Weekly technical analysis and forecast (7–11 September 2026)

In this weekly technical analysis, we examine the key chart patterns and price levels for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, Gold (XAUUSD), US 500, and Bitcoin (BTCUSD) to forecast market developments for the week ahead (7–11 September 2026).

Major technical levels to watch this week

• EURUSD: Support: 1.1525, 1.1323. Resistance: 1.1617, 1.1710
• USDJPY: Support: 155.19, 149.98. Resistance: 158.20, 159.61
• GBPUSD: Support: 1.3117, 1.2947. Resistance: 1.3415, 1.3510
• AUDUSD: Support: 0.7165, 0.7063. Resistance: 0.7217, 0.7468
• USDCAD: Support: 1.3744, 1.3628. Resistance: 1.3840, 1.3935
• Gold: Support: 4,336, 4,215. Resistance: 4,719, 4,762
• US 500: Support: 7,704, 7,613. Resistance: 7,921, 8,004
• BTCUSD: Support: 79,206, 76,817. Resistance: 81,268, 86,051

EURUSD forecast

EURUSD starts the new week near 1.1596, maintaining a balance between the euro’s local resilience and a stronger medium-term fundamental backdrop for the US dollar. The main market driver remains expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Recent data and comments from the regulator show that the US economy continues to grow, although employment growth is becoming less confident. At the same time, inflationary pressure remains above a level comfortable for the Fed, while higher energy costs increase the risk of renewed price acceleration.

The market will assess whether the cooling in employment is sufficient for the Fed to refrain from tightening monetary policy in September. Weak employment data or slower inflation could lead to lower US Treasury yields and short-term US dollar weakness. However, strong US economic readings, higher consumer prices, or more hawkish signals from Fed officials could restore demand for the US dollar as a higher-yielding currency.

For the euro, an important event will be the European Central Bank meeting scheduled for 10 September. The eurozone economy remains vulnerable to high energy prices, while limited domestic activity restrains the potential for sustained strengthening of the single currency. The ECB will have to take into account both inflation risks and the threat of weaker economic growth. If the regulator confirms a cautious stance or lowers its assessment of the economic outlook, this could become an additional factor weighing on EURUSD.

On Thursday, investors will also focus on the US Producer Price Index, followed on Friday by the August US Consumer Price Index. Accelerating inflation would reinforce expectations of a more hawkish Fed stance and increase the probability of a decline in EURUSD. Conversely, notably weaker inflation data could trigger the closing of long US dollar positions and cause a corrective rise in the pair. Elevated volatility is likely around these releases and after the ECB press conference.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the daily EURUSD chart, the pair completed an upward impulse from the 1.1340–1.1400 area and formed a high near 1.1710. After testing this resistance, the pair reversed lower, indicating the presence of large sellers in the upper part of the range. The current price is between local support at 1.1525 and the nearest resistance at 1.1617, forming a neutral short-term structure within a broader downward scenario.

The wave count points to the completion of the corrective upward phase and the probability of a new downward wave developing. A local recovery towards 1.1617 would not invalidate the bearish scenario while the price remains below 1.1710. This zone coincides with the previous high, the upper boundary of the assumed channel, and the area from which a notable decline previously began.

Consolidation below 1.1525 would provide technical confirmation of stronger selling pressure. In that case, the nearest target could be the 1.1410 area, while further downward momentum would give the market room to test the main support at 1.1323. A breakout and daily consolidation above 1.1710 would invalidate the selling scenario and increase the probability of continued growth towards higher targets.

EURUSD forecast scenarios

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.1596
• Entry price: 1.1617
• Stop loss: 1.1712
• Take profit: 1.1410
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2.2

USDJPY forecast

USDJPY enters the new week under the influence of simultaneous revisions to rate expectations in the US and Japan. The US dollar received support from the resilience of the US labour market: initial jobless claims came in at 206,000, while layoffs remain rare. However, the private sector added only 38,000 jobs in August, preserving the risk of a weaker official US labour-market report.

