US 500 forecast: hopes for further Fed easing push the index higher

The US 500 continues to hit new all-time highs within the uptrend. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US initial jobless claims for last week came in at 231 thousand
• Market impact: this may have a moderately positive effect on equities

US 500 fundamental analysis

US initial jobless claims totalled 231 thousand last week, below the forecast of 241 thousand and the previous reading of 264 thousand. The drop in claims points to an improving labour market, confirming its resilience. For the stock market, the effect is mixed. On the one hand, a strong labour market supports consumer activity, a positive driver for corporate revenues. On the other hand, employment resilience may limit the Federal Reserve’s willingness to pursue further monetary easing, especially given ongoing inflation risks.

A resilient labour market supports earnings in the consumer and financial sectors and reduces the probability of a recession, boosting investor confidence in corporate profitability. At the same time, such data may push the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious approach in lowering rates, driving bond yields higher and putting pressure on richly valued sectors, including technology.

US 500 technical analysis

After reaching a new all-time high, the US 500 continues its upward trajectory within an uptrend. The support level is at 6,555.0, while the nearest resistance level is yet to form. The most likely scenario is continued growth, with a target near 6,805.0.

The following scenarios are considered for the US 500 price forecast:

• Pessimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout below the 6,555.0 support level could send the index down to 6,440
• Optimistic US 500 scenario: if the price consolidates above the breached 6,640 resistance level, the index could advance to 6,805.0

Summary

For the US 500, the data can be described as moderately positive in the short term, as it confirms economic resilience but also limits expectations for rapid Fed easing. This means the market may see growth driven by cyclical and consumer companies, while the technology segment will likely react more cautiously. From a technical perspective, the US 500 could extend growth towards 6,805.0.

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