Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: gold versus the Fed – who will win the battle over price?
Short answer: gold price forecast for next week
Next week, gold's performance will depend primarily on expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy, new inflation data, and the state of the US economy. Following the recent acceleration in US inflation and a stronger dollar, the fundamental environment for gold has deteriorated. At the same time, central bank purchases and investment demand continue to support the market.
Gold closed the previous week below 3,900 USD per ounce and continues to decline. Fundamental factors will determine whether gold can recover this week.
- Prices at the time of writing
- 3,893 USD
- Bias for the week
- BearishD1
- Weekly range
- 3,900–3,790
- Trigger level
- 3,790
- Forecast invalidation level
- 4,085
- Main event
- Publication of the Fed meeting minutes
Updated 13 November 2026, 12:03 (UTC+3)
What moves gold next week
Market focus. Factors that will influence gold:
Hawkish Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. US inflation in October exceeded forecasts, while a strong labour market heightened concerns about further policy tightening. The market estimates the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in December at around 89.0%. This is unfavourable for gold, as high interest rates make dollar-denominated instruments more attractive.
The dollar and bond yields. If the US currency and Treasury yields continue to strengthen, a recovery in XAUUSD may be limited. Conversely, a weaker dollar could drive demand for the metal.
Geopolitical uncertainty. Diminishing hopes for a swift resolution of tensions in the Middle East are supporting demand for safe-haven assets. However, this factor currently has less influence than concerns about inflation and interest rates.
Long-term demand. Central bank gold purchases and investment interest remain crucial supporting factors. Therefore, even if pressure from the Federal Reserve persists, the potential for a deep and prolonged decline is far from certain.
Current trend. On the daily chart, gold declined after testing the middle Bollinger Band and is now testing the lower band. Prices are once again testing the 3,900–3,800 USD area. MACD is in negative territory and continues to reflect weakness in medium-term price action, gradually approaching the zero line. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator has turned upwards and crossed the 20 level from below, which could signal a new upward wave.
Fundamentals and outlook. The baseline scenario suggests another recovery attempt if prices return above 4,000 USD. To strengthen upward momentum, gold needs to overcome the nearest resistance level at 4,150. Consolidation above this mark would open the way for a rise towards 4,400. A decline below 3,790 would invalidate the recovery scenario and once again give sellers the advantage.
Week calendar
| Day | Event | Why it matters for XAUUSD |
|---|---|---|
| Monday, 16 November | US Empire State Manufacturing Index | Weak data could weaken the dollar. |
| Tuesday, 17 November | US retail sales, import and export price indices, and industrial production | Strong data could fuel expectations of an interest rate hike. |
| Wednesday, 18 November | US housing starts and building permits; FOMC meeting minutes | Inflation assessments and comments from Fed officials could provide insight into the central bank's future monetary policy decisions. |
| Thursday, 19 November | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and US leading economic indicators | These will indicate the state of the economy and could influence interest rate expectations. |
| Friday, 20 November | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations | Rising inflation expectations could put pressure on gold. |
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the daily chart, XAUUSD continues to hit new local lows. After falling from the 3,890 area, the market found support and prices staged a correction. The support level is now being tested again.
Prices are hovering near the lower Bollinger Band and could rebound. MACD remains below zero and does not yet confirm a full-fledged reversal, although the conditions for one are emerging. The Stochastic Oscillator is pointing firmly upwards.
The technical picture therefore remains mixed, but the indicator signals suggest that the decline may soon come to an end and a new upward wave could develop. In this case, the target area would be 4,150–4,400 USD.
Gold trading scenario for next week
The 4,150 level remains the key resistance. Buying will become relevant if XAUUSD quotes consolidate above this level.
A decline below 3,790 would invalidate the bullish outlook and signal a deeper correction.
XAUUSD trading scenario
What would change the forecast
- Signals from the Federal Reserve following the publication of the FOMC meeting minutes, lower Treasury yields, and renewed dollar weakness could offset the negative impact of NFP and bring buyers back into the gold market
- A recovery in XAUUSD above 4,150 would confirm buyers' strength and create conditions for an uptrend
- A sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions would revive safe-haven demand for gold regardless of current interest rate expectations
Gold forecast next week: questions and answers
Will gold rise or fall next week?
The outlook for 16–20 November remains bearish while XAUUSD trades around 3,900. A breakout above 4,150 would open the way for further gains.
What are the key gold levels for 16–20 November 2026?
The main support level lies in the 3,790 area, with the nearest significant resistance level at 4,150.
What will move gold next week?
The main events will be the publication of the Fed meeting minutes and US economic data. If the figures exceed forecasts, the combination of a resilient labour market and elevated price pressures would substantially strengthen the case for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.
Summary
Thus, gold remains under pressure from hawkish expectations for Fed policy, a stronger dollar, and high bond yields. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty and sustained central bank demand continue to support the precious metal. XAUUSD could attempt a recovery if it consolidates above 4,150 USD, while a breakout below 3,790 USD would increase the risk of further declines.
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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.