The Federal Reserve remains in wait-and-see mode ahead of the release of August inflation data. Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that the September rate decision will largely depend on the Consumer Price Index. Accelerating inflation could revive expectations of policy tightening and support US Treasury yields together with the US dollar. Weaker data, by contrast, would reinforce doubts about the need for a rate hike and create conditions for USDJPY to decline.

Fresh signals from the Bank of Japan have become an important factor for the yen. Board member Hajime Takata called for flexible continuation of rate increases if domestic financial conditions and inflation allow. Tokyo’s core Consumer Price Index accelerated to 1.8000% year-on-year in August, moving closer to the target level. This strengthens the case for further BoJ policy normalisation after the rate was raised to 1.0000%.

At the start of the week, attention will focus on Japan’s final second-quarter GDP estimate, earnings data, and producer inflation. Monday in the US will see reduced liquidity due to the holiday, while the main events will be the Producer Price Index on 10 September and the Consumer Price Index on 11 September. A combination of weak US inflation and resilient Japanese data would favour a stronger yen. The opposite scenario could temporarily restore demand for the US dollar, but would be limited by BoJ expectations.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the daily USDJPY chart, the second upward wave ended near 160.35 and a strong downward impulse formed towards the 155.63 area. The wave count suggests the development of a third downward wave. The key pivot point is 155.19: consolidation below this level would confirm a breakout from the current support zone and open the way towards the local calculated target at 149.98.

After reaching 149.98, a corrective fourth wave is likely, with a return towards 155.19 and a retest of the level from below. Such a rebound would not invalidate the main downward scenario while the price remains below 158.20. Once the correction is complete, a fifth wave is expected to develop with the main target in the 146.44 area. A return above 158.20 would postpone an immediate decline, while consolidation above 159.61 would require a revision of the bearish structure.

USDJPY forecast scenarios

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 155.63
• Entry price: 155.60
• Stop loss: 158.20
• Take profit: 149.98
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

GBPUSD forecast

The fundamental backdrop for GBPUSD in the week ahead remains tense and is largely determined by a combination of monetary policy at the major central banks and geopolitical factors. The key event for the market will be the so-called ‘central-bank week’, when the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will make interest-rate decisions almost simultaneously. These events traditionally create elevated volatility in the currency market and shape investors’ main medium-term expectations.

Geopolitical developments in the Middle East remain another source of instability. Rising tensions in the region have pushed energy prices higher and increased demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. Against the backdrop of swings in oil prices, investors have again become more active buyers of the US currency, putting pressure on sterling.

UK economic data also remain mixed. Economic growth remains weak, with GDP showing virtually no momentum, while unemployment is gradually rising. At the same time, inflation remains above the Bank of England’s target, complicating monetary policy decisions. As a result, uncertainty persists over the timing of a possible reduction in interest rates.

Higher inflationary pressure caused by expensive energy could become another risk factor. Economists warn that if the conflict in the Middle East escalates further, UK inflation could accelerate again, potentially delaying the Bank of England’s easing cycle.

The US dollar continues to be supported by a strong labour market and persistent inflation readings. The latest US inflation data confirm that the Federal Reserve remains cautious about cutting rates, supporting demand for the US currency.

GBPUSD technical analysis

On the daily GBPUSD chart, the market completed an upward wave structure with a high around 1.38649. After reaching this level, a downward-wave phase began and gradually developed into a downward impulse.

The first key downside target was reached around 1.3510, where an intermediate consolidation zone formed. However, the market failed to hold below this level and corrected towards 1.3710. Selling pressure then increased. As a result, the price continued the initial decline towards the next significant level at 1.3415, which acts as a local pivot point within the current structure.

The current dynamics indicate the formation of a downward wave within a broader structure. From a technical perspective, the market continues to move towards the key support at 1.3117. This level is the local target of the current impulse.

A breakout below this level could accelerate the decline. The next medium-term target would be 1.2946, where the previous reversal-impulse zone and a potential area for a new market base are located.

The indicator structure also points to continued pressure from sellers. After reversing from the January highs, the market has gradually formed a sequence of lower lows, confirming the development of the first phase after the previous upward trend.

