Intel shares surge after Q1 2026 earnings, increasing the risk of a short-term correction

Intel’s Q1 2026 results confirm the company’s recovery, led by growth in its Data Center and AI solutions segment. A positive outlook for Q2 2026 triggered a sharp rally in the shares. However, elevated valuation multiples and the Stochastic indicator point to a high likelihood of a short-term correction towards 97.50 USD.

For Q1 2026, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) reported results that exceeded market expectations. Revenue grew year-on-year, and adjusted earnings substantially surpassed analyst forecasts, although Intel remains unprofitable under GAAP standards. Gross margin also improved, signalling a more resilient operating performance.

The data centre and artificial intelligence solutions segment provided the main support, posting the strongest growth. The client segment also improved, while the contract manufacturing business continued to expand. Overall, the quarter outperformed expectations across multiple key business areas.

The Q2 2026 guidance was received positively by the market. Intel expects revenue of 13.8–14.8 billion USD and non-GAAP earnings of 0.20 USD per share, above analyst expectations of 13.07 billion USD and 0.09 USD, respectively. The strong guidance was the primary driver of the post-report share rally, indicating that the start of 2026 has been noticeably stronger than the market had anticipated following the weaker targets set in January.

This article provides an overview of Intel Corporation, including a fundamental analysis of Intel’s Q1 2026 results and a technical analysis of INTC shares, forming the basis for the 2026 stock forecast for Intel Corporation.

About Intel Corporation

Intel Corporation is a US technology company specialising in the development and production of microprocessors, chipsets, GPUs, systems-on-a-chip (SoC), network controllers, modems, flash memory, Wi-Fi and Bluetooth chipsets, and sensors for vehicle automation. Founded in 1968 by Gordon Moore and Robert Noyce, Intel introduced the world’s first microprocessor in 1971, laying the groundwork for its future success.

In the same year, Intel held its initial public offering (IPO) on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol INTC, becoming one of the first companies in the emerging technology sector.

Challenging times for Intel: the dot-com bubble, the pandemic, and competitive struggles

The company faced its first major setback during the dot-com bubble in 2000, when demand for PCs and servers plummeted. Management had increased production without anticipating the downturn, resulting in oversupply and falling prices. As a result, Intel was compelled to scale back production, cut costs, and develop a recovery program. Following the crisis, the technology market rebounded, reviving demand for Intel’s products and helping the company recover from the downturn.

The next major test came in 2021. A surge in demand for semiconductor products during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 drove increased production, resulting in market oversaturation and a subsequent price drop, which, in turn, hit Intel’s revenue. However, the company’s challenges did not end there.

In 2023, Intel faced fierce competition from AMD and NVIDIA, whose products outperformed Intel’s processors and graphics solutions in both performance and energy efficiency. A key factor behind this loss of competitiveness was the previous management’s focus on business strategy and financial performance at the expense of engineering investment, leading to delays in transitioning to more advanced 7- and 5-nanometre technologies – already mastered by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM), which produces chips for NVIDIA and AMD.

Investors’ reaction to the company’s difficulties was obvious – they sold off Intel shares. During the 2000 dot-com crisis, the company’s stock plunged by 82%. The current situation is similar, with the stock losing 70% of its value between its April 2021 peak and November 2024.

Intel is increasing investments in new factories and equipment upgrades for foundry operations to restore investor confidence and defend its market share. This strategy temporarily reduces profitability (the company ended 2024 with a loss). Intel’s management plans to lay off up to 15% of its workforce to reduce costs.

Intel Corporation Q3 2024 financial results

Intel released its Q3 2024 report on 31 October, revealing the following key financial indicators:

• Revenue: 13.3 billion USD (–6%)
• Net income (loss): 2.0 billion USD compared to 1.7 billion in Q3 2023
• Earnings (loss) per share: 0.46 USD compared to 0.41 USD in Q3 2023
• Gross Margin: 18.0% (–2,780 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 7.3 billion USD (–7%)
• Data Center and AI: 3.3 billion USD (+9%)
• Network and Edge: 1.5 billion USD (+4%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.4 billion USD (–8%)
• All other: 1.0 billion USD (–28%)

In her comments on the report, Intel’s CEO, Pat Gelsinger, noted that the company’s profitability was impacted by expenses previously mentioned during the Q2 2024 results discussion. However, the actual results exceeded expectations. In Q3, Intel took significant steps to reduce costs, improve efficiency, and strengthen its market competitiveness. A substantial part of the workforce reduction program was also implemented, with plans to lay off an additional 15% of employees by the end of 2024.

