Boeing’s multi-billion-dollar reserve sends shares lower

The Boeing Company reported mixed third-quarter results: revenue exceeded analyst expectations, but a major reserve set aside for the Boeing 777X program resulted in a substantial loss. Management warned of challenging years ahead, triggering a sell-off in the stock and a sharp decline in Boeing’s share price.

The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) delivered mixed results for Q3 2025: revenue rose by 30% to 23.3 billion USD, exceeding analyst expectations, but the loss per share was significantly worse than forecast due to a 4.9 billion USD charge related to the 777X program. This provision was linked to yet another delay in the aircraft’s delivery timeline, now postponed to 2027, reflecting ongoing certification challenges.

Operational performance, however, improved. The company delivered 160 aircraft – the highest figure since 2018 – and revenue from the Commercial Airplanes division increased by nearly 50%. The Defense division posted a small profit for the first time in several years, while the Global Services business maintained a stable margin of around 18%. Boeing’s total order backlog exceeded 600 billion USD and included more than 5,900 aircraft, providing a solid foundation for future deliveries.

Management cautioned that 2026 would be a difficult year for cash flow, as Boeing continues to finance the 777X inventory build-up with limited customer advances. According to management’s projections, the program’s positive financial impact will not materialise until 2027–2028, with a meaningful contribution to free cash flow expected only closer to 2030.

Although the company reported a small positive free cash flow for the quarter, the market’s reaction was pessimistic. Investors focused on the weak financial results, the delay to the 777X program, and the outlook for renewed cash consumption. Amid analyst downgrades and lower price targets from investment banks, Boeing shares fell sharply after the report, declining by roughly 20% by 20 November, reflecting doubts about the company’s ability to restore profitability and reduce debt in the coming years.

This article examines The Boeing Company’s operations, outlines its revenue structure, and reviews Boeing’s performance for the 2024 calendar year and for Q1, Q2, and Q3 2025. It also includes a technical analysis of BA stock, forming the basis for the Boeing share price forecast for 2025.

About The Boeing Company

The Boeing Company is one of the world’s largest aerospace and defence firms. It was founded on 15 July 1916 by William Boeing in Seattle, Washington. The company is engaged in designing, manufacturing, and selling commercial aircraft, military equipment, satellites, missile systems, and space technology. Additionally, Boeing offers both support services and financial solutions.

Boeing’s IPO took place in 1962, and the company is listed on the NYSE under the ticker BA.

The Boeing Company’s key revenue streams

The Boeing Company generates revenue from the following sources:

• Commercial Airplanes (BCA): the manufacture and sale of commercial airliners, including the 737, 767, 777 and 787 Dreamliner models. This is the company’s largest segment by revenue, but also the most sensitive to market demand fluctuations, regulatory scrutiny, and technical risks. Boeing is actively working to regain ground following the earlier suspension of 737 MAX deliveries.
• Defense, Space & Security (BDS): covers military aircraft, drones, satellite systems, missiles, and equipment for NASA. This segment delivers stable revenues through long-term contracts with the US government and allied nations.
• Global Services (BGS): aftermarket services, maintenance, personnel training, spare parts supply, digital solutions, and logistics. This division supports Boeing’s customer base in both civil and defence sectors, generating steady profits and high margins.
• Boeing Capital Corporation (BCC): financial services, including leasing and customer financing. This segment helps Boeing clients fund aircraft purchases, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty.

The Boeing Company’s financial position and key risk factors

Boeing ended 2024 with revenues of 66.5 billion USD, down 14% from the previous year. Its net loss reached 11.8 billion USD, significantly higher than the 2.2 billion USD loss recorded in 2023. Negative operating cash flow totalled 12.1 billion USD, underscoring severe financial strain. Despite this, the company’s order backlog remains substantial – around 521 billion USD, including more than 5,500 commercial aircraft orders, which signals sustained long-term demand.

A series of negative factors weighed on Boeing’s 2024 financial performance. Chief among them was a strike by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM), which halted production of the 737, 767, and 777/777X models, significantly impacting delivery volumes. The company also incurred substantial restructuring costs, including staff reductions and internal restructuring. In the defence segment, additional expenses across several contracts further reduced profitability and eroded this division’s margins.

At the end of 2024, Boeing held approximately 26.3 billion USD in cash and marketable securities. However, high debt levels and negative free cash flow pose a risk to the company’s financial stability. Should these figures persist, they could affect Boeing’s credit ratings and its ability to fund future programs.

