Daily technical analysis and forecast for 28 October 2026

Daily technical analysis and forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, US 500, and BTCUSD for 28 October 2026.

Each scenario on this page reflects the market structure on the H4 chart as of 10:00 AM UTC+3 on 28 October 2026. The assessment considers the current H4 chart structure, key support and resistance levels, the direction of the medium-term movement, and the prevailing fundamental backdrop.

EURUSD forecast

The main influence on EURUSD movements is the balance of expectations regarding the monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Market participants are assessing the interest rate outlook, persistent inflationary pressures and the state of the US economy. Ahead of the central banks' next decisions, changes in US Treasury yields and short-term borrowing cost expectations are particularly important.

For the European currency, industrial activity, consumer demand and business confidence indicators in the eurozone remain additional factors. Slowing economic growth amid persistent inflation risks limits the ECB's scope to adjust monetary conditions. At the same time, the resilience of the US labour market could support the dollar, particularly if investors revise their expectations for further Fed policy easing.

Geopolitical uncertainty and fluctuations in global risk appetite could also boost demand for the US currency. In the near term, the fundamental backdrop suggests that EURUSD will remain highly sensitive to statements by central bank officials. Unless new factors emerge to support the euro, sellers may retain the advantage.

On the H4 chart, EURUSD completed another downward leg around 1.1113. Local consolidation above the low is expected today. The main structure remains bearish as the market continues to form lower highs and lower lows.

The previously formed broad consolidation range around 1.1222 is viewed as a continuation pattern within the downtrend. This level is also the matrix pivot centre and an important resistance level.

The break below support at 1.1155 confirmed the development of another downward wave. The nearest target is 1.1035, corresponding to the lower boundary of the price Envelope. A correction towards 1.1100 may follow, before the decline resumes. If the price consolidates below 1.1035, the next medium-term target is 1.0793.

The Elliott wave structure and the price's position below the main dynamic resistance levels confirm the sellers' advantage. Invalidating the immediate bearish scenario would require a recovery above 1.1155, followed by sustained consolidation above 1.1222.

EURUSD forecast scenario

USDJPY forecast

USDJPY movements are driven by differences in monetary conditions between the US and Japan. Market participants are primarily focused on the outlook for decisions by the Fed and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), as well as changes in US government bond yields. The persistent positive interest rate differential supports the appeal of dollar-denominated assets, although expectations of further normalisation of Japanese monetary policy could limit the pair's upside.

Inflation, wage trends and the resilience of domestic consumer demand remain important factors for the Japanese currency. Signs of persistent inflation could strengthen expectations of tighter BoJ policy. At the same time, changes in global risk appetite influence demand for the yen as a safe-haven asset.

The Japanese Ministry of Finance's stance on excessive exchange rate fluctuations is another source of uncertainty. As the exchange rate approaches local highs, the market may become more sensitive to official comments.

During the upcoming session, the main fundamental reference point remains the reaction of dollar-denominated instruments to expectations of central bank decisions. Stable US bond yields would likely sustain moderate demand for the dollar, although sharp corrective moves cannot be ruled out.

On the H4 chart, USDJPY completed an upward wave towards the 158.01 area. A compact consolidation range is now forming below the high. The main short-term structure points to a continued recovery from the previously established low.

The upward wave matrix has its pivot centre at 157.44. This level coincides with the central area of the price Envelope and marks the boundary for maintaining the near-term bullish scenario.

Today, growth towards resistance at 158.56 is expected. After testing this area, a correction towards 157.50–157.44 is possible, which would be viewed as an intermediate leg of the upward structure.

If support at 157.44 holds, the buyers' next target will be 158.78–158.80, corresponding to the upper Envelope boundary. The Elliott wave count allows the recovery to continue after the corrective pullback.

A break below 157.44 would increase the likelihood of a deeper correction. The next significant support would then be the 156.48 area. As long as the price holds above the matrix's central level, the preferred scenario remains the development of an upward wave.

USDJPY forecast scenario

GBPUSD forecast

The British pound remains influenced by expectations regarding the future monetary policies of the Bank of England (BoE) and the Fed. The main factors remain UK inflation trends, labour market conditions and the economic growth outlook. Market participants are assessing whether persistent price pressures will allow the UK regulator to maintain restrictive monetary conditions.

Consumer demand is another important factor. Weak business activity and cautious households could strengthen expectations of BoE policy easing. However, persistent inflation risks limit the scope for rapid interest rate cuts.

On the US side, Wednesday's key event will be the Fed's decision. Particular attention will be paid to the accompanying comments on inflation, economic activity and the outlook for further rate changes. More hawkish rhetoric could strengthen the dollar and increase pressure on GBPUSD.

Changes in energy prices remain an external factor influencing UK inflation expectations. Amid heightened uncertainty, investors may reduce their sterling positions. The combination of fundamental factors does not yet provide a solid basis for a pound recovery, so the US dollar may retain the advantage.

