Gold returns above 4,000: NFP to determine whether the recovery can extend

XAUUSD prices are hovering around 4,050 USD following a strong recovery, driven by a weaker dollar, falling yields, and lower oil prices. The market is now awaiting the NFP report, which could determine gold's next move. Find out more in our analysis for 6 November 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• A weaker dollar, declining US Treasury yields, and falling oil prices are supporting gold's recovery
• The market estimates the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December at around 70.9%, making Friday's NFP report a key focus
• XAUUSD forecast for 6 November 2026: 4,146.90

Fundamental analysis

Gold is holding around 4,050 USD following a strong recovery, bolstered by a weaker dollar, falling US bond yields, and lower oil prices. Following the US midterm elections, investors are reassessing their expectations for fiscal policy, economic growth, and the future path of Federal Reserve interest rates.

Falling oil prices are easing inflation concerns and gradually tempering expectations for aggressive monetary policy tightening. Against this backdrop, gold is once again responding more favourably to the combination of a weaker dollar and lower yields.

Nevertheless, expectations of another rate hike have not disappeared entirely. The market estimates the likelihood of a December Federal Reserve move at around 70.9%. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, so XAUUSD's next move will depend directly on incoming macroeconomic data.

Friday's US labour market report will be the main event. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by approximately 65 thousand, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain around 4.2%. Stronger data could support the dollar and renew pressure on gold. Conversely, a weak report would further reduce expectations of a December rate hike and support a continued recovery in XAUUSD prices.

The XAUUSD forecast for 6 November 2026 is bullish.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD is maintaining its recovery structure after reversing from the 3,895.85 level. Strong momentum pushed prices above 4,100.00 and allowed them to test the key resistance level at 4,146.90, after which a correction began. Quotes remain well above the recent low and are still holding above the ascending trendline. Today's XAUUSD forecast suggests renewed growth, with a potential target at 4,146.90.

MACD is above the zero line, confirming that the overall recovery momentum remains intact. However, the indicator line has slipped slightly below the signal line, pointing to the current correction. The Stochastic Oscillator has fallen sharply into oversold territory, with the %K line at 7.20 and the %D line at 28.06. This increases the likelihood of a technical rebound once the current downward wave has ended.

A recovery above the 4,065.60 resistance level would further confirm the bullish scenario. The primary scenario would be invalidated if prices break below the 4,031.65 support level and consolidate beneath it. In this case, selling pressure would intensify, with the next targets at 3,997.70 and 3,963.75.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,065.60 and 4,146.90
• Key support levels: 4,031.65 and 3,997.70

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

A recovery in XAUUSD quotes above the local resistance level at 4,065.60 would confirm that the current correction has ended and create conditions for opening long positions in anticipation of a continued recovery.

Risk factors

The main risk to the XAUUSD bullish scenario is a strong NFP report, which could strengthen expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, support the dollar, and drive Treasury yields higher again. A recovery in oil prices could also be a negative factor. Consolidation below 4,031.65 would weaken the bullish scenario and increase the likelihood of a decline towards 3,997.70.

Summary

The XAUUSD forecast for 6 November 2026 indicates that recovery momentum is likely to persist, with a potential upside target at 4,146.90 and further confirmation should prices break above 4,065.60.

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