Weekly technical analysis and forecast (16–20 March 2026)

This weekly technical analysis highlights the key chart patterns and levels for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, gold (XAUUSD), and Brent crude oil to forecast market moves for the upcoming week (16–20 March 2026).

Major technical levels to watch this week

• EURUSD: Support: 1.1395, 1.1285. Resistance: 1.1585, 1.1695
• USDJPY: Support: 158.05, 156.50. Resistance: 159.65, 161.45
• GBPUSD: Support: 1.3235, 1.3145. Resistance: 1.3420, 1.3515
• AUDUSD: Support: 0.6945, 0.6855. Resistance: 0.7115, 0.7195
• USDCAD: Support: 1.3635, 1.3505. Resistance: 1.3705, 1.3855
• Gold: Support: 5,065, 4,865. Resistance: 5,225, 5,385
• Brent: Support: 90.30, 84.05. Resistance: 100.05, 108.55

EURUSD forecast

The EURUSD pair ended another trading week with a significant decline. Quotes moved outside the ascending channel and consolidated below its lower boundary, while sellers are attempting to retain control below the key support level at 1.1490. A sharp rise in oil prices is adding to pressure on the euro. Energy prices surged after statements from Iran’s new supreme leader about the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the key routes in global oil trade. At the same time, Tehran intensified attacks on the region’s oil and transport facilities. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are increasing the risk of energy supply disruptions and supporting a further rise in oil prices.

Higher oil prices are increasing fears of faster global inflation, while investors are also revising expectations regarding future Federal Reserve policy. Whereas the market had previously expected the first rate cut as early as June, the baseline scenario has now shifted to September. This supports the US dollar and places maximum pressure on the euro, pushing the EURUSD pair lower.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the EURUSD pair has broken out of the ascending channel, while selling pressure remains high. The weekly EURUSD forecast suggests potential for a further decline towards 1.1175 after a possible rebound from the lower boundary of the channel.

MACD confirms bearish momentum, with its histogram shrinking actively, signalling that sellers are increasing pressure. The key condition for the bearish scenario this week will be consolidation below 1.1395. A breakout below this local support level will open the door for a further decline in EURUSD towards deeper targets.

An alternative scenario will come into play if the price breaks above the 1.1625 resistance level. In this case, pressure from the bulls will increase, and quotes may return to the ascending channel, creating conditions for a further upward correction towards 1.1795.

EURUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish scenario (baseline): a rebound from the lower boundary of the long-term bullish channel will indicate stronger pressure from the bears and a continued decline with a target at 1.1395.

Bullish (alternative): a breakout above the key resistance level, with quotes consolidating above 1.1625, will signal a renewed bullish correction.

USDJPY forecast

The USDJPY rate continues to rise confidently for the fourth consecutive trading week, pushing the Japanese yen to its weakest levels since mid-2024. This trend is increasing market caution, as a sharp weakening of the national currency raises the probability of currency intervention by the Japanese authorities.

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stressed the government’s readiness to take all necessary measures in the foreign exchange market amid the surge in oil prices. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda added that a weaker yen may intensify imported inflation, which could push the regulator to accelerate policy normalisation. According to him, the impact of exchange rates on inflation is now significantly greater than before.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated: the conflict shows no signs of easing, while harsh rhetoric from Tehran and Washington indicates that the risk of military escalation with Iran remains high, which may continue to support USDJPY growth.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the daily chart, USDJPY quotes are steadily rising within an ascending channel, while buyers are attempting to consolidate above the key 159.65 resistance level. The weekly USDJPY forecast suggests potential for further upside towards 162.45 after a rebound from the lower boundary of the long-term ascending channel.

MACD confirms positive dynamics, with its histogram rising confidently, signalling stronger bullish pressure. The key condition for the main scenario this week will be consolidation above the 159.65 resistance level. This signal would open the way for further USDJPY growth as part of the current bullish momentum.

An alternative scenario will come into play if the 158.45 support level is broken. In this case, quotes will move outside the ascending channel, adding to selling pressure and creating a risk of a further decline towards the EMA-85 at 155.55.

USDJPY forecast scenarios

Bullish scenario (main): prices are rising as part of the Double Bottom reversal pattern, and a breakout above 159.65 will indicate stronger bullish momentum with a target at 162.45.

