Election results ease uncertainty: XAUUSD could start to rise again

The rise in gold was primarily driven by sharp weakening of the US dollar following the US midterm elections. Falling US government bond yields provided additional support. Prices are currently hovering at 4,125 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 5 November 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to around 4.89%, down from 4.95% the previous day
• According to ADP, private sector employment increased by 86 thousand jobs in October, against a forecast of 69 thousand
• A World Gold Council report published on 3 November showed that central banks purchased 321 tonnes of gold in Q3 2026, 42% more than in the same period last year
• XAUUSD forecast for 5 November 2026: 4,230

Fundamental analysis

The Democratic Party gained control of both chambers of Congress following the midterm elections. This heightened concerns about political confrontation between Congress and Donald Trump's administration. The weakening of the US dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, supporting demand.

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to around 4.89%, down from 4.95% the previous day. The market is reassessing expectations for US fiscal policy, government spending, and economic growth. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not generate interest income. This factor also supports XAUUSD's upward momentum.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding talks between the US and Iran are supporting demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, high oil prices increase inflation risks and could force the Federal Reserve to maintain tight monetary policy. Geopolitical tensions therefore have a mixed impact on gold: they increase safe-haven demand but also raise the likelihood that interest rates will remain high.

The XAUUSD forecast for 5 November 2026 is bullish.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD prices have approached the upper boundary of their sideways channel. On the D1 chart, the 4,085 resistance level has been broken, and a new resistance level has yet to form, while support is located at 3,870. On the H4 chart, a local support level has formed at 3,895, with resistance at 4,135. A breakout above 4,135 could trigger an uptrend. Today's XAUUSD forecast suggests further growth, with a potential target at 4,230.

The main scenario would be invalidated if prices consolidate below the 4,055 support level. Such a signal would indicate a stronger decline towards 3,895.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance level: 4,135
• Key support level: 4,055

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout above the local resistance level, XAUUSD quotes consolidating above 4,135, would set the stage for opening long positions and confirm renewed bullish momentum.

Risk factors

The key risk to further gains in gold is persistently high US inflation and a possible Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December. Strong US labour market data, a recovery in the US Dollar Index, and rising government bond yields could exert additional pressure. At the same time, political uncertainty in the US, a further decline in yields, and escalating geopolitical tensions could strengthen demand for safe-haven assets. The Nonfarm Payrolls data, scheduled for release on 6 November, will be particularly important.

Summary

The fundamental outlook for XAUUSD is predominantly favourable for buyers in the short term. A weaker US dollar, falling Treasury yields, and heightened political uncertainty are setting the stage for a further recovery in prices. Meanwhile, sustained investment demand from central banks and gold ETFs provides additional medium-term support. However, persistent inflation risks and the high likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike limit the upside potential.

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