Daily technical analysis and forecast for 3 November 2026

Daily technical analysis and forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, US 500, and BTCUSD for 3 November 2026.

Each scenario on this page reflects the market structure on the H4 chart as of 10:00 AM UTC+3 on 3 November 2026. The assessment considers the current H4 chart structure, key support and resistance levels, the direction of the medium-term movement, and the prevailing fundamental backdrop.

EURUSD forecast

The euro remains vulnerable amid sustained demand for the US dollar and changing monetary policy expectations. At its October meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates in the 3.75–4.00% range, highlighting persistent inflation risks. The US ISM manufacturing index released on 2 November rose to 55.5 points from 54.5 previously. These figures confirm the resilience of the US economy and support expectations that monetary conditions will remain tight.

The European Central Bank must also take inflation risks into account, although the eurozone's growth outlook remains an important constraint. The forthcoming preliminary estimate of October inflation could change market expectations for interest rates. Energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty are additional influences.

Today, investors are focusing on the US congressional midterm elections, JOLTS job openings data, and factory orders. Short-term EURUSD fluctuations may intensify in these conditions, although the fundamental backdrop continues to favour the US dollar.

On the EURUSD H4 chart, the market formed a downward wave towards the 1.1105–1.1170 area before staging a corrective recovery to 1.1209. The current structure is characterised by consolidation below resistance at 1.1222, the pivot of the downward wave matrix.

The Elliott wave structure allows for the corrective leg to end and another downward impulse to develop. Holding below 1.1222–1.1237 remains the main condition for this scenario. A rebound downwards from this area would set the stage for a retest of 1.1170.

A breakout below 1.1170 would open the way towards 1.1137 and then 1.1105. Medium-term targets are 1.1033 and 1.0733. A return above 1.1237 would weaken the current bearish scenario. Selling remains the preferred approach for the upcoming trading session.

EURUSD forecast scenario

USDJPY forecast

The Japanese yen continues to be influenced by the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, US government bond yields, and expectations for further action by monetary authorities. The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance amid persistent inflationary pressure, supporting the appeal of dollar-denominated assets.

The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, is assessing the persistence of domestic inflation, wage developments, and economic growth prospects. The possibility of further monetary tightening limits the yen's downside potential, although the substantial yield differential continues to support USDJPY.

The prospect of foreign exchange intervention by Japan's Ministry of Finance if the yen's depreciation accelerates is another factor. As prices approach the psychologically important 160.00 area, market participants may become more sensitive to official statements.

Today is Culture Day in Japan, which could reduce domestic market liquidity. At the same time, US economic data and congressional midterm elections could affect dollar movements. Consequently, the fundamental backdrop allows for further USDJPY gains, although the risk of sharp corrective movements remains elevated.

On the USDJPY H4 chart, the market formed an upward wave towards resistance at 157.97 before entering a local consolidation range. The current price is near 157.91, leaving scope for further gains.

The Elliott wave structure and the upward wave matrix highlight the importance of the pivot at 157.50. Holding above this level confirms that the bullish structure remains intact. The current model allows for an initial corrective decline to test 157.50 from above.

Once the correction ends, another upward impulse is expected, initially targeting 158.08. A breakout above this resistance would open the way towards the Price Envelope's upper boundary near 158.60.

The next target is 159.16, with the medium-term one remaining 160.06. A decline below 157.50 would weaken the bullish scenario and open the door for a test of the 157.14 support level. Buying in anticipation of continued gains remains the main scenario for today.

USDJPY forecast scenario

GBPUSD forecast

Sterling remains dependent on interest rate expectations and the state of the UK economy. The Bank of England continues to assess persistent inflationary pressure, wage trends, and signs of weakening domestic demand. Its forthcoming meeting on 5 November is one of the week's key events for the British currency.

Market participants are considering the possibility of an interest rate change and paying particular attention to the outlook for subsequent decisions. More hawkish signals could support sterling, while cautious assessments of economic growth may limit its appreciation.

The US dollar is supported by the resilience of the US manufacturing sector and persistent inflation risks. The October ISM index showed an expansion in business activity, increasing investors' focus on the possibility of further Fed tightening.

Changes in global risk appetite ahead of the US midterm elections are another factor for GBPUSD. Greater political uncertainty could increase demand for safe-haven dollar assets. The near-term fundamental picture remains mixed, but prices trading close to resistance create conditions for a corrective decline.

On the GBPUSD H4 chart, the market formed an upward corrective structure and reached resistance in the 1.3430–1.3448 area. Following a test of the Price Envelope's upper boundary, a consolidation range is developing around 1.3410.

The downward wave matrix identifies 1.3410 as its central pivot. With prices currently near 1.3420, a final corrective leg could develop before the decline resumes.

