Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: gold back in the game

Overall, gold is recouping some of its recent losses after declining in previous trading sessions. On 16 October, the spot price was around 4,187 USD per ounce, while December futures rose above 4,200 USD.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Market focus: US inflation accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year in September, while core CPI stood at 2.6%. This complicates the Fed’s efforts to contain price growth and limits the scope for gains in gold
• Current trend: on the daily chart, gold is moving sideways between the lower and upper Bollinger Bands. Prices are testing the 4,175 area but remain below the indicator’s middle line. MACD is in negative territory and still reflects weakness in medium-term momentum. Following its rise, the Stochastic Oscillator is correcting and testing the 50 level, increasing the likelihood of a correction
• Fundamentals and outlook: the baseline scenario suggests a further recovery attempt if prices consolidate above the 4,180–4,220 zone. To strengthen upward momentum, gold needs to overcome the nearest resistance level at 4,280. A sustained move above this mark would open the way towards 4,750. A return below 3,920 would invalidate the bullish scenario and restore the sellers’ advantage

What moves gold next week

Fundamental conditions for gold remain challenging. US inflation accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year in September, while core CPI stood at 2.6%. This complicates the Fed’s efforts to contain price growth and limits the scope for gains in gold.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has not indicated what the next interest rate move will be. Uncertainty remains high, and the possibility of a rate hike in December continues to pose a substantial risk to XAUUSD. As for the dollar and government bond yields, a weaker US currency and lower Treasury yields are helping gold recover. However, if yields begin to rise again, interest in the metal could weaken.

Geopolitics and demand for safe-haven assets also play a role: tensions in the Middle East and concerns about the resilience of certain equity market segments are supporting demand for safe-haven instruments. At the same time, higher oil prices could intensify inflation risks.

Thus, gold is receiving short-term support from falling yields and energy-related risks, but its subsequent direction will depend on the Fed’s statements and interest rate decisions.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, XAUUSD is moving sideways between the lower and upper Bollinger Bands. Prices are testing the 4,175 area but remain below the indicator’s middle line.

The MACD histogram is in negative territory and gradually contracting, suggesting that upward momentum could continue, although it still reflects weakness in the medium-term trend. Following its rise, the Stochastic Oscillator is correcting and testing the 50 level, increasing the likelihood that the corrective wave will continue.

The key resistance zone is around 4,180–4,220. A breakout would signal a continued correction, which could subsequently develop into the beginning of an uptrend. The next upside target would be the 4,750 USD resistance level.

Prices are hovering in the lower half of Bollinger Bands and testing the middle line, which acts as resistance. A breakout and consolidation above it would signal a continued rise.

Technical analysis suggests that the advantage is gradually shifting towards buyers, although the longer-term technical picture remains vulnerable.

Gold trading scenario for next week

The current rebound has not yet been confirmed by a breakout above the nearest resistance level, so buying directly around 4,180 is premature.

Buy scenario

A sustained move above 4,220 would confirm further growth and allow traders to target a return to 4,750.

• Entry level: Buy Stop 4,220
• Stop loss: 4,100
• Take profit: 4,750
• Risk-to-reward: more than 1:4

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM 23 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

If XAUUSD falls below 4,000 USD, the trading idea will not be activated.

Summary

The XAUUSD outlook remains mixed, although a rise currently looks slightly more likely in the short term. A weaker dollar and falling yields are supporting gold, but high US inflation is limiting gains. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for 19–23 October suggests further upside if prices consolidate above 4,220, with a potential upside target at the 4,750 USD resistance level.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

The EURUSD outlook for 2026 and 2027: key levels on the daily chart, three trading scenarios and the policy gap between the Fed and the ECB that drives the pair.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

Where gold could trade in 2026: key levels, three trading scenarios with entry triggers and the forecasts from J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs.