JPMorgan Chase & Co. stock forecast: record revenues drive the bank’s stock

Despite the US interest rate reduction, which exerts pressure on banks’ interest income, JPMorgan Chase & Co. delivered better-than-expected Q4 2024 results, posting the highest annual profit in the bank’s history. Following this news, JPM shares reached a new all-time high of 253 USD.

This article provides an overview of JPMorgan Chase & Co. bank, conducts a fundamental analysis of JPM shares, and highlights key data from the Q3 and Q4 2024 reports to compare the bank’s financial performance across different periods. It also includes JPM technical analysis based on the current JPMorgan Chase & Co. stock performance, which forms the basis for the JPMorgan Chase & Co. stock forecast for 2025.

About JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. can trace its origins to the Bank of the Manhattan Company, founded in 1799. The modern conglomerate was formed through a series of mergers, including the merger of Chase Manhattan Corporation and J.P. Morgan & Co. in 2000. The company was not launched through an IPO but was established through acquisitions. Nevertheless, JPMorgan Chase shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol JPM.

JPMorgan Chase offers a wide range of financial services, including investment and commercial banking, retail banking services, asset and wealth management, and risk and payment control solutions. It is the largest US bank by assets and one of the leading players in investment, commercial, and retail banking. Globally, the company holds a prominent position in investment and financial services and ranks among systematically important financial institutions.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s main financial flows

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s revenue comes from several key sources:

• Consumer & Community Banking: the largest segment by revenue, comprising income from retail banking (interest on loans and deposits, credit card fees, ATM charges, and other banking services for individuals and small businesses)
• Corporate & Investment Bank: revenue generated from investment banking (commissions for stock and bond offerings, advisory fees for mergers and acquisitions, and income from capital markets trading activities, including fixed income and equities)
• Commercial Banking: revenue from services provided to medium and large businesses, loans, cash flow management, and other commercial banking services
• Asset & Wealth Management: income from managing investments for institutional and individual clients, including asset management fees, withdrawals from deposit accounts, and other investment-related earnings
• Net Interest Income: profit arising from the difference between interest earned on loans and investments and interest paid on deposits

JPMorgan Chase’s revenue is highly diversified across various financial services, from retail banking to investment banking. This diversification enables the bank to maintain a stable revenue stream even as market conditions fluctuate.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Q3 2024 report

Banks are traditionally the first to report at the end of each quarter. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Q3 2024 results are outlined below, compared to the corresponding period of 2023:

Revenue: 43.3 billion USD (+6%)

Net income: 12.9 billion USD (-2%)

Earnings per share (EPS): 4.37 USD (+1%)

Net interest income: 23.5 billion USD (+3%)

Consumer & Community Banking revenue: 17.8 billion USD (-3%)

Commercial & Investment Bank revenue: 17.0 billion USD (+8%)

Asset & Wealth Management revenue: 5.4 billion USD (+9%)

Corporate revenue: 3.1 billion USD (+97%)

Assets under management: 3.9 trillion USD (+23%)

Client assets: 5.7 trillion USD (+23%)

In its commentary on the report results, JPMorgan Chase’s management noted that the bank continues to deliver stable performance despite challenging economic conditions. Q3 2024 revenue exceeded expectations, although net income declined slightly due to higher loan loss provisions. CFO Jeremy Barnum stated that consumers remain in a strong financial position, and the increase in the provisions is due to growth in the loan portfolio rather than any deterioration in loan quality.

The bank expects a gradual decline in net interest income (NII) during Q4 2024, potentially reaching a low in mid-2025 before resuming growth supported by the expansion of its loan portfolio and increased credit card turnover. The bank identifies the deteriorating geopolitical environment, the substantial US budget deficit, and changes to the existing trade agreements as potential risks.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Q4 2024 report

On 15 January 2025, JPMorgan Chase & Co. released its Q4 2024 statistics. As the bank’s management anticipated, quarterly net interest income decreased by 2%. The key report highlights are outlined below in comparison with the corresponding period of 2023:

Revenue: 42.8 billion USD (+11%)

Net income: 14.0 billion USD (+50%)

Earnings Per Share (EPS): 4.81 USD (+58%)

Net interest income: 23.0 billion USD (-2%)

Consumer & Community Banking revenue: 18.4 billion USD (-6%)

Commercial & Investment Bank revenue: 17.6 billion USD (+18%)

Asset & Wealth Management revenue: 5.8 billion USD (+13%)

Corporate revenue: 2.0 billion USD (+13%)

Assets under management: 4.0 trillion USD (+18%)

Client assets: 5.9 trillion USD (+18%)

The bank’s Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, noted that all business segments performed strongly. The Corporate and Investment Bank (CIB) saw robust client activity. There was also double-digit growth in payment fees for four consecutive quarters, contributing to a record annual payment income. Retail banking continued to attract new clients across all areas, from consumer banking to asset management, resulting in nearly 2 million new accounts opening in 2024.

