Daily technical analysis and forecast for 13 October 2026

Daily technical analysis and forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, US 500, and BTCUSD for 13 October 2026.

Each scenario on this page reflects the market structure on the H4 chart as of 10:00 UTC+3 on 13 October 2026. The assessment considers the current H4 chart structure, key support and resistance levels, the direction of the medium-term movement, and the prevailing fundamental backdrop.

EURUSD forecast

In the currency market, the main factor for EURUSD remains the balance of expectations for the monetary policies of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. Traders are assessing the outlook for interest rate changes, inflation trends, and the resilience of economic activity in both regions. Persistently elevated US government bond yields could support the dollar, limiting the euro's recovery potential.

Eurozone industrial production figures, consumer demand, and business activity are also significant factors. A slowing European economy alongside a resilient US labour market creates conditions for continued pressure on EURUSD. Meanwhile, falling US Treasury yields could trigger a short-term dollar correction and a recovery in the pair.

During the trading session, market participants will focus on changing expectations for the Fed's future decisions, debt market movements, and overall investor risk appetite. In the absence of a pronounced fundamental catalyst, technical levels could determine the short-term direction. The main scenario remains continued pressure on the euro, with possible corrective rallies.

On the H4 chart, EURUSD continues to develop a downward wave structure. After declining to 1.1150, the market staged a correction towards 1.1170. Today, consolidation around 1.1184 is expected, with the possibility of a brief recovery towards 1.1185. Consolidation above this resistance level would allow the correction to extend towards 1.1222, where the matrix pivot point is located.

The main trend remains downward. Once the correction is complete, a decline towards 1.1150 is expected, followed by a test of the 1.1124 level. A breakout below this support would open the door for a move towards 1.1110 and subsequently 1.1040.

The Elliott wave structure suggests that the downward momentum may continue after the local corrective phase ends. The lower boundary of the Price Envelope runs through 1.1124, while the 1.1222 area acts as key resistance. Selling remains the priority.

EURUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.1176
• Entry price: 1.1171
• Stop loss: 1.1226
• Take profit: 1.1040
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2.38

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 14 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

USDJPY forecast

USDJPY movements are driven primarily by differences between the Fed and the Bank of Japan's monetary policies. Higher US government bond yields relative to Japanese instruments continue to support demand for the dollar. However, the possibility of further interest rate normalisation in Japan limits the potential for sustained yen weakness. Investors are assessing Japanese inflation, wage trends and domestic consumption.

Persistent price pressures could fuel expectations for tighter BoJ policy. Conversely, signs of slowing economic activity could support the regulator's cautious approach and preserve the US currency's advantage.

Another factor is USDJPY's sensitivity to changes in yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds. Rising yields favour dollar strength, while falling yields create conditions for a corrective recovery in the yen. As the exchange rate approaches psychologically important levels, attention to possible statements by Japan's financial authorities about exchange rate volatility increases. At this stage, the fundamental backdrop allows for further gains in the pair, although the risk of sharp corrections remains.

On the H4 chart, USDJPY broke above the 158.22 resistance level and formed an upward impulse towards 158.73. The subsequent correction ended around 158.21, followed by consolidation above key support.

Today, the primary scenario suggests further growth towards 158.99. A breakout above this resistance level would pave the way for a move towards 159.50. A test of 160.13 remains possible further ahead.

The upward wave matrix has its pivot point at 158.22. This level coincides with the central area of the Price Envelope and provides a foundation for further growth. The Elliott wave structure allows for another upward impulse following the local correction.

An alternative scenario suggests a fall below 158.00. In this case, a deeper correction towards 157.97 and then 156.50 would become more likely. As long as the market holds above the matrix centre, buyers hold the upper hand. The nearest target is 158.99.

USDJPY forecast scenario

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 158.28
• Entry price: 158.33
• Stop loss: 157.95
• Take profit: 159.50
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3.08

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 14 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

GBPUSD forecast

The British pound remains sensitive to the monetary policy outlook for the Bank of England and the Fed. The main factor is inflationary pressure supported by high energy costs. Rising oil prices increase the risk of a renewed acceleration in consumer prices, limiting the scope for monetary easing.

Market participants are awaiting further comments from BoE officials on interest rates. Persistent inflation risks support expectations of restrictive policy by the British regulator. However, dollar resilience and elevated US bond yields limit GBPUSD's recovery potential. The UK's budget outlook, domestic demand, and business activity data are also influential. Uncertainty over future government spending could increase volatility in the pound.

In the US, the upcoming release of the consumer price index remains the key event. Higher inflation could strengthen expectations of further Fed rate hikes. Under this scenario, pressure on the British currency could persist. Short-term corrections are possible as US bond yields decline, but the overall fundamental balance does not yet provide buyers with a sustainable advantage.