The financial results were also impacted by write-offs of outdated products from the COVID-19 period, as these could not be integrated into current products.

Management had an optimistic outlook for Q4 2024. Revenue was projected in the 13.3–14.3 billion USD range, with adjusted EPS of 0.12 USD, reinforcing the possibility of the company returning to profitability.

Despite the current losses, Intel is encouraging shareholders to retain their shares and has paid a Q3 dividend of 0.12 USD per share.

Intel Corporation Q4 2024 financial results

On 30 January, Intel released its Q4 2024 report with the following key figures:

• Revenue: 14.3 billion USD (–7%)
• Net income (loss): (126) million USD compared to income of 2.7 billion in Q4 2023
• Earnings (loss) per share: (0.03) USD compared to earnings of 0.63 USD in Q4 2023
• Gross margin: 32.9% (–650 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 8.0 billion USD (–9%)
• Data Center and AI: 3.4 billion USD (–3%)
• Network and Edge: 1.6 billion USD (+10%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.5 billion USD (–13%)
• All other: 1.0 billion USD (–20%)

For Q1 2025, Intel projected revenue in the 11.7–12.7 billion USD range and a loss of 0.27 USD per share. The gross margin was expected at 36%, down from 51% in Q1 2024.

Q4 2024 marked the first financial quarter under the interim co-presidency of David Zinsner and Michelle Johnston Holthaus following the departure of Pat Gelsinger. Michelle Holthaus noted that the last quarter represented a positive step forward, as Intel exceeded its revenue, gross margin, and EPS forecasts. She emphasised the progress in executing the cost-cutting plan aimed at supporting the company’s recovery. David Zinsner stated that the plan had a positive impact, contributing to improved business efficiency, return on invested capital, and the company’s overall profitability.

Intel continues to move towards its foundry model by establishing Intel Foundry as a separate subsidiary. For Q1 2025, revenue from this division was expected to remain in line with Q4 2024 levels.

Despite positive elements in the company’s report, market participants reacted negatively to its release due to the anticipated decline in Intel’s revenues.

Intel Corporation Q1 2025 financial results

On 25 April, Intel published its results for Q1 2025 for the quarter ended on 29 March. The key figures are presented below, compared with the same period in 2024:

• Revenue: 12.7 billion USD (0%)
• Net income (loss): 887 million USD compared to a loss of 437 million USD in Q1 2024
• Loss per share: 0.13 USD compared to a loss of 0.09 USD in Q1 2024
• Gross margin: 39.2% (–590 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 7.6 billion USD (–8%)
• Data Centre and AI: 4.1 billion USD (+8%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.7 billion USD (+3%)
• All other: 0.9 billion USD (+47%)

Intel’s Q1 2025 report delivered mixed results. On the one hand, the company exceeded revenue expectations; on the other, it reported a net loss of 821 million USD – its fourth consecutive quarterly loss.

Management issued a cautious outlook for Q2 2025. Revenue was projected to range between 11.2 billion and 12.4 billion USD, with a potential loss per share of up to 0.32 USD. These figures fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner attributed this cautious stance to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, including trade tensions and potential new tariffs, which had impacted customer behaviour at the start of the year.

Under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, Intel has embarked on a large-scale restructuring. Key measures include reducing management layers to speed up decision-making, introducing a four-day office working week to boost productivity, and lowering operating expenses to 17 billion USD in 2025 and 16 billion USD in 2026.

Nevertheless, the company continued to face significant challenges in the AI segment, where its competitors Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) firmly hold leading positions. Intel’s AI initiatives, including its Gaudi accelerators, have so far fallen short of expectations, while plans to launch the Falcon Shores GPU have been scaled back.