Despite the challenging situation, Boeing’s management is taking active steps to stabilise operations. Production of key aircraft models resumed after the strike ended. Efforts are underway to reduce costs and improve operational efficiency. Particular focus is being placed on enhancing quality control and ensuring product safety – critical factors in regaining the trust of both customers and aviation regulators.

At the same time, Boeing’s large order book, government contracts, and the potential recovery of its commercial division offer a foundation for a gradual return to stability.

The Boeing Company Q1 2025 financial results

On April 23, The Boeing Company published its Q1 2025 earnings report, which exceeded analysts’ expectations. Below are the key figures:

• Total revenue: 19.49 billion USD (+18%)
• Loss: 31 million USD (compared to 355 million USD in Q1 2024)
• Loss per share: 0.49 USD (compared to 1.13 USD in Q1 2024)
• Operating margin: 2.4% (compared to –0.5% in Q1 2024)
• Free cash flow: -2.3 billion USD (compared to –3.9 billion USD in Q1 2024)
• Aircraft deliveries: 130 units (+57%)

Revenue by segment:

• Aircraft sales revenue: 16.14 billion USD (+21%)
• Service revenue: 3.34 billion USD (+1%)
• Commercial Airplanes: 8.14 billion USD (+75%)
• Defense, Space & Security: 6.26 billion USD (–9%)
• Global Services: 5.06 billion USD (no change)

Boeing’s Q1 2025 report reflected cautious optimism regarding the aviation giant’s recovery. The company reported an adjusted loss per share of 0.49 USD – significantly better than analysts’ forecasts of a loss of 1.24 USD, highlighting the effectiveness of the measures introduced by CEO Kelly Ortberg.

The substantial 57% year-on-year increase in commercial aircraft deliveries, including the 737 MAX, demonstrated operational resilience despite the 2024 challenges related to strikes and regulatory issues. The 737 MAX program gradually ramped up production, with plans to reach 38 aircraft per month by year-end.

The order book grew to 545 billion USD, covering over 5,600 aircraft, providing a solid foundation for future revenue. Regarding cash flow, Boeing showed a smaller outflow than expected, and Ortberg’s forecast of positive cash flow in Q2 2025 reflected ambitious targets. The sale of its Jeppesen division to Thoma Bravo for 10.55 billion USD demonstrated a strategic approach to asset optimisation and strengthening the company’s financial position.

Despite this progress, Boeing continued to face several challenges. Trade tensions between the US and China led Chinese airlines to suspend acceptance of Boeing aircraft, forcing the company to redirect deliveries to other markets. A court hearing was also expected in June over fraud charges relating to the US government and the 737 MAX crashes.

Following the earnings release, Boeing’s share price rose by 6%, although it has remained down 9% since the beginning of the year due to regulatory and geopolitical pressures.

The key factor remained Ortberg’s ability to implement internal reforms and restore investor confidence.

The Boeing Company Q2 2025 financial results

The Boeing Company published its Q2 2025 results on 29 July, once again exceeding analysts’ expectations. Key figures are as follows:

• Revenue: 22.75 billion USD (+35%)
• Net loss: 612 million USD (vs. 1.4 billion USD loss in Q2 2024)
• Loss per share: 1.24 USD (vs. 2.90 USD loss in Q2 2024)
• Operating margin: –0.8% (vs. –6.5% in Q2 2024)
• Free cash flow: –200 million USD (vs. –4.3 billion USD in Q2 2024)
• Aircraft deliveries: 150 units (+63%)

Revenue by segment:

• Commercial aircraft sales: 19.12 billion USD (+41%)
• Services revenue: 3.62 billion USD (+8%)
• Commercial Airplanes: 10.87 billion USD (+81%)
• Defense, Space & Security: 6.61 billion USD (+10%)
• Global Services: 5.28 billion USD (+8%)

In Q2 2025, Boeing demonstrated a significant improvement in its financial performance. Revenue rose by 35% year-on-year to 22.75 billion USD, exceeding market forecasts. The adjusted loss per share narrowed to 1.24 USD from 2.90 USD the previous year. Free cash flow remained negative at 200 million USD, while operating cash flow turned positive at 200 million USD. The total order book expanded to approximately 619 billion USD, covering more than 5,900 commercial aircraft.

The commercial segment was the main growth driver: Boeing delivered 150 aircraft, up 63% year-on-year. Revenue from this division jumped 81% to 10.87 billion USD. However, the operating loss stood at 557 million USD, and the operating margin remained negative at –5.1%.

In the Defense, Space & Security division, revenue increased by 10% to 6.61 billion USD. The segment posted a positive operating profit of around 110 million USD, with a 1.7% margin.