On the H4 chart, GBPUSD continues to develop a downward wave after forming a local high near 1.3405. The subsequent decline confirmed the end of the corrective recovery and the market's return to its main downward direction.

The price is currently around 1.3294, below the centre line of the price Envelope. The matrix pivot centre is at 1.3344, marking the key resistance area.

Today, a brief period of consolidation above 1.3275 is expected. The decline is then expected to continue towards 1.3266, followed by a test of support at 1.3240.

A break below this level would open the way towards 1.3131. The downward wave could subsequently extend towards 1.3064.

The Elliott wave structure points to the possibility of another downward impulse. The price's position below dynamic resistance and the downward direction of the local channel confirm the sellers' dominance.

A corrective rise towards 1.3344 would be viewed as a possible retest of resistance from below. A recovery above 1.3369 would weaken the current bearish scenario.

GBPUSD forecast scenario

AUDUSD forecast

The Australian dollar remains sensitive to changes in global risk appetite, the state of China's economy and interest rate expectations. Market participants are primarily focused on the monetary policy outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Fed.

Inflation, employment and consumer activity indicators remain important for the Australian economy. Persistent inflationary pressure could sustain expectations that restrictive financing conditions will remain in place. However, signs of slowing domestic demand could limit the potential for the national currency to strengthen.

Developments in Chinese industry are another influence. China remains Australia's most important trading partner, so changes in demand for iron ore and other commodities directly affect expectations for export revenues.

Today's forthcoming Fed decision is an additional source of volatility. Continued hawkish rhetoric from the US regulator could increase demand for the dollar and pressure on AUDUSD.

Changes in the geopolitical situation and energy prices also affect investor attitudes towards commodity currencies. In an uncertain environment, market participants may favour dollar-denominated assets. The fundamental backdrop suggests continued heightened volatility, with a risk that the Australian dollar will resume its decline.

On the H4 chart, AUDUSD completed a corrective upward wave towards resistance at 0.7056. After reaching this area, a consolidation range formed around 0.7020.

The downward wave matrix has its pivot centre at 0.7025. This level defines the near-term balance between buyers and sellers.

Today, the range may extend again towards 0.7040–0.7053. However, the main scenario remains a resumption of the decline after the correction ends.

The first target is 0.6994. Consolidation below this support would create conditions for a move towards the lower boundary of the price Envelope at 0.6935.

Another downward impulse towards 0.6878 could then develop. A more distant target is 0.6815.

The Elliott wave structure allows for the corrective recovery to end and another downward wave to begin. A break above 0.7056 would weaken this scenario and create conditions for the correction to continue towards 0.7129.

AUDUSD forecast scenario

USDCAD forecast

The Canadian dollar is influenced by expectations for Bank of Canada (BoC) monetary policy, oil market movements and the US economic outlook. Today, 28 October, the BoC is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision and publish an updated monetary policy report. These events could significantly change short-term USDCAD movements.

Investors are assessing the persistence of Canadian inflation, labour market conditions and consumer demand. Signs of slowing economic activity could strengthen expectations of more accommodative policy. At the same time, persistent inflation risks limit the scope for reducing borrowing costs.

The oil market remains the most important external factor. Higher oil prices driven by geopolitical risks and supply concerns could support the Canadian currency. However, rising energy prices also increase inflationary pressures in the US and could support the dollar through expectations of tighter Fed policy.

Today's meeting of the US regulator creates further uncertainty. USDCAD's reaction will depend not only on the two central banks' decisions but also on differences in their assessments of the inflation and economic growth outlook. Market participants are likely to remain cautious until the decisions are released.

On the H4 chart, USDCAD completed a downward wave around 1.3969 before forming a corrective recovery. The price has now approached resistance at 1.4065.

The downward wave matrix has its pivot centre at 1.4156. This level remains the main reference point for assessing the depth of the correction.

Today, a compact consolidation range is expected to develop above support at 1.4011. Consolidation above 1.4065 would open the way for growth towards 1.4125.

The next target is 1.4156, corresponding to the upper boundary of the price Envelope under consideration. Reaching this area would amount to a retest of the matrix's key resistance from below.

The Elliott wave structure allows for the development of a corrective upward sequence within a larger downward move. Holding above 1.4011 supports the near-term bullish scenario.

A break below support at 1.3968 would invalidate the expectation of a continued recovery and increase the likelihood of a new downward wave.

USDCAD forecast scenario

XAUUSD forecast

The gold market remains highly sensitive to changes in US government bond yields, dollar movements and expectations for Fed monetary policy. Today's key event will be the US regulator's interest rate decision and the subsequent press conference.

As of Wednesday morning, gold is under pressure amid rising oil prices and associated inflation concerns. Higher energy costs could help keep interest rates elevated, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain another factor. Risks of oil supply disruptions could increase demand for safe-haven assets. However, the positive impact of geopolitical uncertainty on gold could be partly offset by a stronger dollar and higher bond yields.

