JPMorgan reports stronger-than-expected Q2 2025 results, but JPM shares may face a correction

All of JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s business segments, except for Corporate, posted revenue growth in Q2 2025, ranging from 6% to 19%. However, investor caution persists at record-high valuations, amid growing expectations of a potential correction.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) released its financial results for Q2 2025, with net profit coming in at 15.0 billion USD and earnings per share at 5.24 USD, slightly above analysts’ forecasts, despite a near 10% year-on-year decline in revenue.

The key highlights included strong performance in commercial and investment banking (revenue up 9%) and continued momentum in asset management, where assets under management rose by 18% to 4.3 trillion USD.

The overall drop in revenue and profit was primarily due to the absence of one-off gains related to the First Republic acquisition, which had boosted last year’s figures, as well as the normalisation of the net interest margin. The Corporate segment also recorded a sharp decline in revenue due to the lack of similar extraordinary income. At the same time, bank management flagged rising credit risks and macroeconomic uncertainty as potential headwinds.

Despite beating expectations, JPM shares ended the first trading session following the report in negative territory. Investor focus shifted to falling revenue, weak lending trends, and the management’s cautious tone – all of which raised concerns over the bank’s growth outlook.

This article examines JPMorgan Chase & Co., providing a fundamental analysis of JPM shares. It presents key metrics from the bank’s financial statements for Q3 and Q4 2024, as well as Q1 and Q2 2025, enabling a comparison of its performance across different periods. In addition, based on the recent JPM stock performance, a technical analysis is conducted, forming the basis of the JPMorgan Chase & Co. stock forecast for 2025.

About JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. traces its origins to the Bank of the Manhattan Company, founded in 1799. The modern conglomerate was shaped by a long history of consolidation, culminating in the 2000 merger between Chase Manhattan Corporation and J.P. Morgan & Co. The company did not undergo an IPO, having been formed through successive mergers and acquisitions. Nevertheless, JPMorgan Chase shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol JPM.

JPMorgan Chase provides a broad range of financial services, including investment and commercial banking, retail banking services, asset and wealth management, and risk and payment management solutions. It is the largest US bank by assets and one of the leading investment, commercial, and retail banking institutions. Globally, the company holds a prominent position in investment and financial services and is classified as a systemically important financial institution.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s main revenue streams

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s revenue comes from several key sources:

• Consumer & Community Banking: the largest revenue segment, comprising income from retail banking, including interest on loans and deposits, credit card fees, ATM charges, and other banking services for individuals and small businesses
• Corporate & Investment Bank: revenue generated from investment banking services, such as commissions on stock and bond offerings, advisory fees for mergers and acquisitions, and income from capital markets trading activities, including fixed income and equities
• Commercial Banking: income from services provided to medium and large businesses, including loans, cash flow management, and other commercial banking services
• Asset & Wealth Management: revenue from managing investments for institutional and individual clients, including asset management fees, withdrawals from deposit accounts, and other investment-related income
• Net Interest Income: profit derived from the difference between interest earned on loans and investments and interest paid on deposits

JPMorgan Chase’s revenue is highly diversified across a wide range of financial services, from retail to investment banking. This diversification enables the bank to maintain a stable revenue stream even amid changing market conditions.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Q3 2024 report

Banks are traditionally the first to report earnings at the end of each quarter. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Q3 2024 results are outlined below, compared with the corresponding period in 2023:

Revenue: 43.3 billion USD (+6%)

Net Income: 12.9 billion USD (-2%)

Earnings per Share (EPS): 4.37 USD (+1%)

Net Interest Income: 23.5 billion USD (+3%)

Consumer & Community Banking revenue: 17.8 billion USD (-3%)

Commercial & Investment Bank revenue: 17.0 billion USD (+8%)

Asset & Wealth Management revenue: 5.4 billion USD (+9%)

Corporate Revenue: 3.1 billion USD (+97%)

Assets under Management: 3.9 trillion USD (+23%)

Client Assets: 5.7 trillion USD (+23%)

In its commentary on the results, JPMorgan Chase’s management emphasised that the bank continues to deliver stable performance despite a challenging economic environment. Q3 2024 revenue exceeded expectations, although net income declined slightly due to higher provisions for credit losses. CFO Jeremy Barnum noted that consumers remain in a strong financial position and that the increase in provisions was driven by growth in the loan portfolio rather than any deterioration in credit quality.