On the H4 chart, GBPUSD continues to develop a downward structure. After reaching 1.3202, the market staged a corrective rise towards 1.3222. Today, another downward impulse is possible, initially targeting 1.3193.

The matrix pivot point is located at 1.3249, which acts as a key resistance level. As long as prices remain below this mark, the Elliott wave structure remains predominantly bearish.

A breakout below 1.3193 would open the door for successive declines towards 1.3157 and 1.3125, with the next targets at 1.3119 and 1.3061. The lower boundary of the Price Envelope lies around 1.3088, while the longer-term target for the continuation of the trend is 1.3055.

A corrective rise towards 1.3249 could temporarily delay the decline but would not change the main scenario without sustained consolidation above the resistance level. Selling remains preferable today.

GBPUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.3222
• Entry price: 1.3217
• Stop loss: 1.3252
• Take profit: 1.3119
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2.80

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 14 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

AUDUSD forecast

The Australian dollar is influenced by expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy, developments in China's economy, and overall demand for risk assets. Published minutes of the RBA meeting confirm that the regulator remains focused on inflation risks, limiting expectations of rapid monetary easing.

Deteriorating sentiment on Asian equity markets is putting additional pressure on AUDUSD. Falling technology shares and growing geopolitical uncertainty encourage reduced demand for currencies sensitive to the global economic cycle.

Conditions in China, Australia's largest trading partner, remain important. Changes in demand for iron ore, industrial metals and energy resources directly affect the outlook for Australian exports.

On the US currency side, attention is focused on US inflation statistics and expectations for future Fed decisions. Persistently high interest rates support the dollar. Together, these factors create a predominantly unfavourable backdrop for the Australian currency, although short-term corrections remain possible.

On the H4 chart, AUDUSD formed a downward wave, reaching the 0.6949 support level. Following the decline, a narrow consolidation emerged, reflecting a temporary balance between buyers and sellers.

Today, the downward move is expected to continue towards 0.6924, followed by a test of 0.6919. If the price consolidates below these levels, the next target will be 0.6903.

The matrix pivot point is located at 0.7025. It serves as a key resistance level and confirms that the main downtrend remains intact. The Elliott wave structure indicates that another downward impulse may form after the local correction ends.

A recovery towards 0.6972 could lead to renewed selling pressure. The lower boundary of the Price Envelope marks a potential target at 0.6810. The bearish scenario remains the priority until the price decisively breaks above the 0.7025 resistance level.

AUDUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 0.6962
• Entry price: 0.6957
• Stop loss: 0.6995
• Take profit: 0.6903
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.42

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 14 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

USDCAD forecast

The Canadian dollar continues to respond to changing oil prices, expectations for Bank of Canada policy, and movements in the US currency. The energy sector plays a significant role in Canada's economy, so higher oil prices generally support its currency.

Early in the week, the oil market experienced heightened volatility amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, a subsequent decline in oil prices limited support for the Canadian dollar. Risks of accelerating global inflation due to high energy costs also persist.

Expectations for future Fed policy are particularly significant for USDCAD. High US bond yields help sustain investment demand for the dollar. Meanwhile, changes in forecasts for BoC interest rates can influence the yield differential between the two currencies.

Other factors include the Canadian labour market, consumer demand, and trade relations with the US. With the US dollar remaining strong and no sustained recovery in the oil market, fundamental conditions allow USDCAD to rise further. Short-term corrections nevertheless remain part of the upward structure.

On the H4 chart, USDCAD formed an upward wave, reaching the 1.4285 resistance level. Following the local high, the market declined towards 1.4267 and began to form a narrow consolidation range.

Today, an initial correction towards 1.4253 is possible. This level corresponds to the centre line of the Price Envelope and acts as the nearest support.

The upward wave matrix has its pivot point at 1.4141. Prices holding above this level confirm the buyers' advantage within the medium-term structure.

Once the correction ends, a renewed rise towards 1.4301 is expected. A breakout above the resistance level would open the way towards 1.4340.

The Elliott wave count suggests another upward impulse, while an alternative scenario implies a decline below 1.4253, with a test of the 1.4222 level.

As long as the indicated support holds, buying remains preferable, targeting new local highs.

USDCAD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 1.4269
• Entry price: 1.4274
• Stop loss: 1.4220
• Take profit: 1.4340
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.22

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 14 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

XAUUSD forecast

Gold continues to trade under the influence of conflicting fundamental factors. On the one hand, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East support safe-haven demand for the precious metal. On the other hand, high interest rates and elevated US government bond yields limit the potential for sustained price growth.

Today, 13 October, investors are focused on the upcoming release of US inflation data. The Consumer Price Index is expected on Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index on Thursday. These figures could substantially change expectations for future Fed policy.

Oil market movements are another influence. Falling oil prices have somewhat eased concerns about a further acceleration in inflation. However, persistent geopolitical risks sustain uncertainty over future energy costs.