Market participants are also awaiting the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is used to assess inflationary pressure. Higher readings could support expectations that the Fed will maintain restrictive policy.

In the near term, the fundamental backdrop remains mixed. Safe-haven demand could support occasional corrective recoveries, but high yields on dollar-denominated assets continue to limit gold's potential for sustained growth.

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD continues to move within a downward structure. The market previously formed a downward wave towards 3,975, followed by a local recovery towards 4,082.

The price is currently around 4,036. The downward wave matrix has its pivot centre at 4,145, which remains key resistance.

Today, a compact consolidation range is expected to form around 4,029. A corrective rise towards 4,067–4,082 is possible, where the resistance area of the descending price Envelope lies.

Once the recovery ends, the main scenario remains a continuation of the decline towards 3,975. A break below this support would create conditions for a move towards 3,935 and 3,913.

The next target is 3,896, with the possibility of the downward wave extending towards the 3,880 area.

The Elliott wave structure allows for another downward impulse to form after the local correction ends. Consolidation above 4,082 would weaken the near-term bearish scenario and increase the likelihood of a recovery towards 4,145.

XAUUSD forecast scenario

US 500 forecast

The US stock market is awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision. Investors are primarily focused on the borrowing cost outlook, inflation trends and the resilience of corporate profits. Today's central bank meeting could determine the short-term direction of stock indices.

Market participants are assessing the likelihood that interest rates will remain unchanged. However, the Fed leadership's comments on future decisions will be most important. More hawkish signals could push up government bond yields and increase pressure on equities.

The ongoing corporate earnings season is another factor. Particular attention is being paid to the results of major technology companies, trends in artificial intelligence investment and future earnings forecasts. Positive corporate results could support the stock market even when the cost of capital is elevated.

Rising oil prices and persistent geopolitical tensions create additional inflation risks. Higher energy costs could negatively affect companies' operating expenses and consumer activity.

In the near term, the market will react to the combination of Fed decisions, corporate results and changes in bond yields. Unless new negative signals emerge, the index retains the potential to recover after the local correction ends.

On the H4 chart, the US 500 index formed an upward wave towards 7,707, followed by a corrective decline. The price is currently consolidating around 7,729.

The upward wave matrix has its pivot centre at 7,712. This level defines the near-term equilibrium area and acts as the main support for the short-term structure.

Today, consolidation above 7,707 may continue. If support holds, an upward move towards resistance at 7,741 is expected.

A break above this level would create conditions for further growth towards 7,808, corresponding to the upper boundary of the price Envelope.

The Elliott wave structure suggests that the corrective leg may end and a new upward impulse may form.

However, an initial decline towards 7,663, followed by a test of 7,615, cannot be ruled out. The latter level is viewed as the lower Envelope boundary and important support.

Consolidation below 7,615 would weaken the bullish scenario. As long as the index holds above the matrix's central area, continued growth remains the preferred scenario.

US 500 forecast scenario

BTCUSD forecast

The Bitcoin market continues to react to changes in global liquidity, movements in the US dollar and expectations for Fed monetary policy. Today's decision by the US regulator could significantly affect the short-term direction of the cryptocurrency market.

The main factor remains investors' assessment of the interest rate outlook. Persistently restrictive financial conditions increase the appeal of interest-bearing instruments and may curb capital inflows into high-risk assets. Conversely, more accommodative signals from the Fed could support demand for cryptocurrencies.

US stock market movements, particularly in the technology sector, are another important factor. During periods of greater risk appetite, Bitcoin often shows a positive correlation with technology company shares.

Market participants are also assessing institutional demand, capital flows through exchange-traded funds and changes in open interest in the cryptocurrency derivatives market. Deleveraging could be accompanied by sharp price fluctuations.

Geopolitical uncertainty and rising oil prices create additional inflation risks. Under such conditions, Bitcoin could come under pressure alongside other risk assets.

The fundamental backdrop for the upcoming trading session points to heightened volatility. The direction will depend on market participants' reaction to Fed statements and changes in investors' overall attitude towards risk.

On the H4 chart, BTCUSD completed a corrective decline towards the 79,225 area before forming a local upward structure.

The price is currently around 80,930. The nearest resistance is 81,343, a break above which would create conditions for the recovery to continue.

The downward wave matrix retains its pivot centre at 83,540. This level serves as the main reference point for the current corrective structure.

Today, another test of support at 79,225 from above is possible. Holding this level would confirm the formation of a local base and increase the likelihood of continued growth.

The buyers' first target is 81,343. A further upward move towards 82,591 is then expected, with the prospect of reaching 83,544.

The Elliott wave structure allows for a corrective upward sequence within a larger downtrend.

A break below 79,225 would invalidate the immediate bullish scenario and create conditions for a decline towards 77,339. As long as support holds, corrective growth remains the preferred scenario.

BTCUSD forecast scenario

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