At the same time, short-term corrective rebounds are possible. If the price returns above 1.3356, the market could test the 1.3415 area, where the nearest significant resistance and a potential zone for renewed selling are located.

Therefore, the overall technical structure points to a developing downward trend with the possibility of testing deeper support levels in the coming weeks.

GBPUSD forecast scenarios

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.3585
• Entry price: 1.3585
• Stop loss: 1.3675
• Take profit: 1.3456
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.43

AUDUSD forecast

The Australian dollar is ending the week near local highs against the US dollar, although the fundamental backdrop remains mixed. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key rate at 4.3500% in August after three increases since the start of the year. The regulator stresses that inflation remains too high and that further decisions will depend on incoming data. July inflation slowed to 3.5000% year-on-year, but the core reading held at 3.6000%, so expectations of near-term RBA policy easing remain limited.

The Australian economy grew by 0.4000% in the June quarter, but the terms of trade deteriorated and unemployment reached 4.5000%. This limits the potential for sustained strengthening of the Australian currency. China remains another risk factor: the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8000 in August but remained below the neutral level. For the AUD, this means that commodity demand and Australia’s export outlook remain sensitive to new data from China.

For the US dollar, the main reference point remains the market’s reaction to the August employment report after weak July data. The Federal Reserve continues to make its decisions dependent on inflation and the labour market. In the week ahead, attention will shift to the US Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index. Accelerating inflation could support US Treasury yields and the US dollar, while weak readings would boost demand for risk-sensitive currencies, including the AUD.

AUDUSD technical analysis

AUDUSD remains within an upward channel, extending its recovery from around 0.6890. The price has approached the 0.7217 resistance area and formed a consolidation below this level. While the market remains below 0.7217, the probability of a corrective decline towards 0.7165 remains. A breakout below this support followed by consolidation would open the way towards the main corrective target at 0.7063, where an important pivot point and the lower boundary of the local upward structure are located.

The downside scenario does not invalidate the medium-term bullish picture. If sellers fail to consolidate below 0.7165 and the price returns above 0.7217, the pair would receive a signal for further growth. In this case, the nearest target would be 0.7468. A breakout above this level would confirm the development of the next upward wave with the prospect of a move towards 0.7680. A cautious approach is preferable this week: selling is relevant only after a confirmed breakout below 0.7165, as the price remaining within the channel supports the probability of another test of the upper boundary.

AUDUSD forecast scenarios

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 0.7201
• Entry price: 0.7165
• Stop loss: 0.7217
• Take profit: 0.7063
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.9615

USDCAD forecast

USDCAD is ending the week near 1.3792, with its dynamics determined by the balance between rate expectations in the US and Canada, energy prices, and the risk of another round of trade tensions. The key event was the Bank of Canada’s pause: the regulator kept the rate at 2.2500%. At the same time, the BoC noted an acceleration in the Canadian economy in the second quarter, resilient consumer demand, and an improving labour market. However, external tariff risks and excess supply in the economy continue to limit confidence in a further recovery.

Inflation in Canada is holding near 3.0000%, primarily due to expensive petrol and high petroleum-product prices. Core measures remain closer to target, but a prolonged increase in energy costs could spread to a broad range of goods and services. This combination keeps the BoC cautious: immediate policy tightening is not the base case, but a rate cut also appears unlikely. This is a moderately positive factor for the Canadian dollar, especially if oil prices remain high.

For the US dollar, the main reference point remains the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for 15–16 September. Early labour-market signals remain mixed: private employment grew only weakly, while July payroll data showed a decline. This restrains expectations of a rapid Fed rate hike. At the same time, inflation risks have not disappeared, and the US Consumer Price Index release on 11 September could sharply change the market’s assessment of the Fed outlook.

Oil provides additional support for the Canadian currency. The conflict in the Middle East, logistical disruptions, and higher refining margins support Canada’s energy sector. Risks for the CAD are linked to new US tariffs against Canada: an expansion of these measures would worsen the outlook for exports and investment. Liquidity may be reduced at the start of the week due to the US holiday, so a more pronounced move is likely after US market participants return.

