Problems mount: FedEx and Nike warn of tough times

Weak reports and forecasts for the next quarter from FedEx and Nike triggered a sell-off in their shares.

FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) is actively cutting costs to offset weakness in the US industrial sector, but these efforts are insufficient to put it on a growth trajectory. Excess inventory at warehouses forces Nike, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) to lower prices, negatively impacting profits and business margins. Both companies have issued bleak forecasts for the upcoming quarter.

This article presents the key figures from the quarterly reports of FedEx Corporation and Nike, Inc. It also conducts a technical analysis of FDX and NKE, which forms the basis for stock forecasts for FedEx and Nike for Q2 2025.

FedEx Corporation Q3 2025 financial report

On 20 March, FedEx reported earnings for Q3 of the 2025 financial year, which ended on 28 February 2025, posting revenue of 22.2 billion USD, representing a 1% year-on-year increase, and marking the first indication of revenue growth in the 2025 financial year. The company reported GAAP earnings per share of 4.51 USD, up 17% from Q3 2024.

Chief Executive Officer Raj Subramaniam highlighted the focus on cost management, noting that savings from the DRIVE program in Q3 totalled 600 million USD, contributing to a projected savings of 2.2 billion USD for the 2025 financial year and an overall savings total of 4 billion USD since the 2023 financial year. He acknowledged the continued weakness in the industrial economy and macroeconomic uncertainty affecting demand in the B2B segment, although to a lesser extent than previously, with global trade policies adding further complexity.

FedEx revised its earnings forecast for the 2025 financial year downwards to a range of 18.00 to 18.60 USD per share from the previous forecast of 19 to 20 USD per share, expecting stable or slightly declining revenue amid ongoing inflationary pressures.

Investors responded to this news with a 10% drop in the company’s share price, reflecting concerns over economic uncertainty and a cautious outlook for the period ahead.

FedEx Corporation stock forecast for Q2 2025

Following the release of its quarterly report, FedEx shares fell by 10%, reaching a local low of 217 USD, after which investors began actively purchasing the company’s stock. As a result, the price broke through resistance at 240 USD and settled above it. Based on the current stock performance, let’s explore potential price directions for FedEx shares in Q2 2025.

The primary forecast for FedEx stock suggests a break through the next resistance level at 252 USD, followed by a price increase to 280 USD. Another signal supporting this price growth is the convergence formed on the MACD indicator.

The alternative forecast for FedEx shares anticipates a break below the support level at 240 USD. In this case, the price could fall to 220 USD. If this scenario materialises, the stock will likely breach the 220 USD support level and continue declining.

Nike, Inc. Q3 2025 financial report

On 20 March, Nike reported its earnings for Q3 of the 2025 financial year, which ended on 28 February 2025. The company posted revenue of 11.3 billion USD, marking a 9% decrease compared to the previous year, although this figure exceeded analysts’ expectations by 240 million USD. Nike achieved earnings per share (EPS) of 0.54 USD, surpassing forecasts of 0.30 USD. However, net income fell by 32% to 794 million USD, and the gross margin decreased by 330 basis points to 41.5% due to increased discounts, the liquidation of excess inventory, and rising product costs. Direct sales revenue dropped by 12% to 4.7 billion USD, with digital sales declining by 15%, while wholesale revenue decreased by 7% to 6.2 billion USD.

The management team, led by President and CEO Elliott Hill, highlighted progress in the implementation of the strategic program 'Win Now', expressing confidence in the company’s development trajectory despite the downturn. They also emphasised key sports-related initiatives, including athlete stories and products designed to enhance performance.

Nike’s forecast for the next quarter has worsened. According to CFO Matthew Friend, the company expects Q4 2025 revenue to decrease by at least 15%, a contraction in gross margin of 400 to 500 basis points, and a 4 to 5% increase in expenses.

In response to these results, Nike’s shares dropped by 7% and continue to trade lower. Market participants are concerned about Nike’s ability to restore revenue growth amid economic uncertainty and trade wars.

Nike, Inc. stock forecast for Q2 2025

On the daily timeframe, the chart for Nike shares presents a mixed situation. The stock is trading within a downward channel and has reached the lower boundary, which acts as support and indicates potential for growth. However, following the quarterly report release, the stock broke through the support at 70 USD and has not yet rebounded, indicating that investors are showing little interest in the company’s shares. Based on the current stock dynamics, let us consider the potential movements in Nike’s stock prices for Q2 2025.

The primary forecast for Nike shares suggests a further decline towards support at 57 USD, where market participants may show renewed interest in the stock, potentially driving the share price up to 80 USD.

The alternative forecast for Nike shares suggests a breakout above the resistance at 70 USD. In this case, the price could rise to 90 USD.