Global Services revenue rose by 8% to 5.28 billion USD. Operating profit reached 1.05 billion USD, with a margin just below 20%.

The company not only improved its financial results but also outlined forward-looking guidance. Boeing expects free cash flow to turn positive by Q4 2025 and strengthen significantly in 2026. Its outlook for 2026 includes delivering more than 700 aircraft, revenue of approximately 80 billion USD, earnings per share of around 3.50 USD, and free cash flow of approximately 5.6 billion USD. A full return to profitability is projected for 2026, as operating losses are expected to persist through 2025 despite ongoing improvement.

Investor response was mixed. Boeing’s share price hit a 52-week high before the report but dropped by 4.4% after the results, despite beating expectations. This may reflect profit-taking following an 88% surge in the share price since April 2025 and caution amid lingering risks.

While Boeing is expected to return to profitability and positive cash flow in 2026, losses and operational challenges persist in 2025. Investors should take a balanced view when considering Boeing shares, especially following the recent 88% rally. The stock may offer medium- to long-term potential tied to the company’s recovery, particularly if free cash flow turns positive as forecast.

The Boeing Company Q3 2025 financial results

On 29 October, The Boeing Company published its financial report for Q3 2025. The key figures, compared with the same period in 2024, are as follows:

• Revenue: 23.75 billion USD (+30%)
• Net loss: 5.34 billion USD (versus a loss of 6.17 billion USD in Q3 2024)
• Loss per share: 7.47 USD (versus a loss of 10.44 USD in Q3 2024)
• Operating margin: –21.7% (versus –33.6% in Q3 2024)
• Free cash flow: 240 million USD (versus –1.96 billion USD in Q3 2024)
• Aircraft deliveries: 160 units (+38%)

Revenue by segment:

• Commercial aircraft sales: 19.64 billion USD (+35%)
• Services revenue: 3.63 billion USD (+10%)
• Commercial Airplanes: 11.09 billion USD (+49%)
• Defense, Space & Security: 6.90 billion USD (+25%)
• Global Services: 5.37 billion USD (+10%)

Boeing’s Q3 2025 report was mixed. The company exceeded expectations on revenue but fell well short on profit. Revenue rose 30% year-on-year to 23.3 billion USD, driven by an increase in deliveries to 160 aircraft – the highest level since 2018. However, the loss per share widened to 7.47 USD due to a one-off charge of almost 4.9 billion USD related to the 777X program. The delay of this aircraft’s deliveries to 2027 hit profitability, although cash flow improved: free cash flow turned positive for the first time in years at 240 million USD, compared with a loss of nearly 2 billion USD a year earlier.

Management did not provide a detailed outlook for 2026 but warned that the coming year would be difficult, as the 777X program will continue to consume cash, with improvement expected no earlier than 2027–2028. At the same time, the core programs – 737, 787, Defense and Services – are showing steady growth, supported by a record order backlog exceeding 600 billion USD.

The main issue of the quarter was the 777X delay and the associated 4.9 billion USD provision, which weighed heavily on earnings. In other areas, the company continues to show gradual recovery: 737 production has stabilised at around 38 aircraft per month, 787 output at about seven, the Defence business has returned to profit, and the Services segment delivered double-digit growth. However, challenges remain – labour strikes at certain plants continue, and legacy losses on the 777X program persist.

Production quality is improving: the number of manufacturing errors and rework has fallen by 60–75%, fuselages from Spirit AeroSystems have become more consistent, and the company has completed modifications on older 737 MAX aircraft. Nevertheless, regulators remain vigilant. The FAA has only partially restored its trust and continues to maintain strict oversight following past violations.

Overall, Boeing is indeed taking steps toward stabilisation, but confidence among markets and regulators remains limited. Any new quality issue or delay could quickly undermine the positive effects of rising revenue and improving cash flow.

Fundamental analysis of The Boeing Company

Below is the fundamental analysis of The Boeing Company (BA) for Q3 2025:

• Balance sheet and liquidity: as of Q3 2025, Boeing’s balance sheet shows improvement in liquidity but remains weak in terms of capital structure. Cash amounted to 6.2 billion USD, with short-term and other investments totalling 16.8 billion USD, bringing total cash and liquid assets to around 23 billion USD. Current assets stood at 122.1 billion USD, compared with current liabilities of 103.3 billion USD, giving a current ratio of roughly 1.18 – indicating that short-term obligations are covered, but without much cushion. Large inventories (82.4 billion USD) and substantial customer advances (57.9 billion USD) leave the company with a structurally negative working capital position, typical of the aerospace industry but making Boeing highly dependent on delivery schedules and production discipline.