USDCAD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the pair completed an upward impulsive structure from 1.3497 to the 1.4248 area, where the peak of the third wave formed. The market then moved into a corrective fourth wave. The decline from the June high has already taken the price to 1.3744, after which a local rebound to 1.3840 formed. This rise still appears corrective and is developing within a downward channel.

The nearest resistance at 1.3840 is the pivot point. Holding below it would preserve the potential for another test of 1.3744. Consolidation below this support would open the way towards 1.3628, where the main target of the fourth wave and the lower boundary of the extended range are located. This scenario is consistent with both the current wave structure and the direction of the local downward channel.

The alternative scenario assumes a decisive breakout above 1.3935. In this case, the correction may have ended earlier, giving buyers room for a recovery towards 1.4248 and further development of the fifth wave towards 1.4308. While the price remains below 1.3935, the scenario of a continued correction retains the advantage.

USDCAD forecast scenarios

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 1.3792
• Entry price: 1.3838
• Stop loss: 1.3940
• Take profit: 1.3630
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

XAUUSD forecast

Gold is ending the week in an environment shaped by two opposing factors: demand for safe-haven assets and the risk of tighter US monetary policy. After weak summer labour-market dynamics, investors are paying particularly close attention to the latest August employment report and its implications ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on 15–16 September. Slower hiring could reduce Treasury yields and pressure on the US dollar, which traditionally supports XAUUSD. Conversely, a resilient labour market and accelerating wages would restore demand for the US dollar and increase the risk of a correction in the metal.

The main catalyst of the week will be US inflation data. The Producer Price Index will be released on Thursday, followed by the August Consumer Price Index on Friday. The recent rise in energy prices due to escalation around the Strait of Hormuz increases the probability of strong inflation readings. Such an outcome would strengthen the case for the Fed to maintain a hawkish tone and limit gold’s upside potential. Softer data, by contrast, would weaken real yields and give buyers a reason to resume growth.

Monday will be less liquid due to the US holiday, so early-week moves may be technical and unstable. Releases in the second half of the week will set the main direction. Rising inflation expectations support gold as a hedge against currency depreciation, but also push bond yields higher. For XAUUSD, the decisive factor will be which of these forces proves stronger.

The geopolitical premium remains significant: shipping disruptions and new strikes in the Middle East continue to support safe-haven demand. Persistent official-sector demand for gold provides additional medium-term support. Therefore, even if the US dollar strengthens during the week, deeper declines could attract strategic buyers. The base case assumes elevated volatility around the inflation releases, with gold retaining an advantage if the data do not confirm a renewed acceleration in prices.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the downward five-wave structure from the January high to the 3,945 low, marked as wave 5, has been completed. From this base, the market formed an upward impulse within the blue channel. The first recovery wave took the price into the 4,670–4,719 area, after which a correction began. The latest price on the chart is 4,473; the nearest 4,458 area serves as intermediate support but does not yet confirm that the corrective phase is complete.

The key pivot point is 4,336. Holding above it preserves the scenario of the local correction ending and another move towards 4,719. Reaching this target would confirm the development of wave 1 of a broader upward cycle. A breakout above 4,719 would open the main target at 4,762, where the upper boundary of the long-term downward trend line lies and selling pressure is expected to increase.

Profit-taking and the formation of wave 2 with a return towards 4,336 are likely around 4,762. While the price remains below 4,719, it is preferable to look for a buy on a corrective decline rather than enter after an impulsive rise. This would allow for a tighter protective stop and improve the potential risk-to-reward ratio.

If sellers secure a daily close below 4,336, the bullish wave count will be postponed, with 4,215 becoming the first downside target. A move below this level would increase the risk of a return towards 3,945 and invalidate the buy-on-correction scenario.

