The Fed keeps gold on edge: a single statement could derail the XAUUSD recovery

Gold is once again attempting to recover after its decline, supported by lower oil prices, with quotes currently hovering at 4,015 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 26 October 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for 27–28 October
• Energy prices have fallen following diplomatic efforts to ease tensions surrounding Iran
• Another surge in oil prices could increase the likelihood of interest rate hikes
• XAUUSD forecast for 26 October 2026: 4,065 and 3,965

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 26 October 2026, indicates that gold is attempting to recover following a week-long decline, but the metal's outlook still depends on inflation risks and expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates. The upcoming meeting of the US central bank could be the key market event this week.

At the start of trading on Monday, prices gained around 0.4% after falling 4.0% the previous week. The recovery was driven by a decline in oil prices, which eased concerns about another wave of inflation.

The Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for 27–28 October remains a key source of uncertainty. The market largely expects interest rates to remain unchanged, while the likelihood of a rate hike in December is estimated at around 75%. If the central bank delivers a hawkish message, gold could come under additional pressure.

Energy prices have fallen following diplomatic efforts to ease tensions surrounding Iran, but the risk of disruptions to energy supplies remains. Another surge in oil prices could increase the likelihood of interest rate hikes and limit any recovery in XAUUSD prices.

The XAUUSD forecast for 26 October takes into account that the fundamental backdrop for gold remains mixed, with a risk of further declines. While lower oil prices are helping gold recover, expectations of high interest rates and the recent sell-off are limiting its upside potential. The three main triggers for gold this week are the Federal Reserve meeting, comments from the central bank, and PCE inflation data.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and could develop a corrective wave as the pattern's signal plays out. Since XAUUSD remains within a descending channel, the target for the correction is the 4,065 USD resistance level.

However, today's XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests an alternative scenario in which prices fall to 3,965 USD and continue their downward trajectory without testing the resistance level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,065 and 4,145
• Key support levels: 3,965 and 3,940

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

Following a correction towards the 4,065 USD resistance level, prices could resume their downtrend.

Risk factors

The main risk factors for XAUUSD remain uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy, inflation developments in the US, changes in US government bond yields, and fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate. Persistently high inflation and growing expectations of interest rate hikes could add to pressure on gold, pushing prices lower.

Summary

Gold remains sensitive to geopolitical developments and energy prices. The main catalyst for XAUUSD this week will be the Federal Reserve meeting. Meanwhile, today's XAUUSD technical analysis suggests that prices could correct towards 4,065 USD before declining.

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