The bank anticipated a gradual decline in net interest income (NII) during Q4 2024, potentially reaching a trough in mid-2025, followed by a recovery supported by loan portfolio expansion and higher credit card turnover. The bank identified the deteriorating geopolitical landscape, the sizable US budget deficit, and changes to existing trade agreements as potential risks.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Q4 2024 report

JPMorgan Chase & Co. released its Q4 2024 statistics on 15 January 2025. As forecasted by the bank’s management, quarterly net interest income declined by 2%. Key highlights of the report are outlined below in comparison with the corresponding period in 2023:

Revenue: 42.8 billion USD (+11%)

Net Income: 14.0 billion USD (+50%)

Earnings Per Share (EPS): 4.81 USD (+58%)

Net Interest Income: 23.0 billion USD (-2%)

Consumer & Community Banking revenue: 18.4 billion USD (-6%)

Commercial & Investment Bank revenue: 17.6 billion USD (+18%)

Asset & Wealth Management revenue: 5.8 billion USD (+13%)

Corporate Revenue: 2.0 billion USD (+13%)

Assets under Management: 4.0 trillion USD (+18%)

Client Assets: 5.9 trillion USD (+18%)

The bank’s Chair and CEO, Jamie Dimon, noted that all business segments performed strongly. The Corporate and Investment Bank (CIB) saw strong client activity. There was also a double-digit increase in payment fees for four consecutive quarters, contributing to a record annual payment income. Retail banking continued to attract new clients across all areas, from consumer banking to asset management, resulting in nearly two million new accounts opening in 2024.

Dimon noted that the bank maintains a resilient balance sheet, including a loss-absorbing capacity of 547 billion USD and 1.4 trillion USD in cash and marketable securities. He assessed the US economy as steady, with a low unemployment rate and stable consumer spending. However, he highlighted two main risks: the potentially inflationary effects of future expenditure and geopolitical instability.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecast net interest income (excluding markets) of approximately 90 billion USD in 2025, a decrease of 2 billion USD compared to 2024.

The bank anticipated expenses of approximately 95.0 billion USD, representing an increase of 3.9 billion USD compared with 2024. The rise in costs was attributed by management to inflation.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Q1 2025 report

JPMorgan Chase & Co. released its Q1 2025 statistics on 11 April 2025. The key highlights are provided below in comparison with the corresponding period in 2024:

Revenue: 45.3 billion USD (+8%)

Net Income: 14.6 billion USD (+9%)

Earnings per Share (EPS): 5.07 USD (+58%)

Net Interest Income: 23.4 billion USD (+1%)

Consumer & Community Banking Revenue: 18.3 billion USD (+4%)

Commercial & Investment Bank Revenue: 19.7 billion USD (+12%)

Asset & Wealth Management Revenue: 5.7 billion USD (+12%)

Corporate Revenue: 2.3 billion USD (+5%)

Assets under Management: 4.1 trillion USD (+15%)

Client Assets: 6.0 trillion USD (+15%)

JPMorgan Chase & Co. delivered strong results for Q1 fiscal 2025, exceeding Wall Street expectations. The primary growth drivers were the Investment Banking division and trading operations, with Investment Banking fees up by 12% and trading revenue up by 21%, including a record 3.8 billion USD in the equity markets segment.

However, Jamie Dimon warned of significant turbulence on the horizon, mentioning geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, the elevated budget deficit, and the threat of global trade wars. The bank also increased its provisions for potential credit losses to 3.3 billion USD, indicating rising risks of non-payment from consumers.

The increase in credit loss reserves is a signal of a dual nature. On the one hand, JPMorgan is demonstrating excellent financial results and resilience in its key businesses. On the other hand, growing macroeconomic risks could exert pressure on future profits.

Since the start of the year, JPMorgan’s share price has fallen by more than 5%, despite a strong quarterly report, indicating market caution. However, there were several advantages to long-term investment.

Firstly, JPMorgan remains a systemically important bank with a global network, resilient cash flow, and a diversified business model. It is one of the few banks capable of generating profits in any phase of the economic cycle – whether expansion, stagnation, or recession.

Secondly, JPMorgan’s dividend yield remains consistently high – as of April 2025, it stands at around 2.5-3% per annum. The company follows a policy of regular dividend increases, making the shares attractive to income-focused investors.