XAUUSD forecast scenarios

Trading scenario: Out of the market

• Price at the time of writing: 4,473
• Entry price: -
• Stop loss: -
• Take profit: -
• Risk-to-reward ratio: -

US 500 forecast

At the start of the new week, market participants will focus on the balance between the resilience of the US economy and inflation risks. The August US labour-market report came in stronger than expected: non-farm payrolls rose by 162,000, while unemployment remained at 4.1000%. The release reduced concerns about a sharp economic slowdown and supported demand for US equities. At the same time, a strong labour market could keep inflationary pressure elevated, limiting the scope for rapid monetary policy easing.

The Federal Reserve will hold its next meeting on 15–16 September. Following the employment data, market expectations will be particularly sensitive to inflation figures. The August Producer Price Index will be released on Thursday, followed by the Consumer Price Index on Friday. Accelerating price pressures would increase the likelihood of a more hawkish Fed stance and could trigger profit-taking in US 500. Conversely, moderate inflation readings would support expectations of unchanged rates and interest in growth stocks.

US Treasury yield dynamics, the US dollar, and the response of the technology sector will also be important for the index. Lower yields create a favourable backdrop for highly valued companies and support broad market liquidity. However, after the strong recovery, the risk of a short-term correction remains. US markets will be closed on Monday for Labor Day, so the main liquidity will return on Tuesday. The key risk for the week will be a rise in inflation expectations following the 10–11 September data releases.

US 500 technical analysis

On the daily chart, US 500 retains an upward structure. After completing a correction near 7,613, the market formed a strong upward impulse and reached the 7,756 area. The price remains above the nearest support at 7,704, confirming that the bullish scenario remains valid. The local correction from the highs was bought, while the latest upward wave returned the index to the upper part of the range.

The buyers’ nearest objective remains consolidation above 7,756 and a new local high. If this move develops, growth potential will open towards the main target at 7,921. This level is the upper boundary of the current forecast channel and a key resistance. A compact consolidation between 7,704 and 7,756 would not invalidate the positive structure as long as sellers fail to consolidate below the lower boundary of the range. A breakout below 7,704 would increase the probability of a deeper correction towards 7,613.

US 500 forecast scenarios

Trading scenario: BUY

Price at the time of writing: 7,756

Entry price: 7,758

Stop loss: 7,704

Take profit: 7,921

Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3

BTCUSD forecast

Bitcoin’s fundamental backdrop has improved after quotes returned above 80,000. The main driver was a decline in concerns about further tightening of US monetary policy. Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller indicated that the rate could remain unchanged if inflation continues to slow. This weakened the US dollar and Treasury yields, supporting demand for risk and scarce assets.

Institutional flows provided another positive factor. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted around 730.9000 million USD in the latest session, marking the largest daily inflow since January. A significant share of the funds went into IBIT, suggesting that demand is not purely speculative but is also linked to renewed interest in Bitcoin among large investors.

The main macroeconomic risks in the week ahead will be US inflation data. The Producer Price Index will be released on 10 September, followed by the Consumer Price Index on 11 September. Weak readings could reinforce expectations of a softer Fed stance ahead of the 15–16 September meeting and support BTCUSD. Conversely, accelerating inflation would revive rate-hike expectations, strengthen the US dollar, and could trigger profit-taking in cryptocurrencies. The positive effect of ETF inflows remains in place, but the market is still sensitive to economic data and bond-yield dynamics.

BTCUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the market completed a correction into the 76,287 area, found support, and formed a new upward wave. After a strong impulse, quotes approached the 81,268 area, which remains the nearest level confirming further growth. The current price is slightly below this mark, so a compact consolidation around 81,268 is likely in the coming sessions.

Consolidation above resistance would open the potential for the upward wave to continue towards the main target at 86,051. The ongoing upward channel and the price holding above 79,206 support this scenario. A move below this support would signal a deeper correction with the risk of a test of 76,817, although for now it would not invalidate the medium-term upward structure.

Forecast scenario for the week: consolidation above 81,268 followed by a move towards 86,051. The alternative scenario assumes a correction towards 79,206 before growth resumes.

BTCUSD forecast scenarios

Trading scenario: SELL

• Price at the time of writing: 81,184
• Entry price: 81,268
• Stop loss: 79,206
• Take profit: 86,051
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2.3200

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