Ford suspends 2025 forecast: tariffs threaten the company’s profitability

Ford does not predict improvements in 2025. The company had barely managed to break even in the electric vehicle segment when it encountered a new challenge – tariffs that require additional investment in production localisation. Only investors’ confidence in the company’s resilience has sustained the share price growth, but this rise may soon come to an end.

In Q1 2025 of the financial year, Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) reported a net profit of 471 million USD with revenue of 40.7 billion USD, exceeding analysts’ expectations despite a 64% drop in profit compared to the same period last year. The company suspended the publication of its annual forecast due to uncertainty caused by new tariffs in the US and warned of a possible 1.5 billion USD reduction in profit in 2025. Despite these challenges, investors responded positively – Ford’s shares rose by 2.7% following the report, reflecting confidence in the company’s strategy to overcome current challenges.

This article examines Ford Motor Company’s business and revenue streams, presents its quarterly reports, and conducts a fundamental analysis of the F-listed asset. It also includes expert forecasts for Ford’s stock for 2025 and analyses Ford’s stock performance, forming the basis for Ford Motor Company’s stock forecast for 2025.

About Ford Motor Company

Ford Motor Company was founded by Henry Ford in 1903 in the US. The company’s primary business activities involve designing, manufacturing, and marketing a wide range of vehicles, including passenger cars, trucks, SUVs, and commercial vehicles. Additionally, Ford is actively involved in the financial sector through its subsidiary, Ford Motor Credit Company, which offers car buyers leasing, lending, and other financial products.

The IPO occurred in 1956, making Ford the first automaker whose shares were traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the F ticker symbol. This opened up new opportunities for investors and facilitated the company’s continued growth and development.

Today, Ford continues to innovate in the automotive industry, focusing on electric vehicles and autonomous technologies while improving the environmental performance of its products in response to evolving market demands and existing trends.

Ford Motor Company’s main revenue streams

Ford divides its operations into key divisions and publishes financial results for each, except Ford Next, which has not yet generated income. Below are Ford’s main divisions and business areas:

• Ford Blue: traditional production of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE) and hybrid vehicles. This represents the core of Ford’s business and includes the production and sale of classic models such as the Ford F-150, Ford Explorer, and Mustang
• Ford Pro: production of commercial vehicles and provision of related services. This division serves clients who use vehicles for business purposes
• Ford E: development and sale of electric vehicles (EVs) and innovative technologies. This department oversees models such as the Ford Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning, and the development and promotion of new electric vehicle platforms
• Ford Next: developing new business models and innovative solutions beyond traditional automobile production. This unit is responsible for the research and development of autonomous driving technologies, new mobility formats, and other promising projects that may lay the foundation for the company’s further growth
• Ford Credit: the company’s financial division, which offers loan facilities to retail vehicle buyers and company dealers. The division’s operations include leasing, vehicle financing, and dealer financing for inventory replenishment

Ford Motor Company Q2 2024 report

Ford released the Q2 2024 financial results on 4 July 2024. Below are the report’s financial indicators:

• Revenue: 47.8 billion USD (+6%)
• Net profit: 1.8 billion USD (-6%)
• Earnings per share: 0.47 USD (-35%)
• Ford Blue revenue: 26.7 billion USD (+7%)
  • EBIT: 1.2 billion USD (-48%)
• Ford Pro revenue: 17.0 billion USD (+9%)
  • EBIT: 2.6 billion USD (+8%)
• Ford E revenue: 1.1 billion USD (-37%)
  • EBIT: -1.1 billion USD (unchanged)
• Ford Credit revenue: 3.0 billion USD (+20%)
  • EBIT: 0.3 billion USD (-25%)
• Total vehicle sales: 536,050 pcs (+0.8%)
  • Electric vehicles: 23,957 pcs (+61%)
  • Hybrids: 53,822 pcs (+55%)
  • ICE: 458,271 pcs (-0.5%)

The report shows that revenue growth was primarily driven by the Ford Pro division, which saw a 9% increase and achieved the highest margins compared to other divisions. Ford ranked second in US electric vehicle sales, behind Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), outperforming GM with 21,930 vehicles sold. However, unlike Tesla, Ford’s electric cars are not yet profitable, as reflected by the Ford E division’s loss of 1.1 billion USD. Consequently, Ford’s management decided to reduce production of the F-150 Lightning pickup truck and postpone 12.0 billion USD in electric vehicle development investments. Instead, the company is focusing on compact electric vehicles with higher margins. In this segment, Ford plans to compete with Tesla and the Chinese company BYD, which sells low-cost electric cars.