The key balance sheet concern is negative shareholders’ equity. Total liabilities amount to 158.3 billion USD, while equity stands at –8.25 billion USD, meaning the company is effectively funded by debt and customer advances rather than shareholder capital. Boeing’s only real safeguard is its vast order backlog – 636 billion USD (over 5,900 aircraft) at quarter-end – which provides revenue visibility for years ahead. However, this buffer will only materialise if the company executes its programs on time and without new setbacks.

• Cash flow and capital allocation: in Q3 2025, Boeing’s cash flow dynamics improved for the first time in several years: operating cash flow totalled 1.1 billion USD, compared with a loss in the prior year, while free cash flow reached 240 million USD.

However, over the past nine months, the company has still reported negative figures – operating cash flow of –266 million USD and free cash flow of –2.25 billion USD – indicating that while losses have narrowed, sustainable cash generation has yet to emerge. Capital expenditure remains moderate at around 900 million USD per quarter. Most of the cash is directed towards debt servicing and production support. Boeing does not pay dividends. The company is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2026, though the pace of improvement is likely to be gradual.

• Debt and capital structure: as of the end of September 2025, Boeing’s total debt stood at 53 billion USD, of which 9 billion USD was short-term. With 23 billion USD in cash and investments, net debt is estimated at 30–31 billion USD – about 30% of annual revenue. Liquidity is currently manageable: upcoming repayments are covered by cash, investments, and 10 billion USD in available credit lines. However, the overall debt burden remains high. Interest expenses for the first nine months of 2025 reached 2.1 billion USD, putting significant pressure on cash given weak inflows. Shareholders’ equity remains negative, meaning the company essentially relies on confidence in future receipts from its order backlog.

Rating agency S&P has affirmed Boeing’s credit rating at BBB– (the lowest investment-grade level) and revised its outlook from “negative” to “stable”, while noting that leverage will remain a critical factor through 2026–2027.

• Conclusion – fundamental analysis of Boeing: Boeing is showing gradual improvement – revenue and deliveries are rising, quarterly cash flow has turned positive for the first time in years, and its record order backlog provides a foundation for future growth. Nevertheless, the balance sheet remains weak: large losses, negative equity, and high debt make Boeing more of a speculative recovery play than a financially stable, consistently profitable company.

Expert forecasts for The Boeing Company shares

• Barchart: 18 of 25 analysts rated Boeing shares as a Strong Buy, 2 as a Moderate Buy, 3 as Hold, and 2 as a Strong Sell. The highest price target is 285 USD, and the lowest is 150 USD.
• MarketBeat: 18 of 26 specialists rated the stock as a Buy, 3 as Hold, and 5 as Sell. The highest price target is 275 USD, and the lowest is 140 USD.
• TipRanks: 13 of 16 analysts rated the stock as a Buy, 2 as Hold, and 1 as Sell. The highest price target is 287 USD, and the lowest is 150 USD.
• Stock Analysis: 11 of 18 experts rated the stock as a Strong Buy, 5 as a Buy, 1 as Hold, and 1 as Sell. The highest price target is 282 USD, and the lowest is 140 USD.

The Boeing Company stock price forecast for 2025

After the release of the Q2 2025 report, Boeing’s share price moved sharply lower, and the subsequent report only deepened investor pessimism. Boeing’s recovery is progressing far more slowly than expected, and management’s forecast of difficult years ahead has reinforced market concerns. Investors are reluctant to take on risk and buy the stock at current levels, preferring to wait until Boeing’s position improves by 2030. The company’s debt burden remains high, and if interest rates stay elevated, debt-servicing costs will continue to weigh on free cash flow and could further slow deleveraging. As a result, downward pressure on Boeing’s shares may persist in the near term. Based on the current performance of The Boeing Company’s stock, the possible scenarios for 2025 are as follows:

The base-case forecast for Boeing shares anticipates a decline towards the nearest support around 140 USD. At this level, as seen previously, demand for Boeing stock may increase, leading to a rebound from support and a renewed upward movement towards resistance at 196 USD. If this level is breached, the next upside target will be resistance at 240 USD.

The alternative forecast for Boeing stock envisions more optimistic investor sentiment towards the company. This could stem from various factors – from broader market optimism to specific positive catalysts within Boeing, such as major new orders, progress in certification and quality, or increased production rates. In this scenario, a breakout above the 240 USD resistance level could follow, paving the way for further gains.

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