XAUUSD edges lower despite demand from global central banks

XAUUSD quotes could hit a new all-time low set this summer, currently trading at 4,126 USD. For more details, see our analysis for 8 October 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Demand for gold from central banks worldwide remains strong
• US government bond yields continue to rise
• XAUUSD forecast for 8 October 2026: 3,995

Fundamental analysis

The main negative factor for gold at present is the sharp rise in US government bond yields. Long-term US Treasury yields have climbed to their highest levels in roughly two decades. Higher bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not generate interest income, so rising yields are putting pressure on XAUUSD.

Central banks worldwide continued to increase their gold reserves in August, with net purchases totalling 39 tonnes. The largest and most consistent gold buyers in 2026 remained active during the month. China led purchases by volume, followed by Uzbekistan and Poland.

At the same time, inflation risks remain elevated. High oil prices and persistent tensions in the Middle East could sustain inflationary pressures and force the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive policy for longer. Paradoxically, this factor could be negative for gold in the short term: despite its safe-haven status, rising inflation expectations are currently also driving Treasury yields higher.

Technical outlook

On the D1 timeframe, XAUUSD has established a support level at 4,110 USD and a resistance level at 4,315 USD. The broader trend remains bearish, with prices under selling pressure. On the H4 chart, support is located at 4,065 USD, while resistance stands at 4,180 USD. If the trend continues, the downside target is 3,970 USD.

An alternative scenario would come into play if prices break above the 4,180 USD resistance level and consolidate above this mark. In this case, a rise towards 4,315 USD can be expected.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,180 and 4,315
• Key support levels: 4,110 and 4,065

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the sideways range, followed by consolidation below 4,110 USD, would signal increased selling pressure and continued bearish momentum towards 3,970 USD.

• Current price: 4,126
• Entry level: 4,060
• Take profit: 3,970
• Stop loss: 4,090
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 9 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risks for XAUUSD remain a further rise in US government bond yields and a stronger US dollar. Persistently hawkish Fed rhetoric and growing expectations of another rate hike could add to the pressure. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions, weaker US macroeconomic data and increased demand from central banks could support gold and limit its decline.

Summary

The fundamental backdrop for XAUUSD remains mixed. A strong dollar, high US Treasury yields and the Fed’s restrictive policy are weighing on gold, while geopolitical risks and sustained demand from central banks continue to support prices. A breakout below 4,110 USD, followed by consolidation beneath this level, would be key to a continuation of the downtrend.

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