Ford Motor Company Q3 2024 report

Ford released its financial results for Q3 2024 on 29 October 2024. Below are the report’s key financial indicators:

• Revenue: 46.2 billion USD (+5%)
• Net profit: 0.9 billion USD (-25%)
• Earnings per share: 0.47 USD (-26%)
• Ford Blue revenue: 26.2 billion USD (+3%)
  • EBIT: 1.6 billion USD (-5%)
• Ford Pro revenue: 15.7 billion USD (+13%)
  • EBIT: 1.8 billion USD (+9%)
• Ford E revenue: 1.2 billion USD (-33%)
  • EBIT: -1.2 billion USD (compared to a loss of 1.3 billion USD a year earlier)
• Ford Credit revenue: 3.1 billion USD (+19%)
  • EBIT: 0.5 billion USD (+25%)
• Total vehicle sales: 504,039 pcs (+1%)
  • Electric vehicles: 23,509 pcs (+12%)
  • Hybrids: 48,101 pcs (+38%)
  • ICE: 432,429 pcs (-3%)

The report data shows that the company continues to face challenges with electric vehicle margins. Despite growth in EV sales, this segment remains unprofitable and requires ongoing investment, which has negatively affected net income, resulting in a 25% decline. However, the Ford Blue and Pro segments, which focus on internal combustion engine (ICE) cars and serve the commercial sector with after-sales service, are helping to mitigate these challenges. Ford Credit is another crucial division that supports the company during difficult times.

Ford Motor Company Q4 2024 report

Ford delivered its Q4 2024 financial results on 5 February 2025. Below are the report’s financial indicators:

• Revenue: 48.2 billion USD (+5%)
• Net profit: 1.8 billion USD (versus a loss of 0.5 billion USD a year earlier)
• Earnings per share: 0.45 USD (versus a loss of 0.13 USD a year earlier)
• Ford Blue revenue: 27.3 billion USD (+4%)
  • EBIT: 1.6 billion USD (+100%)
• Ford Pro revenue: 16.2 billion USD (+5%)
  • EBIT: 1.6 billion USD (-11%)
• Ford E revenue: 1.4 billion USD (-12%)
  • EBIT: -1.4 billion USD (versus a loss of 1.6 billion USD a year earlier)
• Ford Credit revenue: 3.3 billion USD (+6%)
  • EBIT: 0.4 billion USD (+33%)
• Total vehicle sales: 530,660 pcs (+1%)
  • Electric vehicles: 30,176 pcs (+16%)
  • Hybrids: 47,082 pcs (+26%)
  • ICE: 453,402 pcs (+7%)

The report reaffirmed that Ford continues to face challenges with electric vehicle margins, with the Ford E segment remaining unprofitable. However, the traditional business of selling internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles continues to provide support.

Investors reacted negatively to the report, causing the stock price to drop by 7.5% after its release. The losses in the Ford E division were not a factor, as market participants have already accounted for its weak financial performance. Instead, concerns centred on the company’s 2025 outlook. Despite revenue growth to 48.2 billion USD and net income of 1.8 billion USD, Ford warned of a potential decline in adjusted EBIT to 7.0-8.5 billion USD in 2025, down from the 2024 figure of 10.2 billion USD. Another key concern was the possibility of a 25% import tariff on cars from Mexico and Canada, which could adversely affect Ford’s financial results, given the company’s reliance on Mexican plants for low-cost production.

Ford Motor Company Q1 2025 report

Ford published its financial results for Q1 2025 on 5 May. The key financial indicators from the report are as follows:

• Revenue: 40.7 billion USD (-5%)
• Net profit: 471 million USD (-65%)
• Earnings per share: 0.12 USD (-64%)
• Ford Blue revenue: 21.0 billion USD (-3%)
  • EBIT: 96 million USD (-90%)
• Ford Pro revenue: 15.2 billion USD (+5%)
  • EBIT: 1.3 billion USD (-57%)
• Ford E revenue: 1.2 billion USD (+5%)
  • EBIT: -849 million USD (compared to a loss of 1.3 billion USD a year earlier)
• Ford Credit revenue: 3.2 billion USD (+6%)
  • EBIT: 580 million USD (+78%)
• Total vehicle sales: 501,291 units (-2%)
  • Electric vehicles: 22,550 units (+11%)
  • Hybrids: 51,073 units (+33%)
  • ICE: 427,668 units (-5%)

The Ford Q1 2025 report is mixed, reflecting the increasingly challenging macroeconomic environment for the automaker. Although the company exceeded analysts’ expectations by earning 471 million USD with revenue of 40.7 billion USD, this still represents a 65% decrease in net profit compared to the previous year. The 5% drop in revenue and supply chain issues, exacerbated by new US tariffs, have significantly impacted the final results. In response, Ford has suspended the publication of its annual forecast, warning of potential losses of up to 1.5 billion USD due to tariff-related costs. This is a concerning signal, particularly for investors who had counted on stable dividend yields. Amid the uncertainty, Ford might temporarily reduce or even suspend payouts.