The Elliott wave structure suggests that the local upward correction may be nearing completion. An additional rise towards 1.3430 is possible, but sustained consolidation above 1.3448 would cast doubt on the main selling scenario.

If a downward reversal develops, the first target will be support at 1.3360. A breakout below it would open the way towards 1.3272, a significant horizontal boundary within the current structure.

The next downside target lies near 1.3260. For the upcoming session, selling from the resistance area remains preferable, with a corrective wave expected to develop towards the Price Envelope's lower boundary.

GBPUSD forecast scenario

AUDUSD forecast

The Australian dollar is influenced by decisions of its central bank, conditions in the Chinese economy, and US dollar movements. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on 3 November, making its interest rate decision the main event of the current trading session for AUDUSD.

Amid persistent inflationary pressure, market participants are considering the possibility of further monetary tightening. Updated inflation and growth forecasts, together with comments from the central bank's leadership, are particularly important. A more hawkish stance could temporarily support the Australian currency, although expectations may already be largely priced in.

Developments in China, Australia's largest trading partner, are another influence. The outlook for industrial production, commodity consumption, and investment activity directly affects demand for the Australian dollar.

The US currency is supported by resilient macroeconomic data and expectations that interest rates will remain elevated. Meanwhile, political uncertainty ahead of the US elections could limit investor interest in risk assets. Together, these factors point to heightened AUDUSD volatility, with a continuing risk of further declines.

On the AUDUSD H4 chart, the market completed an upward correction near 0.7067 before forming a downward wave towards the 0.6987 area. The current structure is characterised by a breakout below the short-term ascending channel.

The downward wave matrix identifies 0.6984 as its central pivot. Consolidation around this level reflects a struggle between buyers and sellers, but prices remaining below resistance at 0.7005 favour the bearish scenario.

The Elliott wave structure suggests another downward impulse after the local correction ends. A decline towards 0.6954 is expected today, followed by a test of this area.

An initial recovery towards 0.7000–0.7005 cannot be ruled out, but this would be regarded as a correction within the main downward movement.

A breakout below support at 0.6941 would open the way towards 0.6893, with the medium-term target at 0.6815. A return above 0.7028 would reduce the likelihood of the main scenario playing out. Selling remains preferable.

AUDUSD forecast scenario

USDCAD forecast

The Canadian dollar continues to respond to changes in oil prices, US dollar movements, and expectations concerning future monetary policy. The Bank of Canada considers inflation figures, labour market conditions, and economic growth prospects when determining the future path of interest rates.

The oil market has a significant influence on the Canadian currency. Oil prices fell considerably during the previous trading session despite persistent geopolitical tensions. Weaker oil prices could limit demand for the Canadian dollar, given the energy sector's important role in the country's exports.

Meanwhile, the US currency is supported by resilient macroeconomic indicators. An increase in the ISM manufacturing index to 55.5 points indicates that US economic activity remains robust. Elevated inflation risks increase the likelihood of a prolonged period of relatively tight monetary conditions.

In the coming days, market participants will assess US employment figures and forthcoming Canadian labour market data. Political uncertainty in the US could also cause further fluctuations in the currency pair. The fundamental backdrop allows for a USDCAD recovery after an extended decline, although sustained gains will require technical confirmation.

On the USDCAD H4 chart, the market formed a succession of downward movements and reached support at 1.3941. Following the decline, prices are attempting to stabilise near the Price Envelope's lower boundary.

The main downward wave matrix retains its pivot near 1.4156. While prices remain below this level, the medium-term structure stays bearish. Nevertheless, the local Elliott wave configuration allows for an upward correction.

A compact consolidation range is expected to form above support at 1.3941 during the current session. Holding this level would set the stage for a recovery towards the psychological resistance level at 1.4000.

A breakout above 1.4000 would open the way towards 1.4067–1.4070, where the next significant Price Envelope boundary lies. This area is viewed as a likely target for corrective growth and a zone for a subsequent test of resistance from below.

If positive momentum persists, the next target will be 1.4191. A decline below 1.3941 would invalidate the short-term recovery scenario. Buying in anticipation of a corrective rise remains the main scenario for today.

USDCAD forecast scenario

XAUUSD forecast

Gold remains highly sensitive to US dollar movements, US government bond yields, and expectations regarding further Fed policy decisions. The resilience of the US economy and persistent inflationary pressure create conditions for an extended period of elevated interest rates, limiting the appeal of non-interest-bearing gold.

The situation in the Middle East is another factor. Escalating geopolitical tensions support safe-haven demand, but rising oil prices could also strengthen inflation expectations and push up bond yields. This combination creates a mixed fundamental picture.

In early November, gold is under pressure following an attempt to recover from local lows. At the same time, structural demand from central banks, investment funds, and physical market participants remains a potential source of support.

Today, investors are monitoring the US midterm elections, US economic data, and changing expectations for the Fed's December meeting. These developments could increase volatility in the precious metal. Despite ongoing medium-term pressure, short-term technical oversold conditions leave scope for a corrective recovery.

