Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: the 4,000 USD level comes under pressure again
Short answer: gold price forecast for next week
Gold will start the new week near 4,000 USD per ounce following its second consecutive month of declines. High inflation and resilient US economic growth are keeping expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike alive, while XAUUSD is once again testing a key technical area.
This week will show whether the 4,000 level can halt the decline or whether the correction will continue.
- Price at the time of writing
- 3,992 USD
- Bias for the week
- BearishD1
- Weekly range
- 3,900–4,225
- Trigger level
- 3,990
- Forecast invalid above
- 4,227
- Main event
- US Nonfarm Payrolls
Updated 30 October 2026, 09:37 (UTC+3)
What moves gold next week
Market focus: the main driver for gold will be a reassessment of the outlook for the Federal Reserve's December decision following new US labour market data. September's PCE rose by 0.5% month-on-month, with annual inflation accelerating to 3.6% and the core metric reaching 3.1%. Amid persistent price pressures, the market continues to price in a high probability of a December rate hike, so strong employment data could further worsen conditions for gold.
Current trend: on the daily chart, XAUUSD retains a bearish structure and is trading near the lower Bollinger Band at around 4,000. MACD is deep in negative territory, confirming the sellers' advantage. The Stochastic Oscillator has recovered from oversold territory but remains below the neutral midpoint of its range and has yet to generate a convincing reversal signal.
Weekly forecast: the baseline scenario suggests further declines if prices consolidate below 3,990. In this case, the next target will be the 3,900 area. Holding the psychological 4,000 level could trigger a technical rebound, but gold needs to recover above 4,225 to change the overall bearish bias.
Week calendar
| Day | Event | Why it matters for XAUUSD |
|---|---|---|
| 3 November | US midterm elections | Heightened political uncertainty could temporarily increase demand for safe-haven assets and volatility in the US dollar and US bonds. |
| 6 November | US Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment | The week's main event for gold. A strong labour market would support expectations of a December Fed rate hike and could put further pressure on XAUUSD, while weak data would reduce yields and support the metal. |
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the daily chart, gold remains in a pronounced downtrend following the August high near 4,695. The sequence of lower highs persists, while prices have once again fallen towards the 4,000 area, where a strong base formed over the summer.
The nearest support zone lies around 3,990–4,000. A breakout below it would shift attention to the psychological 3,900 level, potentially leading to a deeper correction. The nearest significant resistance level is located at 4,226.57, followed by 4,399.47 and the key 4,695.21 area.
Prices are hovering near the lower Bollinger Band and well below the indicator's middle line. MACD is below zero, with the main line remaining below the signal line, confirming continued downward momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator has recovered to around 40 after recently reaching oversold territory, but it has yet to confirm a sustained return of buyers.
The technical picture remains bearish, although selling directly at the psychological 4,000 level requires confirmation of a breakout below the support level.
Gold trading scenario for next week
The 4,000 level remains the key boundary for the current move. Selling becomes relevant only after XAUUSD consolidates below the nearest support level, as prices remaining above it increase the likelihood of a corrective rebound.
A return above 4,227 would invalidate the bearish forecast and signal a deeper recovery.
XAUUSD trading scenario
What would change the forecast
- A weak US labour market report could reduce the likelihood of a December Federal Reserve rate hike, trigger a decline in yields, and revive demand for gold
- A recovery in XAUUSD prices above 4,227 would disrupt the current sequence of lower highs and weaken the bearish technical structure
- A sharp escalation of geopolitical tensions would revive safe-haven demand for gold regardless of current interest rate expectations
Gold forecast next week: questions and answers
Will gold rise or fall next week?
The outlook for 2–6 November remains bearish while XAUUSD trades around 4,000 and below 4,227. A breakout below the 3,990 level would open the way for further declines towards 3,900.
What are the key gold levels for 2–6 November 2026?
The main support zone is located at 3,990–4,000, with the next target at 3,900. The nearest significant resistance level lies at 4,227, followed by 4,399.
What will move gold next week?
The main macroeconomic driver will be Friday's US employment report, which could alter expectations for the Fed's December interest rate decision. The US midterm elections and movements in Treasury yields could provide additional sources of volatility.
Summary
Gold will enter the new week near the psychological 4,000 USD level following its second consecutive month of declines. The strong US economy and persistent expectations of further Federal Reserve policy tightening continue to put pressure on the metal.
The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for 2–6 November suggests further declines following a breakout below 3,990, with the nearest target around 3,900.
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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.