XAUUSD awaits the Fed's decision, but US inflation could spring a surprise

Gold is attempting to regain ground ahead of US inflation data, with prices currently at 4,185 USD. For more details, see our analysis for 12 October 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Markets are awaiting US inflation data
• The week's key event is the release of the US Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, 14 October
• XAUUSD forecast for 12 October 2026: 4,290

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 12 October 2026, shows that the USD continues to lose ground amid geopolitical tensions.

Markets are awaiting US inflation data and the Federal Reserve's response once the actual figures are released.

On Monday, spot gold gained around 0.1%, reaching 4,198 USD per ounce. A weaker US currency makes the precious metal more affordable for buyers outside the US.

Donald Trump’s statement triggered a decline in oil prices. If energy costs continue to fall, pressure on inflation and bond yields could ease, which would benefit gold. Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East remains unstable.

The week's key event will be the release of the Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, 14 October. The figures will help investors assess the Federal Reserve's future actions. Higher inflation could fuel expectations of interest rate hikes and weigh on gold, which does not generate interest income.

According to market estimates, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in October has fallen and currently stands at around 17.0%, while the December figure is around 86.0%. Maintaining tight monetary policy could limit further gains in XAUUSD, despite demand for safe-haven assets.

A weaker dollar, falling oil prices, and record inflows into gold ETFs are supporting prices. However, high US bond yields and upcoming US inflation data could limit gains if the figures reinforce expectations of further Fed tightening.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and could continue their upward wave as the pattern's signal plays out. Since XAUUSD has broken out of the descending channel, the target for the pullback will be the 4,290 USD resistance level.

However, today's XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests another scenario in which prices fall to 4,152 USD and continue their downward momentum without testing the resistance level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: range
• Key resistance levels: 4,215 and 4,290
• Key support levels: 4,152 and 4,095

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the resistance level, followed by consolidation above 4,215 USD, would signal the start of a new upward wave, with a target at 4,290 USD.

• Current price: 4,185
• Entry level: 4,215
• Stop loss: 4,187
• Take profit: 4,290
• Risk-to-reward ratio: more than 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 13 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risks to further gains in XAUUSD are a failure to consolidate above the 4,215 USD resistance level, easing geopolitical tensions, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

Summary

Gold is awaiting US inflation data and further action from the Federal Reserve. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards 4,290 USD.

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