Intel Corporation Q2 2025 financial results

On 24 July, Intel released its Q2 2025 earnings report for the quarter ended 28 June. Key figures, compared with the same period in 2024, are outlined below:

• Revenue: 12.86 billion USD (0%)
• Net loss: 400 million USD compared to a profit of 100 million USD in Q2 2024
• Loss per share: 0.10 USD compared to a profit of 0.02 USD in Q2 2024
• Gross margin: 29.7% (–900 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 7.9 billion USD (–3%)
• Data Center and AI: 3.9 billion USD (+4%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.4 billion USD (+3%)
• All other: 1.1 billion USD (+20%)

In Q2 2025, Intel reported revenue of 12.9 billion USD, which was nearly flat year‑on‑year and slightly above analyst expectations. Despite this, the company posted a non‑GAAP adjusted loss of 400 million USD, or 0.10 USD per share. This result was due to high one‑off costs, including 1.9 billion USD in restructuring expenses, 800 million USD in asset write‑downs, and an additional 200 million USD in charges.

For Q3 2025, Intel expected revenue to range between 12.6 and 13.6 billion USD, broadly in line with current levels. The non‑GAAP gross margin was forecast at 36%, with earnings per share anticipated to be around breakeven. Under GAAP, the company projected a loss of 0.24 USD per share, with a gross margin of 34.1% and a negative tax rate. This forecast reflected continued pressure on profitability, while also signalling efforts to stabilise financial performance through cost control and a focus on core products.

Intel’s Q2 2025 results highlighted several ongoing challenges. First, the company faced significant pressure on profitability due to restructuring and major write‑downs, which reduced both gross and operating margins.

Second, Intel continued to struggle to attract external clients to Intel Foundry Services (IFS), which provides contract chip manufacturing. The Foundry segment generated around 4.3 billion USD in Q2 revenue, but this was almost entirely from internal orders. Revenue from third‑party clients was minimal at just 22 million USD – a negligible figure given the substantial investments made in this area. This indicates that IFS has yet to establish itself as a serious competitor to players like TSMC and Samsung in the foundry market. Intel continues to promote the Foundry direction as strategically important and has placed its bets on Intel 18A process technology. Still, full commercial adoption by external customers remains at a very early stage.

Nonetheless, there are potential areas of growth within the company. The Data Center and AI segment grew by 4%, IFS rose by 3%, and there was a notable +20% increase in Mobileye and other niche areas, reflecting early signs of positive momentum.

The new leadership under CEO Lip‑Bu Tan is restructuring the corporate organisation, reducing costs, reassessing capital investments, and focusing on key products – including the development of AI processors and the next generation of Intel 18A chips: Panther Lake and Clearwater Forest, which are expected to launch in 2025–2026.

Intel Corporation Q3 2025 financial results

On 23 October, Intel released its Q3 2025 financial results for the quarter ended 27 September. The key figures compared with the same period in 2024 are as follows:

• Revenue: 13.65 billion USD (+3%)
• Net income (non-GAAP): 1.02 billion USD, compared with a loss of 1.97 billion USD in Q3 2024
• Earnings per share (non-GAAP): 0.23 USD, compared with a loss of 0.46 USD in Q3 2024
• Gross margin: 40.0% (+22 percentage points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 8.54 billion USD (+5%)
• Data Centre and AI: 4.12 billion USD (–1%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.24 billion USD (–2%)
• All other: 0.99 billion USD (+3%)

Intel delivered results ahead of expectations, with both revenue and non-GAAP EPS exceeding forecasts. The gross margin came in above the July guidance, and instead of the GAAP loss projected in the previous quarter, the company posted a net profit of 4.1 billion USD. In Q3 2025, most of the GAAP profit was driven by one-off factors – the partial sale of Intel’s stake in Mobileye and the spin-off of Altera into a separate entity. Excluding these effects, results would have been more modest, with adjusted EPS (non-GAAP) at 0.23 USD. Operating expenses declined, helping to support margins, while operating cash flow totalled approximately 2.5 billion USD.

The Foundry segment remained the company’s weak spot, with revenue of 4.2 billion USD and a loss of 2.3 billion USD, driven by high costs related to the rollout of the 18A process technology and low factory utilisation. Nevertheless, Intel highlighted progress: the fab has reached full capacity, and a new partnership with NVIDIA could help boost contract-manufacturing orders.

Intel’s management reported that demand exceeded supply and is likely to remain so until 2026.

