Daily technical analysis and forecast for 15 October 2026

Daily technical analysis and forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, US 500, and BTCUSD for 15 October 2026.

Each scenario on this page reflects the market structure on the H4 chart as of 10:00 UTC+3 on 15 October 2026. The assessment considers the current H4 chart structure, key support and resistance levels, the direction of the medium-term movement, and the prevailing fundamental backdrop.

EURUSD forecast

The euro remains sensitive to changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank’s monetary policies. Data released on 14 October showed US annual inflation accelerating to 3.7%, initially supporting the dollar and strengthening expectations of further interest rate hikes. However, a subsequent decline in US government bond yields limited the dollar's gains.

Fed officials remain cautious about the timing of any further monetary tightening. Upcoming producer inflation and retail sales data, alongside comments from the central bank's leadership, are becoming decisive for market participants. Persistently high inflation restricts the scope for easing financial conditions.

In the eurozone, additional factors include the state of industrial production, France's fiscal risks, and movements in European bond markets. Differences in the interest rate outlooks of the ECB and Fed continue to determine EURUSD's medium-term direction. Despite the euro's local recovery, the fundamental picture does not yet clearly confirm a reversal of the downtrend.

On the H4 chart, EURUSD completed another downward wave near 1.1112 before forming a corrective impulse towards the 1.1235 resistance level. The main trend remains bearish, as successive local highs continue to decline.

Today, 15 October, consolidation around 1.1197 is expected. This range is viewed as an intermediate continuation pattern within the decline. A breakout below support at 1.1176 would pave the way for a retest of the 1.1112 level. Consolidation below this mark would open the way towards 1.1053 and then 1.1012.

The Elliott wave structure and the downward matrix with a pivot at 1.1222 support a bearish bias. The 1.1235 level acts as the nearest resistance, limiting corrective gains. The lower boundary of the Price Envelope lies around 1.1053.

A move above resistance at 1.1270 would weaken the main scenario and require a reassessment of the short-term market structure.

EURUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.1208
• Entry price: 1.1203
• Stop loss: 1.1240
• Take profit: 1.1053
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:4.05

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 16 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

USDJPY forecast

The Japanese yen continues to react to movements in US government bond yields and expectations regarding central bank decisions. Accelerating US inflation initially strengthened the dollar, but the subsequent fall in Treasury yields led to a partial recovery in the Japanese currency.

The Fed maintains a cautious stance, as persistent inflationary pressure requires restrictive financial conditions to remain in place. At the same time, policymakers are not unanimous about the need for an immediate interest rate hike. This uncertainty is contributing to greater intraday volatility in USDJPY.

Bank of Japan policy remains particularly significant for the yen, especially the prospects for interest rate normalisation and the movement of Japanese government bond yields. The yield differential between US and Japanese instruments remains a key driver of the exchange rate.

On the H4 chart, USDJPY formed an upward impulse to 158.94 before correcting downwards to support at 157.57. A consolidation range is forming near this level and could provide a basis for renewed growth.

Today, 15 October, the preferred scenario is a recovery to 158.25 followed by an advance towards 158.97. A breakout above this resistance level would open up potential gains towards 159.54 and the upper boundary of the Price Envelope at 160.06.

The Elliott wave structure and the upward matrix with a pivot at 156.50 continue to favour the bullish scenario. The 157.57 level is the nearest support. A decisive breakout below it would open the way for a correction towards 156.50.

After the price hits the 160.06 level, the likelihood of profit-taking and a reversal wave will increase. The primary scenario therefore suggests further initial growth, followed by an assessment of buyer strength near the Envelope's upper boundary.

USDJPY forecast scenario

Trading scenario: BUY

• Price at the time of writing: 157.91
• Entry price: 157.96
• Stop loss: 157.45
• Take profit: 160.06
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:4.12

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 16 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

GBPUSD forecast

The British pound continues to trade under the influence of conflicting signals from the US economy and expectations surrounding Bank of England policy. Accelerating US consumer inflation has increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high, which remains a restraining factor for GBPUSD.

Meanwhile, falling US government bond yields and a weaker dollar have created conditions for a corrective recovery in sterling. Market participants are assessing how sustainable the change in expectations for the Fed's next decisions will prove.

In the UK, attention is focused on economic growth, industrial production, and domestic demand. Earlier upward revisions to UK GDP figures fuelled expectations that the BoE would maintain a restrictive policy. However, the economic outlook remains mixed owing to high borrowing costs.

