XAUUSD attempts to recover as the Fed holds rates steady

Following an attempt to recover, gold is falling again as markets await US economic data, with prices currently hovering at 4,023 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 29 October 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Federal Reserve kept its interest rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%
• Global gold ETFs also attracted around 10 billion USD in investment in September
• XAUUSD forecast for 29 October 2026: 3,900

Fundamental analysis

Today's XAUUSD price forecast for 29 October 2026 shows that gold continues its attempts at recovery within a local uptrend.

The key event yesterday was the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady at 3.75%–4.00%. Ten FOMC members voted to maintain the existing monetary policy settings, while two supported a 25-basis-point rate hike. The central bank also upgraded its assessment of the US economy, citing resilient consumer spending, strong investment activity, and a stable labour market. However, inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target.

Comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh were somewhat more dovish than market participants had initially expected. Warsh highlighted the tightening of credit conditions since the September meeting and improvements in certain measures of inflation expectations. He also declined to provide any advance signals about the December decision, emphasising the need to assess incoming macroeconomic data. This stance eased concerns that the rate-hiking cycle would inevitably continue and provided short-term support for gold.

The XAUUSD forecast for 29 October also takes into account the situation in the energy market as an additional negative factor. A further rise in energy prices could intensify inflationary pressure in the US and force the Fed to maintain tight monetary policy for longer than previously expected.

Technical outlook

On the D1 chart, XAUUSD has formed a support level at 3,975 USD, while resistance lies at 4,145 USD. On the H4 chart, a local support level is located at 3,990 USD, with resistance at 4,065 USD.

Given the ongoing downtrend, a further decline in XAUUSD prices remains the most likely scenario. If a local support level at 3,990 USD is broken, the downside target could be 3,900 USD.

An alternative scenario suggests an upward correction, with a potential rise towards 4,145 USD. This would require a breakout above the nearest resistance level at 4,065 USD.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,065 and 4,145
• Key support levels: 3,990 and 3,975

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

Following a correction towards resistance at 4,065 USD, prices may continue their downward trajectory.

Risk factors

The main risks to the forecast are linked to potential changes in expectations for the Fed's December decision, the release of US inflation and GDP data, movements in US Treasury yields, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The possibility of sharp fluctuations in the dollar following the publication of macroeconomic data creates additional uncertainty.

Summary

The Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged and Kevin Warsh's subsequent comments provided short-term support for gold, but fundamental conditions are not yet sufficient for a sustained recovery. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests that prices could fall towards 3,900 USD following a correction.

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