Daily technical analysis and forecast for 22 October 2026

Daily technical analysis and forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, US 500, and BTCUSD for 22 October 2026.

Each scenario on this page reflects the market structure on the H4 chart as of 10:00 UTC+3 on 22 October 2026. The assessment considers the current H4 chart structure, key support and resistance levels, the direction of the medium-term movement, and the prevailing fundamental backdrop.

EURUSD forecast

The euro remains influenced by diverging economic prospects in the eurozone and the US. The European Central Bank must balance weak business activity against persistent inflation risks. Political instability in France, budgetary problems, and rising French government bond yields are putting additional pressure on the euro, limiting its potential for a sustained recovery.

The US Federal Reserve remains cautious following an acceleration in US inflation. September's Consumer Price Index reached 3.7% year-on-year, reinforcing expectations that restrictive financial conditions will persist. However, falling US bond yields are temporarily weakening the dollar and allowing EURUSD to correct upwards.

In the near term, the pair will depend on central bank officials' comments, US labour market data and changes in government bond yields. The fundamental backdrop remains mixed, although European risks continue to constrain the euro's upside potential.

On the H4 chart, EURUSD declined to 1.1210 before correcting towards 1.1255. Today, 22 October, a broad consolidation range may form below the 1.1269 resistance level.

The Elliott wave structure suggests the completion of the corrective fourth wave, followed by the development of a fifth downward wave. The matrix identifies its pivot at 1.1268, which acts as key resistance.

As long as prices remain below this level, the bearish scenario takes priority. A breakout below support at 1.1210 would open the way towards 1.1180 and then 1.1100. The next target is the lower boundary of the Price Envelope at 1.1085.

Consolidation below this area would create conditions for a continued medium-term decline towards 1.0800. An alternative scenario suggests an upward breakout of 1.1269 and an extension of the correction towards 1.1378.

The primary scenario remains selling after confirmation that the current consolidation has ended. Prices remaining below the matrix pivot will confirm sellers' advantage during the upcoming trading session.

EURUSD forecast scenario

USDJPY forecast

The Japanese yen continues to respond to changes in interest rate expectations in the US and Japan. The Bank of Japan allows for further monetary policy normalisation as inflation remains close to its target. The prospect of higher borrowing costs supports the yen, although the significant yield differential between US and Japanese bonds limits its appreciation.

The US dollar faces short-term pressure from falling Treasury yields. Market participants are assessing the likelihood of further Fed tightening following accelerating inflation. Higher oil prices are also increasing global inflation risks and putting pressure on Japan's energy-import-dependent economy.

Geopolitical uncertainty remains another factor that could stimulate demand for safe-haven currencies. However, a sustained increase in US yields could once again support USDJPY.

Heightened volatility is likely to persist in the short term. Investors are focusing on BoJ signals, bond yields and the forthcoming Fed meeting.

On the H4 chart, USDJPY completed an upward wave around 158.58 before entering a correction. The decline reached 157.65, after which a local consolidation range formed.

The Elliott wave structure indicates the possibility of a corrective phase within a larger upward movement. The matrix pivot is at 156.40, which remains the main medium-term support.

The central line of the Price Envelope runs near 158.21. Failure to consolidate above it increases the likelihood of a further decline towards 157.65 and then the Envelope's lower boundary at 156.50.

Once the correction ends, a recovery towards 157.66 is possible. A breakout above this level would allow buyers to test 158.43 again.

Subsequently, growth towards the upper boundary of the Envelope at 160.06 is possible. However, this scenario requires a sustained upward momentum.

For the upcoming trading session, a short-term decline is favoured. The main reference point is around 156.50, where the prospects for renewed buying will be assessed.

USDJPY forecast scenario

GBPUSD forecast

Sterling is receiving support from the latest UK macroeconomic indicators. Accelerating consumer inflation has increased expectations of further monetary policy tightening. The Bank of England must account for persistent price pressures despite risks of slower economic growth.

Strong UK labour market indicators have further strengthened the national currency. Against this backdrop, sterling has gained noticeably against the euro and recovered against the US dollar.

At the same time, the GBPUSD outlook depends on Fed decisions. Persistently high US inflation supports expectations of restrictive monetary policy and limits the potential for further dollar weakness.

UK government bond yields also remain important. Rising yields may support sterling, but they also increase borrowing costs and create risks for economic activity.

In the short term, the fundamental backdrop favours sterling, although technical overbought conditions following the recent recovery increase the likelihood of a correction. The market will closely assess new comments from BoE officials and US economic data.

On the H4 chart, GBPUSD formed local support around 1.3364 before advancing towards resistance at 1.3407.

