Rising US inflation weighs on gold: XAUUSD falls below 4,000

Gold prices continue to fall sharply amid a stronger US dollar, rising US government bond yields, and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening. Prices currently stand at 3,890 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 13 November 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, against a forecast of 0.3%
• The probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike in December reached approximately 91%
• XAUUSD forecast for 13 November 2026: 3,800

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 13 November 2026, shows that the main fundamental factor remains the release of US inflation data for October. The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4% month-on-month, against a forecast of 0.3%, indicating persistent price pressures in the US economy. Higher-than-expected inflation has significantly altered market expectations regarding future Federal Reserve decisions. Investors have increasingly priced in the possibility of an interest rate hike at the December meeting, strengthening the US dollar and triggering a substantial sell-off in gold.

Hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials are adding to pressure on the precious metal. Against this backdrop, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December has reached approximately 91%, while market participants are also considering more aggressive monetary policy tightening. This is weighing on gold, as higher interest rates make dollar-denominated debt instruments more attractive relative to assets that do not generate interest income.

A deterioration in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has become another source of pressure on gold. Oil prices rose by more than 1%, fuelling concerns about a further acceleration in inflation. Despite gold's traditional role as a safe-haven asset, geopolitical tensions are having a mixed impact on the market in the current environment. Higher energy costs increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain restrictive policy, adding pressure on the precious metal through higher interest rates and a stronger dollar.

The XAUUSD forecast for 13 November takes into account that long-term supportive factors for gold remain in place. Central bank purchases, diversification of international reserves, and investment demand for safe-haven assets could limit the extent of the downward correction. In the near term, however, these factors are being outweighed by US inflation, rising bond yields, and shifting expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rates.

Technical outlook

Within its sideways channel, XAUUSD has once again moved towards the lower boundary. On the D1 chart, a resistance level has formed at 4,145. Support at 3,895 has been broken, and a new support level has yet to form. On the H4 chart, local support has formed at 3,850, while resistance has shifted to 4,065. Prices could establish a downtrend if they break below 3,895. Today's XAUUSD forecast suggests a continued decline, with a potential target at 3,750.

The main scenario would be invalidated if prices consolidated above the 4,065 resistance level. Such a signal would indicate an acceleration in the rise towards 4,145.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance level: 4,065
• Key support level: 3,850

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

A pullback towards 3,895 could mark the end of the correction and the beginning of a new upward wave, creating conditions for opening long positions.

Risk factors

The main risk to a continued downward movement in XAUUSD remains a possible shift in expectations regarding future Federal Reserve monetary policy. Despite high inflation, weaker US macroeconomic figures could prompt market participants to revise their interest rate forecasts. In particular, a lower-than-expected PPI reading could trigger a decline in US bond yields and a weakening of the dollar.

Summary

The fundamental backdrop for gold remains largely unfavourable. Higher-than-expected US inflation, hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, a stronger US dollar, and rising government bond yields could keep XAUUSD prices under pressure. Further uncertainty stems from the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which is increasing inflation risks under current conditions.

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