Elections and oil unsettle gold: XAUUSD back near 3,940 USD

XAUUSD prices are hovering around 3,940 amid uncertainty surrounding the results of the US midterm elections and falling oil prices. However, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December continue to limit gold's upside potential. Prices currently stand at 3,940 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 4 November 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Uncertainty surrounding the US midterm elections is drawing investors' attention to the outlook for fiscal and monetary policy
• Falling oil prices are reducing inflation risks, but the market still estimates the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in December at around 78%
• Inflows into physically backed gold ETFs reached a record 31 billion USD in Q3
• XAUUSD forecast for 4 November 2026: 3,897

Fundamental analysis

Gold is trading around 3,940, virtually unchanged following its recent decline. Investors are focused on the results of the US midterm elections, which could shift the balance of power in Congress and increase uncertainty surrounding future fiscal policy.

Early results indicate that Democrats are gaining ground in several key races. A potential change in control of either chamber of Congress could affect the outlook for government spending and tax policy, so the market is closely assessing the possible implications for US debt, yields, and the dollar.

Falling oil prices are providing additional support for gold. Oil quotes remain near four-week lows amid renewed diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran. Lower energy prices are easing inflationary pressure and reducing the need for prolonged tightening of Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Nevertheless, expectations of another rate hike remain a significant source of pressure on XAUUSD. The market estimates the likelihood of a December hike at around 78%. Persistently hawkish interest rate expectations are limiting demand for gold as a non-interest-bearing asset.

The XAUUSD forecast for 4 November 2026 is bearish.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD maintains a bearish structure on the H4 timeframe. Following a sharp decline towards 3,890, prices staged a corrective rebound but failed to consolidate above 3,968 and remain below the middle Bollinger Band. Today's XAUUSD forecast suggests a further decline, with a potential target at 3,897.

MACD remains below the zero line, although the indicator line is positioned above the signal line, suggesting that the previous bearish momentum is weakening. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and is forming a moderate bearish crossover. A breakout below the local support level at 3,933 would provide an additional signal in favour of sellers.

The primary scenario would be invalidated if prices consolidate above the 3,968.75 resistance level. Such a signal would indicate a strengthening corrective recovery and create conditions for a move towards 4,004 and then 4,040.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 3,968 and 4,004
• Key support levels: 3,933 and 3,897

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout below local support, followed by consolidation below 3,933, would create conditions for opening short positions and confirm renewed bearish momentum.

Risk factors

The main risk to the XAUUSD bearish scenario is a further decline in oil prices, which could reduce inflation expectations and lower the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. Heightened political and fiscal uncertainty following the US midterm elections could provide additional support for gold. Consolidation above 3,968 would weaken the bearish scenario and increase the likelihood of a recovery towards 4,004.

Summary

The XAUUSD forecast for 4 November 2026 suggests that bearish momentum will persist, with a potential downside target at 3,897 and further confirmation should prices break below 3,933.

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