so confirmation by an H4 close is particularly important. The 76,093–75,565 area is a key support cluster. A breakout below it could accelerate the move towards 74,900 and then 72,289. A return above 77,600 alone would not change the trend while the price remains below 79,150. Until then, any rebounds should be treated as corrective moves within the current downward wave, with selling remaining the priority.

BTCUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 77,070
• Entry price: 77,065
• Stop loss: 77,650
• Take profit: 75,565
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 12 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

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