Daily technical analysis and forecast for 6 October 2026

Daily technical analysis and forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, US 500, and BTCUSD for 6 October 2026.

Each scenario on this page reflects the market structure on the H4 chart as of 10:00 UTC+3 on 6 October 2026. The assessment considers the current H4 chart structure, key support and resistance levels, the direction of the medium-term movement, and the prevailing fundamental backdrop.

EURUSD forecast

At the start of trading on 6 October, EURUSD remains under pressure from a strong dollar, although the fundamental picture for the US currency has become less clear-cut. The weaker-than-expected September US labour market report significantly reduced the probability of another rate hike by the US Federal Reserve as early as October. At the same time, US government bond yields remain at multi-year highs, continuing to support the dollar through the appeal of dollar-denominated assets. Therefore, the currency market’s reaction to weak US data has so far been limited.

European political and debt risks remain an additional negative factor for the euro. The widening premium on French bonds relative to German securities reflects investor concerns about France’s fiscal situation. Political uncertainty also reduces the likelihood that the European Central Bank can act more aggressively without taking risks to financial conditions into account. Against this backdrop, the fundamental balance for EURUSD remains predominantly negative.

Weaker expectations of a Fed rate hike may trigger local upward corrections in the pair, but a sustained euro reversal requires both a decline in US yields and stabilisation in the European debt market. These conditions are not yet in place.

On the H4 chart, EURUSD completed a downward wave towards 1.1161, after which a corrective recovery formed towards the 1.1229 area. The structure remains downward: the price is below the main dynamic resistance levels, while the sequence of local highs continues to decline.

The key matrix level is the 1.1220–1.1230 area. The current rise is viewed as a test of this area from below. Once the correction is complete, the baseline scenario remains another downward move towards 1.1185. A breakout below the support level would open the way towards 1.1161, with the next target at 1.1136. In the broader structure, potential remains for a move towards 1.1088.

Therefore, the priority for 6 October remains selling. Invalidation of the immediate bearish scenario would require the price to consolidate above 1.1230, followed by a recovery above the descending channel boundary.

EURUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.1200
• Entry price: 1.1195
• Stop loss: 1.1230
• Take profit: 1.1136
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.7

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 7 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

USDJPY forecast

USDJPY starts 6 October amid a confrontation between two strong fundamental factors. On the US side, the pair is supported by high Treasury yields. Despite the weak September employment report, which reduced the probability of another Fed rate hike in October, the cost of long-term financing in the US remains high. This preserves a significant yield differential in favour of the dollar and limits the yen’s appreciation potential.

On the Japanese side, the situation is gradually changing. The Bank of Japan raised the rate in September to its highest level in several decades and confirmed its readiness to continue policy normalisation. The published summary of the September meeting showed that some BoJ officials discussed the need for faster rate hikes. This provides fundamental support for the yen and increases USDJPY’s sensitivity to any decline in US yields.

Therefore, the fundamental picture is mixed. In the short term, the dollar retains the advantage thanks to yields on US assets, but further upside in USDJPY is becoming riskier. The closer the market moves towards the 159.00–160.00 area, the more important expectations of further BoJ tightening and the possibility of a response from the Japanese authorities to excessive yen weakness become.

On the H4 chart, the market has consolidated above 157.86 and is forming a continuation of the upward structure. After the local impulse, a consolidation range formed and is currently holding above the matrix pivot at 157.86.

The main scenario suggests continued growth first towards 158.28 and then 158.77. A breakout above the latter resistance level would extend the potential towards 159.36–159.40. The Elliott Wave structure and the position of the price relative to the rising support line allow the current move to be viewed as continued momentum.

At the same time, the 157.86 level is critical. A return below it would weaken buyers, while a breakout below 157.31 would create conditions for a deeper correction. Until this happens, preference remains with buying for a continuation of the established impulse. The 158.77 level is the main target for the current trading day, while 159.40 is viewed as an extended target.

USDJPY forecast scenario

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 158.08
• Entry price: 158.13
• Stop loss: 157.70
• Take profit: 158.77
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.5

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 7 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

GBPUSD forecast

The fundamental backdrop for GBPUSD remains mixed. On the one hand, weak US employment data reduced the probability of another Fed rate hike as early as October. This limits the potential for further dollar appreciation. On the other hand, the US currency continues to receive support from high government bond yields and increased demand for safe-haven dollar assets amid instability in European markets.

For the pound, the inflation situation in the UK remains a crucial factor. UK inflation accelerated to 3.1% in August, while recent service sector data points to increasing cost pressure due to high fuel prices. This supports expectations of a sufficiently tight stance from the Bank of England. The market had previously increased the probability of tighter monetary policy, providing some fundamental support to the pound.

