Global stock indices plummeted again following a minor correction amid tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. Find out more in our analysis and forecast for global indices for 4 February 2025.
US President Donald Trump intended to impose 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada but decided during the negotiations to put this measure on hold for 30 days. Mexico and Canada’s leaders promised to address migration and border control issues during this time.
Tariffs of 10% on goods from China remained unchanged. China, in turn, imposed a 10% tariff on US oil and agricultural machinery and a 15% duty on coal and LNG. It also announced export controls on goods related to tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium.
Bulls and bears are now struggling for the 44,325.0 support level. The price will highly likely break below it and form a downtrend. Otherwise, the quotes will enter a sideways channel, with the uptrend unlikely to continue.
The following scenarios are considered for the US 30 price forecast:
The US 500 stock index is trading within a sideways channel. The 5,925.0 support level was not breached during yesterday’s correction. Sellers may attempt to surpass this level once again. If they fail, the sideways channel will remain relevant in the medium term.
The following scenarios are considered for the US 500 price forecast:
The US Tech stock index, like other US indices, is in a sideways channel. The uptrend will unlikely begin. The price will unlikely reach a new all-time high either. If the price breaks below the support level, a medium-term downtrend could start.
The following scenarios are considered for the US Tech price forecast:
The manufacturing PMI reading of 48.7 in January (down from 49.6 earlier) indicates a stronger decline in the Japanese manufacturing sector. This may be due to more sluggish demand in the country and export markets, rising costs, and other economic factors. The decline in manufacturing activity may weigh on the country’s overall economic outlook, making investors wary.
Japan’s stock market may come under pressure in the short term. However, the Bank of Japan’s decisions and the current policies of the new US administration have a great impact on investors.
The JP 225 stock index has been trading within a sideways channel since September 2024. There are no prerequisites for a trend to form in the medium term. While the channel boundaries may change insignificantly, the trend itself suits most market players.
The following scenarios are considered for the JP 225 price forecast:
The fall in annual inflation to 2.3% (expected at 2.6% and previously at 2.6%) indicates that price growth is gradually stopping. This may be due to easing pressure on energy prices and stabilisation of global supply chains. Falling prices may be indicative of sluggish demand or an economic slowdown, which could adversely affect domestic-oriented companies.
Additionally, a trade conflict between the EU and the US over tariffs is looming. Donald Trump is threatening to tighten trade conditions, including for the EU, which will weigh on the stocks of exporting companies. As the EU leader, Germany will suffer from these restrictions more than other eurozone countries.
The DE 40 stock index remains in an uptrend after a 2.8% correction. According to the DE 40 technical analysis, it will continue in the short term, with the price reaching a new all-time high. The downtrend could form only if the price breaks below the 21,080.0 support level.
The following scenarios are considered for the DE 40 price forecast:
US indices entered the sideways channel, expecting new tariff moves from the US administration. The only exception is the DE 40 index, which remained in an uptrend after the correction. Japan’s JP 225 index has been trading within a sideways range since September last year.
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.