US inflation could deal another blow to XAGUSD: markets pause ahead of the CPI release

Silver is still attempting to gain ground as investors await US inflation data, with prices currently hovering at 52.80 USD. For more details, see our analysis for 10 November 2026.

XAGUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US inflation could rise to 3.9%
• Core inflation could accelerate to 2.8%, from 2.6% a month earlier
• Global silver ETFs recorded inflows of around 218 tonnes
• XAGUSD forecast for 10 November 2026: 55.55 and 46.85

Fundamental analysis

The XAGUSD price forecast for today, 10 November 2026, shows silver trading near 52.80 USD per ounce. Following its recent recovery, the market has shifted into wait-and-see mode ahead of US inflation data. Prices are being influenced simultaneously by dollar weakness, the Federal Reserve policy outlook, and uncertainty surrounding industrial demand.

Today, investors are focused on October's US CPI release. Annual inflation is forecast to accelerate to 3.9%, up from the previous reading of 3.7%, while core inflation could rise to 2.8% from 2.6% a month earlier. Higher readings could fuel expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December and put pressure on silver, a non-interest-bearing asset.

Hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the conflict between the US and Iran have contributed to lower oil prices and a weaker dollar, improving conditions for a recovery in precious metals. During trading on 9 November, silver gained around 2.6%, outperforming gold.

Silver is in demand in solar energy, electronics, and artificial intelligence infrastructure. However, a potential slowdown in investment in data centres and technology poses risks to future consumption of the metal. Rebuilding silver inventories on Chinese exchanges is adding further pressure.

According to data published on 6 November, global silver ETFs have recorded inflows of around 218 tonnes since 30 October. This indicates renewed investor interest following October's decline. However, total ETF holdings remained approximately 6.1% lower since the beginning of the year, so it is still too early to speak of a full recovery in investment demand.

The XAGUSD forecast for 10 November 2026 takes into account that the fundamental picture for silver remains mixed. Dollar weakness, falling oil prices, and renewed ETF inflows are supporting silver. However, the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike and uncertainty over industrial demand are limiting the recovery. The main short-term catalyst will be the US CPI release.

Technical outlook

On the D1 chart, XAGUSD prices have formed a Harami reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and could extend their corrective wave as the pattern's signal plays out. Since XAGUSD remains within a descending channel, the target for the pullback is the 55.55 USD resistance level.

However, today's XAGUSD technical analysis also envisages an alternative scenario in which prices could drop towards 46.85 USD and continue their downward trajectory without testing the resistance level.

XAGUSD overview

• Asset: XAGUSD
• Timeframe: D1 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance level: 55.55
• Key support levels: 49.10 and 46.85

XAGUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout below the support level, followed by consolidation below 49.10, would confirm the continuation of the downtrend and set the stage for opening short positions.

Risk factors

The main risk factors for XAGUSD remain further Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening, a stronger US dollar, and rising US Treasury yields. A slowdown in global industry, particularly in China, and reduced silver consumption in solar energy due to technological optimisation could put additional pressure on the metal.

Summary

US inflation expectations are preventing silver from strengthening and reversing the existing trend. XAGUSD technical analysis suggests a correction towards 55.55 before the downtrend resumes.

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