Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) concluded Q4 2024 with a 5% increase in revenue and a 17% decline in net profit. In addition, the company’s management issued a cautious forecast for 2025. Investors responded negatively to this news, resulting in a drop in Johnson & Johnson’s stock price.
This article provides the Q2, Q3, and Q4 2024 reports, offers a technical analysis of JNJ shares, and presents a forecast for Johnson & Johnson’s stock in 2025. Additionally, it covers the company’s business model, the sources of its revenue, and expert predictions for Johnson & Johnson’s stock performance in 2025.
Founded in 1886 in the US, Johnson & Johnson manufactures medical products, pharmaceuticals, and health-related items, including personal care products and medical devices. J&J is renowned for its brands such as Band-Aid, Neutrogena, Tylenol, and others. The company went public in 1944 and is now one of the largest healthcare corporations in the world.
Johnson & Johnson is one of the world’s largest companies engaged in the healthcare and consumer goods sector. It has a diversified business model and sells its products in three main segments:
Johnson & Johnson’s business model is based on diversifying revenues across three segments, enabling the company to earn not only from pharmaceuticals but also from the production and sale of medical equipment.
The consumer segment is also a significant area for revenue diversification as it covers products sold outside medical centres that do not require prescriptions.
Johnson & Johnson published its Q2 2024 report on 17 July 2024. In addition to the key financial metrics, the company disclosed segmental data for Innovative Medicine (pharmaceuticals, health products, and personal care items) and MedTech (medical devices and equipment). Below are the figures compared to the same period last year:
Johnson & Johnson’s management described its Q2 2024 results as strong. In particular, Chairman and CEO Joaquin Duato highlighted that the second-quarter figures reflect the company’s ongoing focus on advancing the next wave of medical innovations, which has driven significant sales growth and an adjustment in operating earnings per share. With a robust product portfolio, the integration of Shockwave, and the continued expansion of its pharmaceutical range, the company has a solid foundation for both short- and long-term growth.
Johnson & Johnson issued an upbeat outlook for 2024, expecting continued growth across its core segments – Innovative Medicine and MedTech.
The company projected full-year revenue between 89.30 and 90.30 billion USD, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 4.0-5.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) were forecasted to range from 10.70 to 10.80 USD, marking a 2.5-3.5% increase compared to 2023.
Johnson & Johnson’s management emphasised that the company is well-positioned for long-term growth, supported by its diversified product portfolio and active investments in innovation.
On 15 October 2024, Johnson & Johnson released its Q3 2024 results, showing revenues again exceeded those of the same period in 2023. Below are the key figures compared to Q3 2023:
Joaquin Duato stated that J&J’s Q3 2024 results reflect the unique diversity of the company’s business model and its commitment to innovation in healthcare. He highlighted the company’s progress in advancing treatments for diseases with high unmet needs, reinforcing J&J’s position for sustainable growth.
The earnings report emphasised noteworthy progress in expanding the product portfolio, including regulatory approvals for TREMFYA in ulcerative colitis and combining RYBREVANT with LAZCLUZE for treating non-small cell lung cancer. It also mentioned the submission of an application for exclusive rights related to the development of the OTTAVA general-purpose robotic surgery system.
The decline in net profit was attributed to one-off expenses related to acquired research and development outcomes following the purchase of M-Wave.
On 22 January 2025, Johnson & Johnson released its Q4 2024 results, which exceeded expectations, although the key indicator dynamics were mixed:
Joaquin Duato described 2024 as a "year of transformation" for Johnson & Johnson, highlighting robust growth and accelerated progress in the company’s product portfolio. J&J achieved annual sales of 88.80 billion USD and an EPS of 9.98 USD, representing growth compared to 2023 but was slightly below the forecast it provided in its Q2 2024 earnings commentary.
The decline in net profit was attributed to increased costs related to acquisitions, operating activities, adverse foreign exchange movements, and legal settlement expenses.
For 2025, the company provided a cautious outlook, expecting sales to range between 89.20 billion USD and 90.00 billion USD, below analysts’ expectations of 91.04 billion USD. The adjusted EPS forecast was set at 10.50-10.70 USD per market expectations.
Following the earnings release, J&J’s stock price declined, likely due to the conservative 2025 sales forecast.
None of the experts recommend selling Johnson & Johnson’s shares.
Since January 2021, Johnson & Johnson shares have been trading between 140 and 170 USD. With each attempt to push towards the upper boundary of the range, the highs have gradually decreased, reflecting weak investor demand as the price approaches the 170 USD level. Meanwhile, the stock prices tend to linger near the lower boundary of the range for more extended periods than at the upper boundary. Based on these observations, it can be inferred that investors rush to realise profits when the price reaches the upper boundary. In contrast, there is a struggle for market leadership near the lower boundary. Considering this dynamic, let’s examine Johnson & Johnson’s potential stock performance in 2025.
The Johnson & Johnson stock forecast suggests a ‘false breakout’ at the 140 USD support level, followed by a rise towards 170 USD. Should conditions develop favourably, the stock could break through this resistance, signalling further price growth towards 200 USD. This scenario is the most likely, as investors reacted negatively to the quarterly earnings report, leading to an immediate 4% drop, with the stock price reaching 142 USD. Given this, while a breach of the support level is possible, it may prove to be a false breakout, as the company expects improvements in its financial performance.
The pessimistic forecast for Johnson & Johnson stock anticipates a breakdown of the 140 USD support level, followed by a potential drop to 125 USD. In such a scenario, the stock price could decline as low as 100 USD.
Johnson & Johnson stock analysis and forecast for 2025Johnson & Johnson is a well-established company with a rich history and a track record of stable dividend payments rather than a high-growth startup. It is often favoured by conservative investors seeking reliable income from dividends. While the company’s profit growth is relatively slow (which may not be particularly attractive to a broader base of investors), no expert recommends selling its shares. Therefore, investing in Johnson & Johnson shares can be viewed as a long-term strategy for generating income.
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.