For Q4 2025, Intel expected revenue of 12.8–13.8 billion USD, gross margin of around 36.5%, and non-GAAP EPS of about 0.08 USD. The forecast did not include Altera’s results following its divestment. Overall, the quarter was stronger than expected; however, the year-end outlook indicated continued pressure on profits and margins, particularly within the Foundry segment.

Intel Corporation Q4 2025 financial results

On 22 January, Intel published its Q4 2025 financial results for the quarter ended 27 December. Below are the key figures compared to the same period in 2024:

• Revenue: 13.67 billion USD (–4%)
• Net income (non-GAAP): 0.77 billion USD (+35%)
• Earnings per share (non-GAAP): 0.15 USD (+15%)
• Gross margin: 37.9% (–4.2 percentage points)

Revenue by Segment:

• Client Computing Group: 8.19 billion USD (–6%)
• Data Center and AI: 4.74 billion USD (+9%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.51 billion USD (+4%)
• All other: 0.57 billion USD (–48%)

Intel reported stronger-than-expected results for Q4 2025. Revenue totalled 13.7 billion USD, surpassing analysts’ forecast of approximately 13.4 billion USD, and adjusted earnings per share reached 0.15 USD, well above the expected 0.08 USD. Under GAAP, the company still posted a loss of 0.12 USD per share.

The overall business picture remains mixed. The Data Center & AI segment grew by 9% year-on-year and was the primary driver of improved results. At the same time, the PC market continued to weaken, with sales in the client segment declining. Gross margin remained under pressure, reflecting high manufacturing costs and Intel’s challenging competitive position.

The key negative factor came from the guidance. For Q1 2026, management had expected revenue of only 11.7–12.7 billion USD and effectively breakeven non-GAAP EPS. This outlook came in significantly below market expectations, pointing to a weak start to 2026. The company also acknowledged that production issues, supply constraints, and chip yield challenges would persist at least into the second quarter.

The weak guidance triggered a sharp sell-off in the shares following the release of the report. Despite a solid quarter, investors were more concerned about the pace of future growth, and the subdued outlook for early 2026 reinforced fears that Intel’s recovery could be gradual. In addition, in 2026, Intel decided to reallocate its manufacturing resources, prioritising Xeon server processors for data centres and AI infrastructure. This decision was driven by rising demand for data centre chips. At the same time, Intel did not withdraw from the PC market but reduced its focus on budget and low-margin products, shifting towards higher-end processors.

Intel Corporation Q1 2026 financial results

On 23 April, Intel released its Q1 2026 results for the quarter ended 28 March. The key figures compared with the same period in 2025 are as follows:

• Revenue: 13.58 billion USD (+7%)
• Net income (non-GAAP): 1.49 billion USD (+156%)
• Earnings per share (non-GAAP): 0.29 USD (+123%)
• Gross margin: 41.0% (+1.8 percentage points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 7.72 billion USD (+1%)
• Data Center and AI: 5.05 billion USD (+22%)
• Intel Foundry: 5.42 billion USD (+16%)
• All other: 0.63 billion USD (–33%)

Intel delivered Q1 2026 results that were noticeably ahead of market expectations. Revenue reached 13.6 billion USD, compared with a consensus of around 12.4 billion USD, while adjusted earnings per share came in at 0.29 USD versus expectations of 0.01 USD. However, under GAAP standards, the company still reported a loss of 0.73 USD per share, suggesting that a full recovery cannot yet be considered complete.

From a business perspective, the quarter appears stronger than at the end of 2025. The main driver was the Data Center and AI segment, where revenue grew 22% year-on-year amid strong demand for AI-related server processors. The client segment also returned to growth, although the increase was modest.

For Q2 2026, management expects revenue of 13.8–14.8 billion USD and non-GAAP EPS of 0.20 USD. This guidance exceeded market expectations of around 13.07 billion USD in revenue and 0.09 USD in earnings per share. This suggests that demand for server chips and Intel Foundry services remains strong, and that the start of 2026 has been considerably better for the company than the market had anticipated just a few months ago.

Analysis of key multiples for Intel Corporation

Below are the key valuation multiples for Intel Corporation based on the Q1 2026 results, calculated at a share price of 129 USD.