On the XAUUSD H4 chart, the market formed a sustained downward wave and reached the 3,871–3,906 area. Following a test of the Price Envelope's lower boundary, a local consolidation range is forming.

The downward wave matrix retains its pivot around 4,145. As long as prices remain well below this level, the main structure is bearish. However, the Elliott wave configuration suggests that the current downward momentum could end, followed by an upward correction.

Holding support at 3,871 is the first condition for the recovery scenario. Consolidation above 3,895 would set the stage for a move towards 3,957 and a subsequent test of 3,977.

A breakout above this area would open the way for a continuation of the corrective wave towards 4,045, where a key resistance level lies. The next medium-term target would be 4,140–4,145.

Conversely, a decline below 3,871 would indicate that the downward impulse remains intact and require the recovery scenario to be reassessed. For the upcoming trading session, the preference is to buy from the current support zone, anticipating a corrective rally.

XAUUSD forecast scenario

US 500 forecast

The US stock market is influenced by expectations for future Fed monetary policy, corporate earnings, and political uncertainty. Interest rates remaining within the 3.75–4.00% range and persistent inflationary pressure are increasing concerns about how long financing costs will remain elevated.

ISM manufacturing data released on 2 November confirmed an expansion in US business activity. However, positive macroeconomic figures also increase the likelihood that monetary policy will remain tight, weighing on share prices.

Technology companies' earnings reports are another factor. Investors' heightened attention to artificial intelligence spending, capital investment, and profitability prospects is limiting demand in certain segments of the stock market.

The S&P 500 fell by approximately 0.51% in the previous session, reflecting market participants' caution. Today's main political event is the US congressional midterm elections. Their outcome could influence expectations for fiscal, tax, and trade policy.

The combination of elevated bond yields, uncertain corporate forecasts, and political risks creates conditions for continued pressure on US stock indices.

On the US 500 H4 chart, the market formed a succession of lower highs after reaching its October peaks. The latest downward wave brought prices to the 7,521–7,536 area, where a short-term stabilisation attempt is under way.

The downward wave matrix identifies 7,623 as its central pivot. Holding below this level confirms sellers' advantage and maintains the likelihood of further declines.

The Elliott wave structure allows for another downward impulse after the local correction ends. A possible recovery towards 7,623 would be viewed as a test of the previously broken support level from below.

Resistance at 7,732 marks the next boundary, and a breakout above it would weaken the current bearish scenario.

Further declines are expected today, initially targeting 7,521. A breakout below this level would open the way towards 7,438, the main target of the current downward wave.

For the upcoming session, selling towards the Price Envelope's lower boundary remains preferable.

US 500 forecast scenario

BTCUSD forecast

Bitcoin remains dependent on global risk appetite, US dollar movements, and liquidity conditions in financial markets. Growing expectations that the Fed will maintain tight monetary policy are limiting the appeal of highly volatile assets.

Elevated US government bond yields and persistent inflationary pressure encourage capital flows into dollar-denominated instruments. This creates additional constraints for the cryptocurrency market as traders become more cautious about using leverage.

Changes in institutional investor sentiment are another factor. Capital flows into exchange-traded cryptocurrency funds, activity among large holders, and liquidity conditions can amplify both upward and downward price movements.

Bitcoin faced considerable pressure in late October. Reports of security problems at one of the largest cryptocurrency trading platforms further increased investor caution.

Today, market participants are focusing on the US midterm elections, US economic data, and equity index performance. If negative sentiment persists across global markets, Bitcoin could continue to decline. The fundamental picture does not yet provide a solid basis for a recovery in the medium-term uptrend.

On the BTCUSD H4 chart, the market formed a succession of downward movements after completing a corrective recovery towards 81,895. The subsequent decline brought prices to the 76,346–76,616 area.

The downward wave matrix identifies 78,873 as its central pivot. This level remains key resistance, limiting the scope for a recovery.

The Elliott wave structure suggests the downward momentum could continue after the local correction ends. The earlier rise towards 77,289 is viewed as an intermediate corrective leg within the main downtrend.

Consolidation near support at 76,346 is expected during the current session. A breakout below this level would open the way towards 75,755 and then 74,973.

An initial recovery towards 77,289 is possible, but sellers retain the upper hand as long as prices remain below 78,873.

The next significant target is 72,860, corresponding to the lower boundary of the extended bearish structure. Selling in anticipation of continued declines remains the main scenario for the upcoming trading day.

BTCUSD forecast scenario

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

The EURUSD outlook for 2026 and 2027: key levels on the daily chart, three trading scenarios and the policy gap between the Fed and the ECB that drives the pair.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

Where gold could trade in 2026: key levels, three trading scenarios with entry triggers and the forecasts from J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs.

Open Account