Nevertheless, investors reacted moderately positively to the report – shares rose by 2.7% following the publication. This development may indicate confidence in the company’s ability to adapt, especially given that over 80% of vehicles sold in the US are manufactured domestically, which mitigates the impact of tariffs.

Ford’s management expects the first half of the year to be challenging, with EBIT possibly hovering around zero. Improvements are anticipated in the second half due to cost reductions and the launch of new models. However, the EV division remains loss-making, with a 5 to 5.5 billion USD loss projected for the full year 2025.

Overall, Ford demonstrates resilience, but investors face a choice: to bet on the company’s long-term recovery or wait until the situation with tariffs and the EV division becomes clearer.

Expert forecasts for Ford Motor Company stock for 2025

• Barchart: out of 24 analysts, three rated Ford Motor Company’s stock as Strong Buy, 16 as Hold, one as Sell, and four as Strong Sell. The highest target price is 14 USD, and the lowest is seven USD
• MarketBeat: out of 17 specialists, two gave a Buy rating, 12 recommended Hold, and three advised Sell, with a target price range of 7-15.50 USD
• TipRanks: out of 15 respondents, three rated the stock as Buy, 11 as Hold, and one as Sell, with a target price range of 7-14 USD
• Stock Analysis: among 16 experts, one rated the shares as Strong Buy, two as Buy, nine as Hold, and four as Sell, with a target price range of 8-18 USD

Ford Motor Company stock price forecast for 2025

On the weekly timeframe, Ford shares have been trading between 8.60 and 13.50 USD since 2022. At the beginning of May 2025, Ford quotes tested the lower boundary of the range and rebounded from it, rising to 10.30 USD. Based on Ford Motor Company’s current stock performance, here are the possible price movements for 2025.

The base-case forecast for Ford Motor Company shares suggests a support level breach at 8.60 USD, followed by a decline to 7.30 USD. Despite investors’ continued confidence in the company’s future, tariff pressure could continue to weigh on the stock. Addressing this issue will likely require more investment from Ford, especially since management’s current forecast does not anticipate any immediate improvement in financial performance.

Subsequently, a rebound from the support level of 7.30 USD could catalyse a rise in Ford shares towards the upper boundary of the trading range – 13.50 USD. However, this scenario will likely unfold only after the Q2 2024 report is published if the company shows progress in mitigating tariff risks and presents a more optimistic outlook for key financial metrics.

The alternative forecast for Ford Motor Company stock anticipates a breach of the resistance at 11.00 USD, followed by a rise to the resistance level at 13.50 USD.

Risks of investing in Ford Motor Company stock

Investing in Ford Motor Company’s shares involves certain risks that must be considered. Below are the key ones:

• Cyclical nature of the automotive sector: the automotive industry is highly dependent on economic cycles. During periods of economic downturn or recession, demand for new cars may decline significantly, which could negatively affect Ford’s revenue
• Intense competition: Ford faces fierce competition from both established automotive giants, such as General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) and new players in the electric vehicle (EV) market, such as Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). This competition may lead to a reduction in market share and increased pricing pressure
• Transition to electric vehicles: investment in developing and producing electric vehicles is expensive and risky. Ford is actively working to expand its EV portfolio, but this requires substantial investment with uncertain return timelines. Additionally, the company is reporting losses in its Ford E division, highlighting the risks associated with this part of its business
• Technology and innovation risks: the rapid pace of technological change in the automotive industry, including autonomous driving, vehicle connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI), requires Ford to innovate continually. Any mistakes in integrating new technologies or falling behind competitors could negatively impact the company’s stock
• Currency and geopolitical risks: Ford operates globally with manufacturing facilities and sales across many countries. Fluctuations in exchange rates, trade wars, tariffs, and geopolitical instability could all impact the company’s profitability and operating costs
• Dividend risks: Ford has historically paid dividends; however, given the losses in areas like the EV segment, these may be reduced or suspended. This could adversely affect shareholders who rely on stable returns