EURUSD weekly forecast: market sentiment shifts back towards the US dollar
What moves EURUSD next week
EURUSD starts the new week around 1.1490 after a sharp decline and is testing an important support area. The dollar strengthened markedly following the Fed's first interest rate rise in three years, but EURUSD is now approaching oversold territory.
This week, the market will assess how long the US central bank is prepared to continue tightening monetary policy.
- Price at the time of writing
- 4312 USD
- Bias for the week
- BearishH4
- Weekly range
- 4290 and 4255
- Trigger level
- 4364 and 4418
- Forecast invalid above
- 4425
- Main event
- Fed rate decision, 92% probability of a 25-basis-point rise
Updated 15 September 2026, 09:30 (UTC+3)
What moves EURUSD next week
- Market focus: the main driver for EURUSD will be a reassessment of the Fed's future interest rate path following its September meeting. The FOMC unanimously raised the target rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, and Fed officials indicated that further tightening could follow later this year. What matters most for the foreign exchange market is whether expectations of another rate increase persist. If investors continue to price in a higher terminal rate, yields and the dollar may remain elevated. Conversely, a weakening of these expectations would give EURUSD room to recover from its sharp weekly decline.
- Current trend: on the daily chart, EURUSD has fallen sharply from the 1.1600 area and approached the lower Bollinger Band. The price is also testing an ascending trendline running roughly through 1.1450–1.1470. MACD has moved into negative territory and continues to decline, confirming growing selling pressure. The stochastic oscillator has fallen below 20 into oversold territory. This increases the likelihood of a short-term rebound but does not yet reverse the established downward momentum.
- Weekly forecast: the base case assumes continued pressure on EURUSD while the pair remains below the 1.1545–1.1600 area. At the start of the week, the market may attempt to stabilise near the rising trendline support, but a break below it would signal a continuation of the decline. A sustained move below 1.1450 would open the way towards 1.1368. To improve the near-term technical picture significantly, buyers need to push the pair back above at least 1.1545.
Week calendar
| Day | Event | Why it matters for EURUSD |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday and Wednesday, 22–23 September | Federal Reserve | The meeting takes place, with the interest rate decision due on Wednesday; the probability of a 25-basis-point increase is estimated at around 71%. |
| Friday, 25 September | Bank of Japan | An interest rate increase is expected; rising global interest rates create an unfavourable environment for precious metals. |
EURUSD technical analysis
On the daily chart, EURUSD has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band and quickly moved towards the indicator's lower band. At the same time, the pair has approached an ascending support line formed from the July lows. This area is now crucial to preserving the recovery structure established over the past two months.
The nearest support lies around 1.1450. A break below this level would increase the likelihood of a return to the July area around 1.1368. Below that, the next reference level is around 1.1300. Resistance stands at 1.1545, followed by 1.1604 and 1.1663.
MACD has already moved below zero and continues to deteriorate, confirming the development of downward momentum. The stochastic oscillator is around 12–11, deep in oversold territory. This creates conditions for a technical rebound, but while the price remains below 1.1545, any rise is more likely to be a correction within the current decline.
The technical advantage remains with sellers, although a confirmed break below 1.1450 is needed before opening new short positions.
EURUSD trading scenario for next week
A rebound from 4235 and a reversal in the stochastic oscillator create the conditions for a recovery, although the price remains below significant resistance. A buy trade therefore becomes relevant only after a confirmed breakout above 4367.
A sustained move above 4367 would confirm stronger demand following the successful defence of support and create conditions for a continued recovery.
EURUSD trading scenario
EURUSD
Buy StopWhat would change the forecast
- A more dovish Fed decision than the market expects: leaving rates unchanged or using cautious language about the next steps. Yields would fall, and demand for gold would quickly return.
- A move back above 4364. This would open the way towards 4418 and invalidate the day's bearish scenario.
- A renewed escalation in geopolitical tensions, which typically brings buyers back to gold as a safe-haven asset.
EURUSD forecast next week: questions and answers
Will the euro go up or down next week?
The outlook for {week_range} is bearish whilst XAUUSD remains below 4425. A confirmed break below 4300 opens the way to 4168. Oversold conditions suggest a short-term rebound, whilst a more cautious signal from the Fed could trigger a recovery following three weeks of decline. The 4300 level remains the key benchmark for the week.
What are the key EURUSD levels for {week_range}?
Support is found at 4300, then 4168 and 4040, where the upward trend line from the July lows lies. Resistance: 4425 and 4450, then 4554 and 4683. The 4,300 level will determine the direction for the week, whilst a return above 4,425 would invalidate the bearish outlook.
What moves the euro next week?
The Fed’s decision on Wednesday 16 September. Following the acceleration in producer price inflation, the market estimates the probability of a 25 basis point rate rise at approximately 71 per cent. Rising US bond yields and high oil prices, against the backdrop of the conflict with Iran, are increasing pressure on the metal. The Bank of Japan’s meeting on Friday provides a further context.
Summary
EURUSD begins the new week near a key technical support level following a sharp strengthening of the US dollar and the Fed's first interest rate rise in three years. Oversold conditions create scope for a local rebound, but downward momentum remains intact.
The EURUSD forecast for the week of 21–25 September suggests a further decline if the pair breaks below 1.1450, with the nearest target around 1.1368.
Editors’ picks
EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions
The EURUSD outlook for 2026 and 2027: key levels on the daily chart, three trading scenarios and the policy gap between the Fed and the ECB that drives the pair.
Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: technical analysis, price levels & predictions
Where gold could trade in 2026: key levels, three trading scenarios with entry triggers and the forecasts from J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs.
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.