Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast for 26–30 October 2026: the market seeks upward momentum

What moves gold next week

Gold is ending the week under selling pressure, having fallen by as much as 3.6% over the week. The main negative factors were rising oil prices and growing concerns that inflation would remain elevated, forcing the Federal Reserve to keep monetary policy tight for longer. This is supporting the US dollar and US bond yields.

The Federal Reserve meeting on 27–28 October will be the primary focus next week. The market largely expects rates to remain unchanged, making the Fed's statements and the chairman's press conference particularly significant. If policymakers point to persistent inflation risks and the need to keep interest rates high for longer, the US dollar and yields could receive further support. Conversely, a more dovish tone could ease pressure on gold.

Additional drivers will be the US Q3 GDP figures and September's Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, due on Thursday, 29 October. These indicators will help assess the economy's health and inflation trends ahead of future Fed decisions. Strong economic growth combined with elevated inflationary pressure could strengthen expectations that interest rates will remain high.

Overall, the fundamental picture remains mixed. High oil prices and the risk of continued tight Fed policy limit XAUUSD's recovery potential, while a softer tone from the central bank, falling yields, and weaker inflation figures could bring buyers back to the market. In the coming days, the direction of movement will primarily depend on signals from the Federal Reserve.

Week calendar

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, gold is falling within a Triangle pattern. Prices are now approaching the pattern's lower boundary, leaving scope for a rebound and the start of a rise. A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel would signal an upward move.

The nearest resistance level is located at 4,110 USD. A breakout above it would indicate renewed buying pressure and further gains towards 4,355 USD. The key medium-term resistance remains at 4,285 USD. At the same time, buyers need to prevent XAUUSD prices from falling below 3,895 USD, which could indicate a breakout below the Triangle's lower boundary.

The Stochastic Oscillator also points to a high probability of a price reversal. The indicator has reached oversold territory and formed a bullish crossover. This signal strengthens the buyers' position.

Overall, XAUUSD technical analysis indicates a high probability of a rise during the next trading week, although buyers need to establish a position above the upper boundary of the descending channel.

Gold trading scenario for next week

A breakout above a local resistance level at 4,110 USD would signal the end of the current correction phase and create conditions for increased buying pressure. The Stochastic Oscillator signal supports the bullish scenario. A breakout above 4,110 USD would also take prices beyond the descending channel's upper boundary. For the bulls, it is important that prices remain within the developing Triangle pattern.

XAUUSD trading scenario

What would change the forecast

• A more hawkish Federal Reserve tone. Signals that high interest rates need to be maintained could strengthen the dollar and lift US bond yields, adding to pressure on gold
• Accelerating US inflation. Rising PCE and ECI readings could reinforce expectations of continued tight monetary policy and limit XAUUSD's recovery
• A breakout below the 3,895 USD support level. A move below this level would confirm a downside breakout from the Triangle pattern and invalidate the recovery scenario

Gold forecast next week: questions and answers

Will gold go up or down next week?

The outlook for 26–30 October 2026 is bullish. XAUUSD prices have approached the Triangle pattern's lower boundary, which could trigger an upward rebound. A breakout above 4,110 USD would open the way towards 4,285 USD. The Stochastic Oscillator's oversold reading strengthens the bullish signal. The key level to watch this week remains 4,110 USD.

What are the key gold levels for 26–30 October 2026?

A key support level is located at 3,895 USD, followed by 3,675 USD. Resistance levels are 4,285 and 4,355, followed by 4,525 and 4,735. A breakout of 4,110 will determine the direction for the week, while a fall below 3,895 would invalidate the bullish outlook.

What moves gold next week?

The main events next week will be the Federal Reserve meeting and the release of GDP and PCE data. Falling yields and softer signals from the Fed could create conditions for an XAUUSD recovery, while persistent inflationary pressure would increase the risk of a continued correction.

Summary

Gold is ending the trading week lower and approaching the lower boundary of the Triangle pattern, where buying pressure is expected to increase. A bullish crossover on the Stochastic Oscillator supports the upside scenario, although confirmation requires a breakout above the descending channel's upper boundary.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for 26–30 October 2026 suggests a recovery if prices break above 4,111, with scope for a move towards 4,355.

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