Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: gold has resumed its rise, but momentum remains relatively weak
Short answer: gold price forecast for next week
Compared with the previous week, the fundamental picture for gold has improved markedly. A weaker US dollar, lower US Treasury yields, and the results of the midterm congressional elections have allowed XAUUSD to recover above the psychological 4,000 level.
This week will show whether gold can break above 4,200.
- Price at the time of writing
- 4,032 USD
- Bias for the week
- BearishD1
- Weekly range
- 3,895–4,085
- Trigger level
- 3,895
- Forecast invalidation level
- 4,085
- Main event
- US CPI
Updated 9 November 2026, 06:55 (UTC+3)
What moves gold next week
Market focus: October employment growth exceeded the market consensus by 100,000 jobs, while the September figure was revised upwards. At the same time, unemployment declined and wage growth accelerated. This indicates a resilient US labour market and persistent risks of inflationary pressure. As a result, two important factors that had supported gold after the US midterm elections – a weak dollar and declining yields – have begun to move in the opposite direction.
Current trend: a modest rise has begun on the daily XAUUSD chart. Since late September 2026, prices have been trading in a downtrend, with a short-term transition into a sideways channel. Volatility remains fairly low. Resistance has formed at 4,085, with support at 3,895.
Weekly forecast: the baseline scenario envisages further declines if prices consolidate below 4,000. In this case, the next target will be the 3,800 area. A new bullish trend can only be considered if the price breaks above 4,085.
Week calendar
| Day | Event | Why it matters for XAUUSD |
|---|---|---|
| 10 November | US CPI | Following the strong NFP report, investors will pay particularly close attention to consumer inflation trends. An acceleration in the CPI and core measure would strengthen expectations of a December Fed rate increase, support the dollar and US Treasury yields, and put additional pressure on XAUUSD. Weaker data could reduce the likelihood of monetary tightening and support a gold recovery. |
| 13 November | US PPI | The Producer Price Index will help assess inflationary pressure at earlier stages of price formation and clarify the outlook for consumer inflation. An acceleration in the PPI following strong employment data would strengthen the case for the Fed to maintain tight monetary policy and could increase pressure on XAUUSD. A weaker reading could reduce the dollar and Treasury yields, supporting demand for gold. |
XAUUSD technical analysis
The baseline scenario for 9–13 November envisages further declines in XAUUSD amid strong US labour market data, a strengthening dollar, and persistent expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary tightening. Consolidation below the psychological 4,000 level would increase selling pressure and open the way towards the intermediate levels of 3,900–3,870, followed by a target in the 3,800 area. A new bullish trend can only be considered if prices break above resistance at 4,085 and consolidate there.
In that case, the next upside targets would be 4,150 and 4,227. The key factor capable of changing gold's direction will be the release of October US inflation data. Higher-than-expected inflation would strengthen the bearish scenario, while a slowdown could weaken the dollar and support a recovery in XAUUSD.
Gold trading scenario for next week
The 4,085 level remains the key level for the current trend. Selling becomes relevant only after XAUUSD consolidates below this level and breaks through support.
A return above 4,085 would invalidate the bearish forecast and signal a deeper recovery.
XAUUSD trading scenario
What would change the forecast
Weaker-than-expected October inflation, lower Treasury yields, and renewed US dollar weakness could offset the negative impact of NFP and bring buyers back into the gold market.
A recovery in XAUUSD above 4,085 would confirm buyers' strength and reinforce the uptrend.
A sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions would revive safe-haven demand for gold regardless of current interest rate expectations.
Gold forecast next week: questions and answers
Will gold rise or fall next week?
The outlook for 9–13 November remains bearish while XAUUSD trades around 4,085. A breakout below 3,895 would open the way for a further decline towards 3,800.
What are the key gold levels for 9–13 November 2026?
The main support is located around 3,895. The nearest significant resistance is at 4,085.
What will move gold next week?
The main event will be the release of US CPI data on 10 November, followed by the PPI report on 13 November at the same time. Both reports cover October. Following the strong NFP figures, the market will be particularly sensitive to inflation. If it also exceeds forecasts, a combination of a resilient labour market and elevated price pressures would substantially strengthen the case for a Fed rate increase in December.
Summary
Gold will enter the new week near the psychological 4,000 USD level following its second consecutive month of declines. The strong US economy and persistent expectations of further Federal Reserve policy tightening continue to put pressure on the metal.
The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for 9–13 November envisages further declines following a breakout below 3,895, with the nearest target around 3,800.
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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.