Today, the corrective rise may end, and a consolidation range may form immediately below the high reached.

The Elliott wave structure suggests the end of an upward correction within a larger bearish pattern. The matrix pivot is located at 1.3370.

The upper boundary of the Price Envelope is around 1.3407.

Failure to break sustainably above this resistance level would set the stage for renewed selling.

The initial downside target is 1.3351, followed by 1.3322 and 1.3295. If the downward momentum intensifies, the next medium-term target will be 1.3131.

An alternative scenario suggests consolidation above 1.3407, opening the way for a further upward correction.

The preferred scenario for the current trading session is a decline after the consolidation ends.

Confirmation would come from prices returning below the pivot at 1.3370.

GBPUSD forecast scenario

AUDUSD forecast

The Australian dollar remains sensitive to changes in monetary policy and global risk appetite. The Reserve Bank of Australia continues to take a firm stance on inflation, supporting the national currency. The latest data showed annual inflation accelerating to 4.0% in August from 3.5% a month earlier.

Market participants are assessing the likelihood of another interest rate hike at upcoming RBA meetings. Rising inflation risks increase the appeal of Australian assets, but they also threaten to slow domestic demand.

The Chinese economy is another influence, as China remains Australia's most important trading partner. Changes in demand for iron ore and other commodities directly affect the outlook for Australian exports.

The US dollar is under pressure from a correction in US government bond yields. Nevertheless, expectations that the Fed will maintain restrictive policy limit the potential for AUDUSD gains.

In the short term, the fundamental picture remains mixed. Support from the RBA is offset by risks of a global slowdown and geopolitical uncertainty.

On the H4 chart, AUDUSD completed an upward correction towards the 0.7023–0.7035 area, after which signs of weakening buying activity emerged.

Today, consolidation may form around 0.7023, followed by a downward wave.

The Elliott wave structure allows for the corrective rise to end and the main downward movement to resume. The matrix pivot is at 0.7023.

The upper boundary of the Price Envelope is near 0.7035. As long as the market remains below this resistance level, sellers retain the advantage.

The initial downside target is 0.6999, followed by a move towards 0.6964, the next significant support area.

A breakout below 0.6964 would open the door for a decline towards 0.6919. A test of 0.6872 is possible thereafter.

An alternative scenario suggests consolidation above 0.7035 followed by a recovery towards 0.7074.

For the current trading session, selling is preferred with an initial target at 0.6964. A downward impulse below the matrix pivot would confirm this scenario.

AUDUSD forecast scenario

USDCAD forecast

The Canadian dollar continues to be influenced by oil prices, interest rates, and North America's economic growth outlook. Heightened oil price volatility is linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and risks of disruptions to energy supplies.

Rising oil prices traditionally strengthen the Canadian dollar because of the energy sector's significant role in the country's economy. However, increasing global inflation risks also support expectations that US interest rates will remain high.

The Bank of Canada must consider domestic inflation, labour market conditions, and the consumer demand outlook when determining future monetary policy. US economic performance is also important, as the US remains Canada's main trading partner.

Falling US government bond yields temporarily limit dollar strength. Nevertheless, persistent inflation risks could support demand for the US currency.

In the near term, USDCAD's direction will depend on oil prices, expectations of Fed and BoC decisions, and investors' overall attitude towards risk assets.

On the H4 chart, USDCAD formed a local upward correction towards 1.4081 before resuming its decline towards 1.4032.

Today, a narrow consolidation range may form near the support reached.

The Elliott wave structure indicates that the final part of the downward move is developing. The downward matrix retains its pivot in the 1.4132–1.4171 area.

Prices are currently near the lower boundary of the Price Envelope at 1.4032. A brief extension of the decline towards 1.4007 cannot be ruled out.

However, approaching the lower boundary increases the likelihood of buyers emerging and an upward correction forming.

The initial recovery target is 1.4081. A breakout above this resistance would open the way towards 1.4132 and then 1.4171.

Growth towards 1.4195, the next significant resistance, is possible thereafter.

For the current session, buying is preferred once the downward impulse has been confirmed as complete. The main recovery target is the 1.4171 area. Sustained consolidation below 1.4007 would require a reassessment of the bullish scenario.

USDCAD forecast scenario

XAUUSD forecast

The global gold market remains under pressure from rising inflation risks and expectations that restrictive US monetary policy will persist. Higher oil prices amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East create additional conditions for accelerating consumer prices.

Against this backdrop, investors are reassessing the outlook for Fed interest rates. The prospect of borrowing costs remaining high for an extended period limits the appeal of gold, which pays no interest.