However, this factor is still insufficient to reverse GBPUSD’s technical weakness. High US yields and sustained demand for the dollar are preventing a durable recovery in the pair. Therefore, local rises in sterling are more reasonably viewed primarily as corrections within the prevailing downward structure.

On the H4 chart, GBPUSD formed a downward wave towards 1.3189, after which a corrective recovery is developing towards the 1.3232 area. The main trend remains downward. The price is hovering below dynamic resistance levels, while the descending channel continues to determine the market direction.

The matrix pivot is located around 1.3303. While the market remains below it, sellers retain the advantage. Once the current corrective move is complete, a return towards 1.3180 is expected. A breakout below this level would open the door for a decline towards 1.3104 and then 1.3044.

In the original scenario, the 1.3044 level was designated as a correction before selling, which contradicts the current structure, as it is located significantly below the current price. Therefore, 1.3044 is more appropriately viewed as a prospective target of the downward move. For the trading day, the main target remains 1.3180, with a possible extension of the wave towards 1.3104.

GBPUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.3200
• Entry price: 1.3195
• Stop loss: 1.3256
• Take profit: 1.3104
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.5

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 7 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

AUDUSD forecast

For AUDUSD, the fundamental picture is being shaped simultaneously by domestic Australian inflation and the continued strength of the US dollar. The latest data showed that Australian inflation accelerated in August, with price pressure proving sufficiently broad-based. This preserves the risk of further tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia and, in theory, should support the Australian currency. At the same time, however, the labour market is showing signs of cooling: unemployment had previously risen to a five-year high.

The US factor currently outweighs this. The weak US employment report reduced the probability of an immediate additional Fed rate hike, but Treasury yields remain at exceptionally high levels. As a result, the dollar remains attractive from the perspective of the interest rate differential.

Overall global risk appetite is also important for AUDUSD. Gains in US technology stocks have somewhat improved investor sentiment, although high borrowing costs and geopolitical risks limit demand for high-beta currencies. As a result, the fundamental backdrop does not yet provide sufficient conditions for a sustained reversal higher in the Australian dollar.

On the H4 chart, AUDUSD retains a pronounced downward structure. The market previously reached 0.6903 and formed a corrective rise from this level. On 6 October, there is potential for the correction to continue towards 0.6983, although such growth is still viewed solely as a move against the main trend.

The downward wave matrix has a pivot in the 0.7025–0.7029 area. The price is significantly below this zone, while the descending channel remains relevant. Once the correction is complete, priority shifts to a return towards 0.6943 and then 0.6905.

A breakout below 0.6905 would confirm continuation of the main downward wave and open the way first towards 0.6860 and then 0.6814. Only consolidation above 0.7029 would materially change the technical configuration. Therefore, corrective growth should be used to look for an entry point for a continued decline.

AUDUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 0.6969
• Entry price: 0.6964
• Stop loss: 0.7000
• Take profit: 0.6905
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.6

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 7 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

USDCAD forecast

The fundamental backdrop continues to support the USDCAD uptrend. On 5 October, the Canadian dollar fell to around an 18-month low against the US currency. Pressure on the CAD comes from both a stronger US dollar and signs of weakness in the Canadian economy. The latest service sector activity index pointed to contraction for the fourth consecutive month, increasing doubts about the economy’s ability to sustain high interest rates.

An additional factor is the yield differential between US and Canadian bonds. The widening interest rate differential has been one of the main drivers of the Canadian currency’s recent decline. The Bank of Canada must take weak economic growth into account, while US yields remain near multi-year highs. This preserves the dollar’s advantage even after the weak US employment report.

The commodity factor has a mixed effect. Oil prices remain high due to geopolitical risks, which is traditionally positive for the CAD, although increased Middle Eastern exports and the use of strategic reserves have somewhat reduced concerns about supply shortages. Therefore, the oil market is not yet providing sufficient support for the Canadian currency.

On the H4 chart, USDCAD retains a powerful upward structure. The market reached the 1.4292–1.4306 area and moved into local consolidation above 1.4235. The price remains above the main dynamic support levels, so the decline is still viewed as corrective.

The pivot of the broader matrix is located around 1.4000. The nearest support zone has formed at 1.4235–1.4201. Holding this area creates conditions for another upward impulse towards 1.4306. A breakout above resistance would bring the next target of 1.4319 into view.

At the same time, a move below 1.4201 would change the short-term picture and create potential for a correction towards 1.4149. Until such a signal appears, the main scenario suggests completion of the current consolidation followed by continued upward movement.

USDCAD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 1.4274
• Entry price: 1.4279
• Stop loss: 1.4235
• Take profit: 1.4306
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:0.6

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 7 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

XAUUSD forecast

Gold remains under the influence of two opposing groups of factors. The main source of pressure is high US government bond yields and a strong dollar. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries is near multi-year highs, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not generate interest income. It is precisely the combination of rising yields and a stronger dollar that has been one of the main factors behind the metal’s latest decline.