Bearish scenario (alternative): if quotes drop below 158.45, pressure from the bears may increase, signalling a bearish correction.

GBPUSD forecast

The GBPUSD rate continues to decline for the fourth consecutive trading week. Sellers have confidently held resistance at 1.3330 and are now targeting the next key support level at 1.3035. Amid external and domestic risks, market participants are revising expectations regarding UK monetary policy, including the possibility of a Bank of England rate cut in Q2.

Domestic factors continue to pressure the pound sterling, with weak economic data and political uncertainty maintaining high risks for the currency. In January, UK GDP remained unchanged, missing market expectations for 0.2% growth. The services sector showed no growth, while industrial production fell by 0.1%. Local elections due in two months may become an additional source of tension.

Despite weak economic growth, rising inflation risks suggest that the BoE is likely to keep interest rates at the current level for longer, with the possibility of further policy tightening.

GBPUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, GBPUSD quotes continue to decline within a descending channel, while sellers are actively testing the local support level at 1.3235. The weekly GBPUSD forecast outlines the possibility of continued bearish momentum with a target at 1.2955 after a rebound from the upper boundary of the channel.

The MACD indicator confirms the formation of strong bearish pressure: the histogram is falling confidently after breaking below the zero line, while sellers have prevented the formation of a bullish divergence. The key condition for the bearish scenario will be consolidation below 1.3235, which will confirm a breakout below a crucial support level and indicate the market’s readiness to continue the decline.

An alternative scenario will unfold if the price breaks above the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidates above 1.3455. In this case, a bullish correction will become more likely, with upside potential towards 1.3675.

GBPUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish scenario (main): after a minor bullish correction and a rebound from the upper boundary of the channel, the pair is expected to resume its bearish momentum with a target near 1.2955.

Bullish scenario (alternative): strong price growth with consolidation above 1.3455 will indicate increased pressure from buyers and trigger a strong bullish correction.

AUDUSD forecast

AUDUSD continues to decline as part of the bearish divergence playing out on the daily chart, although buyers are holding the key support level at 0.7005. The Australian dollar still has upside potential amid expectations of higher domestic interest rates, which partly offsets the growing global risk appetite.

The market continues to factor in the possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise the rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.1% during the current trading week to curb inflation. Rising fuel prices and concerns about living costs have increased the likelihood of a rate hike at the 17 March meeting to 78%, which will provide temporary support for the AUDUSD pair. Further rate increases are fully priced in for August, with market participants expecting total monetary tightening of about 60 basis points over the year.

AUDUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, AUDUSD quotes have reached a new local high, but the emerging bearish MACD divergence suggests the price could edge lower this week with a target at 0.6775.

MACD confirms a downward momentum: the histogram continues to fall confidently, indicating stronger selling pressure. The key condition for the bearish scenario will be consolidation below 0.6925. This signal will confirm a breakout below the lower boundary of the long-term bullish channel and open the door to a deeper decline.

An alternative scenario will come into play if the price breaks above the 0.7205 resistance level. In this case, buying pressure will increase, creating conditions for further growth towards 0.7375.

AUDUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish scenario (baseline): a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel at 0.7105 will indicate a strengthening bearish momentum with a target at 0.6775.

Bullish scenario (alternative): a breakout above the resistance level, with quotes consolidating above 0.7205, will signal renewed growth.

USDCAD forecast

The USDCAD pair ended the trading week in a narrow range, which has persisted for more than six weeks. The range’s upper boundary lies near 1.3705, while the lower boundary is located at 1.3585. Buyers become more active near the lower boundary, while sellers step in near the upper one, and quotes have yet to break out of the range.

The Canadian dollar remains under pressure, as demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset outweighs support from rising energy prices. Domestic economic data was mixed, with the unemployment rate up to 6.8% in February.

Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep the interest rate at the current level at its 18 March meeting to contain inflation at 2.4%. However, despite the regulator’s actions, the Canadian dollar remains vulnerable to the global trend towards safe-haven demand.

USDCAD technical analysis

On the daily chart, USDCAD quotes continue to move within a bullish correction and a Triangle pattern. The price remains below the EMA-85, indicating that selling pressure persists. The weekly USDCAD forecast suggests the decline could resume with a target near 1.3415 after a rebound from the upper boundary of the pattern.