If expectations for higher interest rates intensify, the dollar could gain further support, putting pressure on gold. Meanwhile, falling US bond yields could trigger a corrective rise in the precious metal. In the short term, the market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic releases and changes in the geopolitical situation.

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD formed an upward correction towards 4,216, followed by a decline to 4,153. Today, a narrow consolidation range may develop around this level, followed by a recovery in prices.

The initial upside target is the 4,197 resistance level. A breakout above this mark would extend the correction towards 4,239, where the downward wave matrix pivot point is located.

The Elliott wave structure allows for the corrective recovery to end around 4,239, followed by a resumption of the main downward move.

The Price Envelope defines intermediate support at 4,151. A breakout below this level would open the way for a decline towards 4,104. A further wave towards 4,067 and 4,032 is then expected.

The longer-term downside target remains the 3,965 area. As long as prices remain below the matrix pivot point at 4,239, sellers retain the technical advantage. The corrective rise is viewed as a preparatory stage before the decline continues.

XAUUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 4,184
• Entry price: 4,179
• Stop loss: 4,245
• Take profit: 4,032
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2.23

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 14 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

US 500 forecast

The US stock market remains sensitive to government bond yields, inflation expectations and corporate earnings prospects. The main uncertainty is the impact of high energy prices on future Fed decisions.

In the previous session, US stock indices showed mixed performance. The S&P 500 declined slightly, while the industrial sector demonstrated relative resilience. Pressure on technology companies increased amid a reassessment of investment prospects in artificial intelligence and the semiconductor industry.

On Asian markets, technology stocks fell significantly on 13 October, reflecting deteriorating global risk appetite. At the same time, investors are shifting their attention to the start of the earnings season for major US banks.

The release of US inflation figures will be the key macroeconomic event of the coming trading sessions. Higher inflation could increase expectations for further monetary tightening, putting pressure on equity valuations.

Nevertheless, resilient corporate earnings could support buyers. As a result, the fundamental backdrop remains mixed, allowing the index to extend its gains while short-term volatility stays elevated.

On the H4 chart, the US 500 staged a corrective decline towards 7,793 before forming a recovery impulse towards 7,805. Today, consolidation may continue below a local resistance level before an upside breakout.

The upward wave matrix has its pivot point at 7,760. Prices holding above this level confirm the buyers' advantage.

The nearest resistance level is located at 7,816. A breakout above it would allow the move to extend towards 7,850. An upward wave towards 7,895, corresponding to the upper boundary of the Price Envelope, is then expected.

The Elliott wave structure suggests another upward impulse after the local correction ends. Upon reaching 7,895, the market could pull back towards 7,816 before recovering again.

The longer-term target remains 7,900. An alternative scenario suggests a fall below 7,760, with the correction extending towards 7,702. As long as the main support level holds, buying remains preferable.

US 500 forecast scenario

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 7,804
• Entry price: 7,809
• Stop loss: 7,755
• Take profit: 7,895
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.59

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 14 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

BTCUSD forecast

The Bitcoin market continues to be influenced by global liquidity conditions, movements in the US dollar and investor appetite for risk assets. Elevated US government bond yields limit the appeal of cryptocurrencies by encouraging capital to shift towards fixed-income instruments.

Geopolitical tensions and high energy costs create additional pressure. Investors fear that persistent inflationary pressure will force the Fed to maintain restrictive monetary policy for an extended period.

Today, Bitcoin is recovering after falling below 81,000. A return above 83,000 indicates demand around local lows, despite worsening sentiment on Asian equity markets.

The upcoming publication of US consumer and producer inflation figures will be an important event in the next few days. Higher readings could strengthen the dollar and increase pressure on the cryptocurrency market. Conversely, declining inflation expectations could support a recovery in demand.

Institutional investor activity, capital flows into cryptocurrency funds and conditions in derivatives markets are also important. Fundamental conditions allow the corrective phase to continue, although sustained demand around key support levels creates conditions for a subsequent recovery.

On the H4 chart, BTCUSD staged a corrective decline towards 81,040 before recovering towards 83,833. Today, the price may continue to rise towards this resistance level before forming another downward correction.

Initial support is at 82,672. A breakout below this level would create conditions for a move towards 80,118 and then 79,905.

The upward wave matrix has its pivot point around 81,333. This level serves as a key reference point for assessing buyers' resilience.

The Elliott wave structure allows for the correction to end near the lower boundary of the Price Envelope at 79,905. Once a base forms, a recovery towards 84,535 is expected.

A breakout above the 84,535 resistance level would open the way for further growth towards 88,065, the longer-term target of the upward wave.

The main scenario suggests the correction ending first, followed by renewed growth. Sustained consolidation below 79,905 would increase the likelihood of a deeper decline.

BTCUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 83,694
• Entry price: 83,699
• Stop loss: 79,850
• Take profit: 88,065
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.13

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 14 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

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