Dimon noted that the bank has a resilient balance sheet, including a 547 billion USD loss-absorbing capacity and 1.4 trillion USD in cash and marketable securities. He assessed the US economy as steady, with a low unemployment rate and stable consumer spending. However, he emphasised two main risks: the potentially inflationary impact of future spending and geopolitical instability.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasts net interest income excluding markets of approximately 90 billion USD in 2025, down 2 billion USD compared with 2024.

The bank expects expenses of around 95.0 billion USD, up 3.9 billion USD from 2024. The management attributes this increase in costs to inflation.

Expert forecasts for JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s stock for 2025

• Barchart: 12 out of 22 analysts rated JPMorgan Chase & Co. as a Strong Buy, two as a Moderate Buy, seven as a Hold, and one as a Strong Sell. The maximum price target for buying is 304 USD, while the minimum for selling is 200 USD
• MarketBeat: 11 out of 20 specialists assigned a Buy rating to the shares, seven gave a Hold recommendation, and two rated them as a Sell. The maximum price target for buying is 304 USD, while the minimum for selling is 200 USD
• TipRanks: 10 out of 17 professionals recommended the stock as a Buy, six as a Hold and one as a Sell. The maximum price target for buying is 304 USD, while the minimum for selling is 200 USD
• Stock Analysis: out of 17 experts, four rated the shares as a Strong Buy, six as a Buy, and seven as a Hold

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s stock price forecast for 2025

In March 2024, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s stock surpassed the upper boundary of an ascending channel, triggering price growth towards approximately 270 USD. In January 2025, the share price rose from 200 to 253 USD after breaking through the channel’s upper boundary. Based on the current performance of JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s stock, two potential scenarios are considered for 2025.

The optimistic forecast for JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s stock suggests a breakout above the 253 USD resistance level, followed by further growth to 270 USD. In the event of favourable developments in the US economy, the stock could continue its ascent to 300 USD after a minor correction – a level forecast by most experts. This scenario is deemed more likely, given the bank’s strong financial results at the end of the quarter and its capital reserves sufficient to overcome potential challenges.

The negative outlook for JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s stock predicts the onset of a correction from the current level, which could deepen if the price breaks below the 228 USD support level. In such a case, the stock price could decline to 200 USD, where the correction is expected to end. Subsequently, the price could resume its upward trajectory, with a target of 300 USD.

Risks of investing in JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s stock

Investment risks for JPMorgan Chase’s shares include the following factors:

• Resumed inflation growth: if the inflation rate rises, the Federal Reserve will be forced to delay interest rate cuts or, worse, implement rate hikes. This could trigger a wave of loan delinquencies, necessitating higher loan loss provisions and leading to increased write-offs in this expense line
• Rising deposit interest rates: interest rate hikes will necessitate higher deposit rates. Otherwise, the bank may face customer attrition. The resulting growth in deposit interest payments would negatively affect the bank’s profitability
• A decline in stock indices: given that investment banking generates the highest gains, a decline in stock indices could adversely affect JPMorgan Chase’s investment business. This may also affect the credit sector, as stocks are often used as collateral for loans

Risks related to inflation, interest rates, and a potential decline in stock indices represent significant threats to JPMorgan Chase’s income. These factors should be carefully considered when assessing the investment prospects of the bank’s shares.

Summary

In 2024, JPMorgan Chase achieved a record income of 58.4 billion USD in its entire history. Unsurprisingly, the bank’s stock closed the previous year with a 48% gain following this news. 2025 marks the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency, and financial institutions anticipate that his policy will ease regulatory pressure and create more favourable business conditions. This will likely have a positive impact on the bank’s revenue, suggesting the potential for further growth in JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s stock.