On the H4 chart, GBPUSD declined to support at 1.3138 before forming a recovery impulse towards 1.3257. The current structure suggests consolidation directly below this resistance level.

Today, 15 October, corrective growth towards 1.3255–1.3303 remains possible. However, this movement is viewed as a temporary recovery within a broader downtrend.

The Elliott wave structure and the downward matrix with a pivot at 1.3363 confirm continued selling pressure. The market previously reached the lower boundary of the Price Envelope at 1.3138, where the correction began.

After the recovery ends, another downward impulse towards 1.3138 is expected. A breakout below support would open up the prospect of a decline towards 1.3050 and 1.3035.

Consolidation above 1.3303 would weaken the immediate sell signal, while a move above 1.3363 would require a reassessment of the main bearish scenario.

GBPUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.3234
• Entry price: 1.3229
• Stop loss: 1.3308
• Take profit: 1.3050
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2.27

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 16 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

AUDUSD forecast

The Australian dollar remains under pressure from deteriorating domestic labour market figures and weakening global risk appetite. Statistics released on 15 October showed that Australian employment fell by 39.3 thousand people. Unemployment remained at 4.7%, above the monetary authorities' forecast benchmarks.

These results increase uncertainty surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia's future decisions. Despite ongoing inflationary pressure, deteriorating employment conditions limit the scope for further interest rate hikes. Market participants are reassessing the likelihood of tightening at the next meeting.

The state of the Chinese economy also remains a crucial factor for the Australian dollar. Accelerating Chinese exports support the outlook for external demand, but trade tensions and weakness in certain domestic indicators limit the positive impact. Taken together, fundamental factors still favour the continuation of the AUDUSD downtrend.

On the H4 chart, AUDUSD continues to move within an established bearish structure. After declining to 0.6961, the market attempted to stabilise, but the recovery was capped by the 0.7015 resistance level.

Today, 15 October, the preferred scenario is a continued decline from current levels towards 0.6928 and 0.6910. The latter level corresponds to the lower boundary of the local Price Envelope and is viewed as the nearest target for sellers.

The Elliott wave structure and the downward matrix with a pivot at 0.7015 confirm a bearish bias. As long as the price remains below this level, recovery moves should be regarded as corrective.

After a test of 0.6910, an upward move towards 0.6961 is possible. However, consolidation above 0.7015 would be required to change the short-term trend.

A breakout below support at 0.6910 would intensify selling pressure and open the way for a further decline within the main wave structure.

AUDUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 0.6940
• Entry price: 0.6935
• Stop loss: 0.6970
• Take profit: 0.6910
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:0.71

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 16 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

USDCAD forecast

The Canadian dollar remains dependent on movements in the US currency, oil prices, and differences between the two countries' monetary policies. Accelerating US inflation raised expectations that the Fed would keep interest rates high for longer, initially supporting an upward move in USDCAD.

Subsequently, declining US government bond yields limited the dollar's gains. However, persistent uncertainty about the Fed's next policy steps continues to create conditions for increased volatility in the currency pair.

The Bank of Canada is holding its target interest rate at 2.25%. Meanwhile, headline consumer inflation remains elevated relative to the central bank's midpoint target. Domestic demand and labour market conditions determine the room for future policy decisions.

The oil market is an additional factor.

On the H4 chart, USDCAD completed an upward impulse in the resistance area around 1.4297 before correcting downwards to 1.4195. Subsequent consolidation indicates weakening buyer activity.

Today, 15 October, a continued downward correction is considered possible, with the nearest target at 1.4152, corresponding to the lower boundary of the local Price Envelope.

The Elliott wave structure and the matrix with a pivot at 1.4257 confirm that a corrective phase is forming after an extended rise. As long as the price remains below this level, sellers hold the upper hand.

After the price reaches the 1.4152 level, a recovery impulse towards 1.4225, corresponding to the Envelope's centre line, is possible.

A breakout below 1.4152 would strengthen bearish momentum and open the way towards 1.4077. A return above 1.4257 would increase the likelihood of a retest of the 1.4297 resistance level.

USDCAD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.4218
• Entry price: 1.4213
• Stop loss: 1.4262
• Take profit: 1.4152
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.24

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 16 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

XAUUSD forecast

The gold market is showing heightened volatility amid changes in expectations for Fed interest rates and movements in the US dollar. Following the release of higher US inflation figures, the precious metal came under pressure as the likelihood of additional monetary tightening increased.

However, the subsequent decline in Treasury yields and weakening dollar helped revive demand for gold. During trading on 15 October, prices rose towards 4,134 dollars per troy ounce, reflecting continued investor interest in safe-haven instruments.