On the other hand, weak US employment data reduced the probability of another Fed rate hike as early as October. If this trend continues and yields begin to fall, gold could receive fundamental support. For now, however, the debt market does not confirm such a reversal.

Geopolitical uncertainty and central bank demand provide long-term support for the metal. Central bank representatives emphasise gold’s continued role as a strategic reserve asset despite rising global yields. However, over the short term, the impact of interest rates and the dollar remains stronger than safe-haven demand.

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD continues a stable downtrend. After forming a sequence of lower highs, the market broke below the 4,136 area and reached 4,100. Prices remain below dynamic resistance levels and within the downward structure.

The matrix pivot is located around 4,308. Its distance from current prices highlights the strength of the established bearish wave. On 6 October, a compact consolidation around 4,100 is likely, followed by a continued decline.

The first target is 4,046. Once it is reached, a short-term technical correction is possible, although a breakout below this level would create potential for a move towards 4,020 and then 3,927.

To change the short-term scenario, gold needs to return above 4,136, while a more meaningful improvement in the structure would require a recovery above 4,215.

Therefore, the main direction remains downward, while local recoveries are viewed as corrective moves within the bearish trend.

XAUUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 4,159
• Entry price: 4,154
• Stop loss: 4,215
• Take profit: 4,046
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.8

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 7 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

US 500 forecast

The US stock market starts 6 October with relatively resilient risk appetite. The day before, the S&P 500 rose by around 0.7% and approached its all-time high, while the Nasdaq gained about 1.1% and set a new record. Stocks were supported by large technology companies and reduced expectations of another Fed rate hike in October following weak US labour market data.

At the same time, the fundamental backdrop cannot be considered unequivocally favourable. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose to around 5.3%, creating serious competition for stocks and increasing discount rates applied to future corporate earnings. High yields are particularly important for the technology sector, whose valuations are sensitive to the cost of capital.

The market is therefore balancing between weaker expectations of further Fed tightening and a high actual cost of borrowing. Geopolitics and energy prices remain additional sources of volatility. While the corporate sector and technology stocks continue to support risk demand, the main fundamental impulse for the US 500 remains moderately positive, although the probability of corrections is elevated.

On the H4 chart, after declining towards 7,710, the US 500 formed a strong recovery impulse and reached the 7,797 area. The market has effectively returned to the upper boundary of the local Price Envelope and is simultaneously testing a significant dynamic resistance level.

The matrix pivot is located in the 7,717 area. While the index holds above this level, the bullish scenario remains the priority. After the impulse towards 7,797, a corrective move towards 7,757–7,711 may develop. Such a decline would not disrupt the main upward structure.

Once the correction is complete, another impulse towards 7,895 is expected. A breakout above 7,895 would extend the potential towards 7,922. Therefore, buying is preferable not directly at the resistance level but after a local pullback or confirmed consolidation above 7,797.

US 500 forecast scenario

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 7,794
• Entry price: 7,799
• Stop loss: 7,711
• Take profit: 7,895
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.1

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 7 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

BTCUSD forecast

Bitcoin starts 6 October amid improving global risk appetite but is simultaneously facing pressure from high US bond yields. The weak September US employment report reduced expectations of another Fed rate hike in October, which is a moderately positive factor for cryptocurrencies: a lower risk of further monetary tightening supports demand for highly volatile assets.

However, long-term US yields remain very high. This limits capital inflows into Bitcoin because risk-free dollar instruments offer investors attractive returns. It is precisely the combination of softer expectations regarding the Fed’s next decision and persistently high bond yields that explains the lack of a confident BTC breakout above the nearest resistance levels.

At the same time, the medium-term technical and market picture has become more resilient. Bitcoin has recovered by more than 40% from the lows at the start of the year, while the long-term moving averages have formed a structure consistent with a recovery of the uptrend. Sustained demand in the spot market remains an additional condition for further growth.

On the H4 chart, after a strong upward move, BTCUSD formed a local high and shifted into a corrective-consolidation structure. The current price is around 85,255, very close to the matrix pivot at 85,323.

The most important support is located around 84,712. For 6 October, the base scenario suggests an initial corrective move into this area. Holding 84,712 would create conditions for a recovery towards 85,832 and then 87,490. The next target is 88,065.

Therefore, a decline towards 84,712 is viewed not as a reversal of the main trend but as a correction before a potential continuation of growth. A confident breakout below 84,712 would be a critical signal: in this case, the structure would weaken, and the market could return towards the 83,000 area. While the support level holds, preference remains with the bullish scenario, targeting a retest of the 87,490–88,065 area.

BTCUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 85,255
• Entry price: 85,260
• Stop loss: 84,712
• Take profit: 87,490
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:4.1

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 7 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

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