XAUUSD has fallen more than 26% from its all-time high

Gold prices remain under pressure amid growing expectations of further monetary policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve, currently standing at 4,114 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 21 October 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• December gold futures fell by 0.55% to 4,137
• Elevated inflation limits the Federal Reserve's scope to ease monetary policy
• XAUUSD forecast for 21 October 2026: 3,970

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 21 October 2026, indicates that the main factor weighing on prices remains the shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions. Data released on 14 October showed that annual US inflation accelerated to 3.7%. Consumer prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month, driven primarily by higher petrol prices.

According to a Reuters poll published on 20 October, 94 out of 100 economists expect the interest rate to remain at 3.75–4.00% following the 27–28 October meeting. At the same time, respondents anticipate that rate hikes will resume as early as December. The market-implied probability of a December rate increase is estimated at approximately 92%.

Such expectations are a negative factor for gold, as persistently high interest rates make dollar-denominated financial instruments more attractive. Unlike government bonds, gold does not generate interest income, so higher real yields on US assets increase the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal.

Today's XAUUSD forecast also takes into account signs of slowing economic activity in US housing market data. US housing starts fell to an annualised rate of 1.22 million units, coming in below market expectations. The number of new permits for single-family home construction also declined.

Technical outlook

The XAUUSD forecast for 21 October 2026 suggests the downtrend will continue, with prices potentially falling to 3,970 USD.

On the D1 daily chart, gold maintains its downward momentum, indicating sustained selling pressure and the likelihood of further declines in the precious metal's prices. The nearest support level is located at 4,065 USD, while key resistance has formed around 4,205 USD. The H4 chart also shows a continuing downtrend. The support level is located at 4,110 USD, with resistance at 4,185 USD. Consolidation below 4,065 USD would further confirm strengthening bearish momentum and open the way for a decline towards the 3,970 USD target.

The main scenario would be invalidated by a breakout above the 4,205 USD level. Subsequent consolidation above this mark would indicate easing downward pressure and an increased likelihood of an upward correction. In this case, the next upside target could be around 4,315 USD.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,185 and 4,205
• Key support levels: 4,110 and 4,065

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout below the 4,065 USD support level would indicate strengthening bearish momentum and create conditions for opening short positions.

Risk factors

The main risks for XAUUSD remain a further acceleration in US inflation, a possible Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December, persistently high government bond yields, and a stronger US dollar. At the same time, escalating geopolitical tensions, deteriorating US macroeconomic data, and diminishing expectations of further monetary tightening could drive increased demand for gold.

Summary

Gold remains primarily influenced by the high probability of another Fed interest rate hike in December, which supports the US dollar and government bond yields. Despite persistent geopolitical risks, fundamental and technical factors do not yet point to the emergence of a sustained uptrend. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests that prices may decline towards 3,970 USD.

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