Deteriorating sentiment across global equity markets is providing additional support. Selling in technology shares and concerns about the cost of financing artificial intelligence infrastructure are increasing the appeal of defensive assets.

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD formed a downward wave towards 4,074 before staging a recovery impulse to 4,160. The current structure indicates the development of a corrective range within the prevailing downtrend.

Today, 15 October, consolidation near 4,135–4,160 is expected, followed by a renewed decline. The nearest support level is 4,126, a breakout below which would create conditions for a move towards 4,074.

The Elliott wave structure and the downward matrix with a pivot at 4,222 confirm the sellers' advantage. This level remains key resistance within the structure under consideration.

The main target is the lower boundary of the Price Envelope at 4,037, with scope for a further decline towards 4,025. A move above 4,160 would temporarily strengthen the corrective rise, but only consolidation above 4,222 would cast doubt on the bearish scenario.

XAUUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 4,135
• Entry price: 4,130
• Stop loss: 4,170
• Take profit: 4,037
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2.33

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 16 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

US 500 forecast

The US stock market is under pressure from rising inflation expectations and continuing uncertainty about the Fed's future decisions. Published US consumer inflation figures exceeded forecasts, heightening concerns about an extended period of high interest rates.

Technology shares are experiencing the most notable pressure, particularly companies involved in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Investors are assessing the risks of higher debt burdens and financing costs for large-scale investment programmes.

A further negative factor is deteriorating global risk appetite. Sharp declines in Asian stock indices reflect the spread of cautious sentiment across international markets. Market participants are revising company valuations to reflect a higher cost of capital.

At the same time, declining US government bond yields could temporarily support stock indices. Strong corporate results from individual companies are also limiting the scale of selling.

Over the next session, interest rate expectations, upcoming economic releases, and quarterly earnings reports will remain decisive factors.

On the H4 chart, the US 500 index formed a downward impulse from the 7,840 area to support at 7,708. The sharp decline was accompanied by breakouts below intermediate levels, indicating increased seller activity.

Today, 15 October, consolidation below the 7,708 resistance level is expected. If selling pressure persists, a further move towards 7,575, corresponding to the lower boundary of the Price Envelope, is likely.

The Elliott wave structure and the downward matrix with a pivot at 7,707 confirm that the bearish scenario is the most likely outcome. As long as the index remains below this level, recovery moves are considered corrective.

After the price hits 7,575, an upward move towards 7,707 is possible. However, a sustained recovery would require consolidation above 7,719, followed by a move above 7,767.

If selling intensifies, the next support is around 7,563. A return above 7,767 would weaken the current bearish structure and set the stage for a deeper upward correction.

US 500 forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 7,692
• Entry price: 7,687
• Stop loss: 7,727
• Take profit: 7,575
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2.80

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 16 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

BTCUSD forecast

Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to changes in global liquidity, US dollar movements and investor sentiment in equity markets. Accelerating US inflation has increased uncertainty about the Fed's future monetary policy, restricting demand for higher-risk assets.

Persistently high interest rates make fixed-income instruments more attractive while increasing investors' required potential returns from cryptocurrencies. Under these conditions, Bitcoin remains sensitive to changing expectations about borrowing costs.

The correction in the US technology sector is adding pressure. Falling shares of companies associated with artificial intelligence are accompanied by declining risk appetite among market participants. Such changes can amplify cryptocurrency price fluctuations.

Meanwhile, a weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields are creating conditions for a local recovery in BTCUSD. Institutional capital flows, liquidity on cryptocurrency exchanges, and derivatives market activity remain highly significant.

On the H4 chart, BTCUSD formed a bearish structure after completing a corrective recovery to 82,162. The subsequent decline brought prices into the support area around 80,251, where the market is attempting to stabilise.

Today, 15 October, an initial test of the 80,251 level is expected, followed by corrective growth towards 82,164. This mark is the nearest recovery target within the prevailing bearish structure.

The Elliott wave model and the downward matrix with a pivot at 83,598 confirm the predominance of sellers over the broader move. As long as the price remains below this resistance, recovery impulses are viewed as corrective.

After the advance towards 82,164 ends, another downward wave towards 79,781 is expected.

A breakout below 79,781 would pave the way for a further decline. Conversely, consolidation above 83,598 would weaken the main scenario and open the door for a more prolonged upward correction.

BTCUSD forecast scenario

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 80,915
• Entry price: 80,910
• Stop loss: 82,210
• Take profit: 79,781
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:0.87

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 16 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

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