Conclusion on Intel Corporation’s valuation multiples

Based on current valuation multiples, Intel stock appears expensive. The company remains loss-making on a TTM basis and reports negative free cash flow. At the same time, metrics such as P/S at 12.09x, EV/Sales at 12.32x, EV/EBITDA at 93.02x, and Forward P/E at 161.8x indicate that the market is already pricing in a very strong recovery scenario. At this level of valuation, Intel shares cannot be considered a conservative investment with a comfortable margin of safety.

Therefore, Intel should currently be viewed as a stock for investors willing to accept higher risk, effectively betting on the company’s recovery. However, investment in the shares is best considered only following a correction, as the current price is significantly above levels that would be regarded as comfortable entry points.

Expert forecasts for Intel Corporation stock for 2026

• Barchart: 9 out of 44 analysts rated Intel Corporation shares as Strong Buy, 1 as Buy, 31 as Hold, 1 as Sell, and 2 as Strong Sell. The upper price target is 118 USD, and the lower bound is 40 USD.
• MarketBeat: 12 out of 41 analysts assigned a Buy rating, 25 recommended Hold, and 4 recommended Sell. The upper price target is 118 USD, and the lower bound is 30 USD.
• TipRanks: 11 out of 37 analysts recommended Buy, 23 suggested Hold, and 3 recommended Sell. The upper price target is 118 USD, and the lower bound is 30 USD.
• Stock Analysis: 7 out of 34 analysts rated Intel Corporation shares as Strong Buy, 1 as Buy, 23 as Hold, 2 as Sell, and 1 as Strong Sell. The upper price target is 118 USD, and the lower bound is 25 USD.

Intel Corporation stock price forecast for 2026

Between 31 March and 11 May 2026, Intel shares surged by 220%. This sharp rally was accompanied by a series of positive corporate developments, including partnerships with major technology players for the supply of next-generation chips. Even taking these factors into account, the scale of the advance appears excessive, and a correction is needed before any sustainable move higher can continue. The Stochastic indicator is in overbought territory, suggesting a high probability of a short-term pullback before the next upward wave. Based on the current price dynamics of Intel shares, the potential scenarios for 2026 are as follows:

The forecast for Intel shares assumes a decline towards support at 97.50 USD, where the correction is expected to conclude, followed by a resumption of the upward move within the broader uptrend. The next upside target would be resistance at 132.90 USD.

Risks of investing in Intel Corporation stock

When investing in Intel Corporation shares, it is essential to consider factors that could negatively impact the company’s future earnings. The key risks are as follows:

• Manufacturing challenges: Despite a recovery in sales and growth in the Data Center & AI segment, Intel continues to face difficulties in transitioning to more advanced technology processes. Any delays in launching new chips or cost overruns in production projects could reduce profitability and slow the company’s growth.
• Foundry risks: Intel’s ambition to expand its contract manufacturing operations faces intense competition from Samsung and TSMC. Even with growing orders from third-party clients, investments remain significant, and visibility on returns remains limited.
• Competition and loss of market share: Despite growth in the AI and data center segments, the traditional PC market continues to contract. Competition from ARM-based processors, as well as strong positions held by NVIDIA and AMD in the server and AI chip markets, could constrain the potential for revenue growth.
• Lagging in AI and high-performance data centres: Intel is gradually strengthening its position, but it still trails NVIDIA and AMD in AI technologies, which may slow revenue growth in its most profitable business segment.
• Share price volatility: Following a 220% surge from the end of March to mid-May, Intel shares may experience short-term corrections. Overbought conditions indicated by the Stochastic indicator, combined with elevated valuation multiples, increase the risk of a near-term pullback before the continuation of the broader uptrend.
• Dividend suspension: Halting dividend payments, a tradition that began in 1992, could deter income-focused investors. Such financial restrictions could erode investor confidence and ultimately weigh on the share price.
• Geopolitical and economic factors: Tensions between the US and China, a key market for semiconductors, could adversely affect Intel’s business in this area. In addition, the company’s global manufacturing presence is exposed to substantial geopolitical risks.

Collectively, these factors pose a threat to Intel’s future earnings, potentially leading to reduced revenue and increased unplanned costs.

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