Strong NFP weighs on gold: XAUUSD struggles to break above 4,150 USD

XAUUSD prices are correcting following strong gains last week, as an upbeat US labour market report has sharply raised expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December. However, falling oil prices and safe-haven demand are limiting pressure on gold, with prices currently hovering at 4,114 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 10 November 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US economy added 165 thousand jobs in October, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. This fuelled expectations of further Federal Reserve policy tightening
• The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December rose to around 84%
• XAUUSD forecast for 10 November 2026: 4,044

Fundamental analysis

Gold is declining towards 4,114 USD after a strong previous week. The main pressure on XAUUSD comes from Friday's US labour market report, which was considerably stronger than expected and restored market confidence in another Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 165 thousand in October, following a rise of 60 thousand in September, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Following the strong data, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December rose to around 84%, up from 72.8% before the release.

Rising interest rate expectations remain a negative factor for gold, as higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset. Consequently, strong US economic data limits the potential for XAUUSD to quickly extend its recent gains.

At the same time, falling oil prices are partially easing the pressure. Rhetoric from US President Donald Trump has reduced the likelihood of further strikes on Iran, leading to lower energy prices and easing inflation concerns. Meanwhile, cautious sentiment in the stock market and falling bond yields are sustaining some safe-haven demand for gold.

The XAUUSD forecast for 10 November 2026 is bearish.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes are maintaining their recovery structure after reversing from the 3,893.00 area, but buyers are encountering strong resistance at 4,146.90 for the second time. Following a failure to consolidate above this level, prices have retreated to 4,114.01, forming a local downward correction. Today's XAUUSD forecast suggests a further decline, with a potential target at 4,044.00.

MACD remains above the zero line, with the indicator line slightly above the signal line, so the medium-term recovery momentum has not yet been completely exhausted. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator has formed a bearish crossover in the upper part of its range, with the %K line at 65.01, compared to the %D line at 71.24. A breakout below the 4,104.40 support level would further confirm the bearish scenario.

A breakout and subsequent consolidation above the 4,146.90 resistance level would invalidate the main scenario, shifting the advantage back to buyers and opening the way towards 4,195.00 and then 4,226.57.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,146.90 and 4,226.57
• Key support levels: 4,104.40 and 4,044.00

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout below a local support level followed by consolidation below 4,104.40 would confirm a correction and set the stage for opening short positions.

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish XAUUSD scenario remains a further decline in oil prices and US Treasury yields, which could reduce inflation expectations and lower the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December. A renewed shift towards risk aversion could provide additional support for gold. Consolidation above 4,146.90 would invalidate the local bearish scenario and increase the likelihood of a rise towards 4,226.57.

Summary

The XAUUSD forecast for 10 November 2026 points to a developing local downward correction, with a potential target at 4,044.00 and further confirmation should prices break below 4,104.40.

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