US government bond yields are another factor. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal and encourage capital to shift towards income-generating instruments.

At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty supports safe-haven demand for gold. However, the market's current reaction suggests that interest rates and inflation expectations are temporarily exerting a greater influence than safe-haven demand.

In the near term, investors will assess US employment data, inflation indicators and comments from Fed officials. Together, these factors suggest that gold volatility will remain elevated.

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD continues to form a downward wave structure. After falling to the 4,066 area, the market attempted to stabilise, but no sustained upward impulse has yet formed.

Today, a narrow consolidation range may develop near the support reached. The Elliott wave structure allows for a local correction before the main decline continues.

The matrix pivot is at 4,212, which remains the key resistance for the current downward wave.

Under the corrective scenario, quotes could rise towards 4,104 and then 4,127. However, prices remaining below these resistance levels would confirm sellers' advantage.

Once the correction ends, the decline is expected to resume towards 4,068 and 4,054, corresponding to the lower boundary of the Price Envelope.

A breakout below this area would open the door for a further move towards 4,029.

An alternative scenario suggests consolidation above 4,127 followed by a recovery towards 4,212.

Selling remains preferable for the upcoming trading session. The main target is the 4,054 area, while confirmation would come from a new downward impulse after the local correction ends.

XAUUSD forecast scenario

US 500 forecast

The US stock market continues to show resilience thanks to positive corporate earnings and sustained investor interest in the technology sector. Following trading on 21 October, the S&P 500 rose by approximately 0.6% to 7757 points. Companies involved in artificial intelligence development received additional support.

Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop remains mixed. Elevated US inflation strengthens expectations that Fed monetary policy will remain restrictive for a prolonged period. High government bond yields increase financing costs and put pressure on equity valuations.

The oil market is another source of uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East create risks of higher energy costs and slower economic growth.

Market participants continue to assess quarterly earnings from major US corporations, focusing on profits, capital expenditure and management forecasts.

In the short term, positive corporate results could support stock indices, although high interest rates and inflation risks increase the likelihood of corrective movements.

On the H4 chart, the US 500 completed an upward wave around 7,773, after which a local consolidation range formed below the resistance reached.

Today, a downward breakout from the range followed by a corrective wave is possible.

The Elliott wave structure allows for the upward impulse to end and a deeper correction to begin.

The matrix pivot is at 7,739, acting as key resistance within the current downward structure.

As long as prices remain below this level, sellers hold the upper hand.

The initial downside target is 7,701. A move towards 7,662 and the lower boundary of the Price Envelope at 7,626 is then expected.

After reaching this area, a corrective recovery towards 7,701 and then 7,739 is possible.

An upward breakout of 7,739 would open the potential for a retest of the 7,773 level.

For the upcoming trading session, selling is preferred with the main target at 7,626. Confirmation would come from consolidation below the nearest support at 7,701.

US 500 forecast scenario

BTCUSD forecast

The cryptocurrency market continues to be influenced by global liquidity, interest rate expectations and changes in investor risk appetite. Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to US stock indices and government bond yields.

The recent recovery in the technology sector is helping improve sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. However, persistent inflation risks limit the potential for sustained growth in digital assets.

Expectations of further Fed tightening create conditions for dollar financing costs to remain high. This is particularly important for speculative instruments sensitive to changes in the availability of capital.

Institutional investor activity remains another factor. Changes in demand for exchange-traded cryptocurrency products could amplify short-term Bitcoin fluctuations.

Geopolitical tensions and instability in the oil market increase the likelihood of sharp changes in global risk sentiment. Under these conditions, cryptocurrencies can experience significant price swings even without major changes in internal market factors.

In the near term, BTCUSD's direction will depend on the dollar, US bond yields and the resilience of the stock market.

On the H4 chart, BTCUSD formed an upward correction towards 84,851, after which signs of weakening buying activity appeared.

Today, the corrective phase may end and the downward movement resume.

The Elliott wave structure suggests another downward impulse within a broader corrective pattern.

The matrix pivot is at 83,531, serving as a key reference point for the current structure.

The upper boundary of the Price Envelope is located near 84,851. Failure to consolidate sustainably above it confirms limited upside potential.

The initial downside target is 82,224, followed by moves towards 81,916 and 80,923.

A breakout below these support levels would open the way for a continued downward wave towards 79,621, corresponding to the lower boundary of the Price Envelope.

An alternative scenario suggests a return above 83,531 and a retest of the 84,506 and 84,851 levels.

For the current trading session, selling is preferred. The main target is the 79,621 area, while confirmation would come from sustained consolidation below the nearest support levels.

BTCUSD forecast scenario

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