XAUUSD poised for a breakout, with US CPI the key catalyst

Gold continues to strengthen following the release of US employment data, with prices currently hovering at 4,125 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 9 November 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US initial jobless claims: previously at 60 thousand; currently at 165 thousand
• US Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at 3.7%; projected at 4.2%
• XAUUSD forecast for 9 November 2026: 4,190

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 9 November 2026, shows that spot gold has gained around 1.4%, reaching 4,123 USD per ounce. The recovery was supported by a weaker dollar and easing concerns about a further rise in inflation.

The US economy added 165 thousand jobs in October, exceeding expectations of 65 thousand. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. The strong figures reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December, putting pressure on gold as a non-interest-bearing asset.

Falling oil prices are supporting precious metals. Donald Trump's statements suggesting that further strikes on Iran are less likely have eased concerns about disruptions to energy supplies. Lower oil prices reduce inflation risks and the likelihood of interest rates remaining high for an extended period.

Political changes in the US are increasing interest in safe-haven assets. Following the Democrats' victory in the midterm elections, investors are assessing the outlook for fiscal policy and possible cuts in military spending. Expectations of a shift in foreign policy and easing geopolitical tensions have a mixed impact on demand for gold.

The US CPI for October is due to be released on 10 November. Accelerating inflation could strengthen the dollar and fuel expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, while slower price growth could provide additional support for gold.

The XAUUSD forecast for 9 November 2026 takes into account that the fundamental backdrop for gold is becoming moderately positive. A weaker dollar, falling oil prices, and hopes of de-escalation in the conflict surrounding Iran are supporting a recovery in prices. However, the strong US labour market and the possibility of a December Federal Reserve rate hike remain significant constraints on growth. The main event in the coming days will be the release of US CPI inflation data.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the middle Bollinger Band and could extend their upward wave as the pattern's signal plays out. Since XAUUSD remains within an ascending channel, the target for further growth is the 4,190 USD resistance level.

However, today's XAUUSD technical analysis also envisages an alternative scenario in which prices correct towards 4,085 USD and continue their upward momentum after testing the support level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,145 and 4,190
• Key support levels: 4,085 and 3,990

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout above the 4,145 resistance level would create opportunities for long positions, with a view to further upside.

Risk factors

The main risk to further gains in XAUUSD is growing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December, which could support the dollar and push Treasury yields higher.

Summary

Gold continues to recover following the release of US employment data, with US CPI figures set to be the main catalyst this week. Today's XAUUSD technical analysis suggests a rise towards the 4,190 USD resistance level.

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