The MACD indicator reflects the correction phase: the histogram is rising and approaching the zero mark, signalling a temporary weakening of bearish pressure. The key condition for the bearish scenario will be consolidation below 1.3485, which will confirm a breakout below the lower boundary of the Triangle pattern and open the way for a further decline.

An alternative scenario will unfold if the 1.3785 resistance level is broken. In this case, the price will move outside the pattern and the descending channel, creating conditions for the bullish correction to continue and for quotes to rise further.

USDCAD forecast scenarios

Bearish scenario (main): after rebounding from the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern, the price is expected to regain bearish momentum with a target at 1.3415.

Bullish scenario (alternative): if the price surges and breaks above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern and consolidates above 1.3785, the bullish correction is expected to develop.

XAUUSD forecast

Gold continues to decline for the second consecutive trading week, although buyers are holding the key support level at 5,205 USD, preventing prices from breaking below this level. Rising oil prices add to pressure on the market, intensifying inflation expectations in global markets and prompting participants to revise the outlook for monetary easing by the leading central banks, thereby reducing the probability of earlier rate cuts.

The strengthening US dollar is also exacerbating the situation for gold. Rising inflation risks are reducing the likelihood of aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve, with the market currently pricing in only one rate cut closer to the end of the year. According to the latest data, the Consumer Price Index rose by 2.4% year-on-year in February, unchanged from January and in line with the average analyst forecast. At the same time, inflation remains at its lowest pace since May last year.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, XAUUSD quotes continue to decline, although they remain within the long-term ascending channel. At the same time, there is still potential for a Double Bottom reversal pattern to form, as prices have already tested the 5,045 USD support level twice. The weekly XAUUSD forecast suggests a rebound from the lower boundary of the reversal pattern, followed by growth towards 5,545 USD.

The MACD indicator points to a correction phase: the histogram continues to decline, signalling the probability of further pressure before a new bullish impulse forms. The key condition for the bullish scenario will be consolidation above 5,235 USD. This signal will confirm a breakout above the upper boundary of the Double Bottom pattern and indicate that the market is poised for continued growth.

An alternative scenario will come into play if the lower boundary of the channel is broken and prices consolidate below 4,945 USD. In this case, quotes will break out of the long-term ascending channel, increasing the risk of a deeper correction.

XAUUSD forecast scenarios

Bullish scenario (main): the potential for continued growth will form after a rebound from the lower boundary of the Double Bottom reversal pattern and consolidation above 5,235 USD.

Bearish (alternative): a breakout below the lower boundary of the reversal pattern, with prices consolidating below 4,945 USD, will open the potential for downward movement.

Brent forecast

Brent prices are declining while remaining below the psychological mark of 100 USD per barrel. Market participants continue to closely monitor the developments in the conflict around Iran, as there are still no signs of de-escalation. At the same time, traders are assessing the effectiveness of measures aimed at curbing rising energy prices.

Washington reported a temporary authorisation to purchase Russian oil already at sea to limit further price growth in the market. At the same time, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the international coalition to consider escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as this becomes militarily feasible.

An additional factor was the International Energy Agency’s decision to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. Military strikes in the Middle East continue to disrupt oil production, while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, which supports high volatility and preserves the risk of further energy supply disruptions.

Brent technical analysis

On the daily chart, Brent prices continue to rise after rebounding from the support level and the lower boundary of the ascending channel. Buying pressure remains high, while prices have moved significantly above the EMA-85, indicating continued strong bullish momentum. According to the weekly Brent forecast, the market is expected to continue its upward trajectory towards 115.00 USD.

MACD confirms aggressive bullish momentum, with its histogram rising confidently, signalling stronger buying pressure. An additional factor in favour of continued growth is the absence of bearish divergence on the MACD. The key condition for the bullish scenario this week will be price consolidation above the psychological mark of 100.00 USD.

The bullish scenario will be invalidated if prices break below the support level and consolidate below 84.05 USD. Such a signal will indicate a breakout out of the ascending channel and may trigger a deeper correction.

Brent forecast scenarios

Bullish scenario (main): if the market rebounds from the lower boundary of the bullish channel at 90.05 USD, the potential remains for continued growth with a target at 115.05 USD.

Bearish scenario (alternative): if the lower boundary of the bullish channel is broken and prices consolidate below 84.05, the market is expected to develop a bearish correction.

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