Thirdly, the bank is actively repurchasing its own shares. In Q1 2025, JPMorgan Chase & Co. pursued an active capital return policy, executing a buyback program worth 7.1 billion USD. This reflects confidence in its prospects and provides effective support for the share price. Buybacks not only return capital to shareholders but also reduce the number of shares in circulation, thereby increasing earnings per share over time.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Q2 2025 results

Revenue: 45.7 billion USD (-10%)

Net Income: 15.0 billion USD (-17%)

Earnings Per Share (EPS): 5.24 USD (-14%)

Net Interest Income: 23.3 billion USD (+2%)

Consumer & Community Banking Revenue: 18.8 billion USD (+6%)

Commercial & Investment Bank Revenue: 19.5 billion USD (+9%)

Asset & Wealth Management Revenue: 5.8 billion USD (+10%)

Corporate Revenue: 1.5 billion USD (-85%)

Assets Under Management: 4.3 trillion USD (+18%)

Client Assets: 6.4 trillion USD (+19%)

Despite a decline in both revenue and net income, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s results for Q2 2025 surpassed analyst expectations. The bank reported net income of 15 billion USD and EPS of 5.24 USD, versus market expectations of around 4.96 USD, while revenue of 45.7 billion USD came in slightly above the consensus forecast.

Two business segments were particularly strong: the Commercial and Investment Banking division saw revenue rise 9%, with net income reaching 6.7 billion USD. This was supported by a 15% rise in trading income and a 7% uplift in investment banking fees – a notable advantage in an environment of market volatility. Additionally, the Asset and Wealth Management division continued to perform well, with Assets Under Management climbing 18% to 4.3 trillion USD and fee income growing at a double-digit rate. This highlights the bank’s diversified revenue model, which extends beyond interest margin income.

In terms of capital returns to shareholders, management announced an immediate dividend increase to 1.40 USD per share, followed by a further rise to 1.50 USD per share in Q3 2025. The bank also repurchased shares worth approximately 7 billion USD and reaffirmed its readiness to pursue selective M&A activity and organic growth initiatives, while maintaining a measured approach.

A key positive in the release was the upward revision to full-year net interest income (NII) guidance. CFO Jeremy Barnum increased the forecast to 95.5 billion USD, up from 94.5 billion USD, citing steady loan growth across mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards. Credit card charge-offs are expected to remain around 3.6%, indicating a contained risk profile and potential upside for interest margins. The planned dividend increase to 1.50 USD in Q3 reflects management’s confidence in the strength of the firm’s cash flows.

The overall decline in revenue and profit is largely attributed to a high base effect. In Q2 2024, the bank recorded a substantial one-off gain from its acquisition of First Republic. Additionally, net interest margins have begun to normalise, pressured by higher deposit rates and a general slowdown in loan growth.

The sharp fall in revenue within the Corporate segment reflects the absence of such one-off gains in Q2 2025. In 2024, the bank reported a bargain purchase gain of over 8 billion USD. The latest figures represent a more typical earnings level for this division.

Nonetheless, management maintains a cautious outlook. CEO Jamie Dimon reiterated concerns about tariff tensions, fiscal deficits, geopolitical risks, and overheating in certain asset classes. Furthermore, non-performing assets remain elevated at approximately 11.4 billion USD, particularly in the credit card and corporate lending portfolios.

Overall, the report results reaffirm the resilience of JPMorgan’s business model, underpinned by broad diversification, disciplined risk management, and a robust return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) of around 21%. The upgraded NII forecast, continued growth in fee-based income, and shareholder-friendly capital allocation provide a solid foundation for positive expectations heading into Q3 2025.

Analyst forecasts for JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s stock for 2025

• Barchart: 14 out of 26 analysts rated JPMorgan Chase & Co. stock as a Strong Buy, four as a Moderate Buy, seven as Hold, and one as a Strong Sell. The highest upside target is 350 USD, and the lowest (sell-side) target is 235 USD
• MarketBeat: 14 out of 22 experts assigned a Buy rating, five recommended Hold, and three suggested Sell. The highest upside target is 340 USD, with a sell‐side target of 235 USD
• TipRanks: 12 out of 19 professionals advised Buy, five recommended Hold, and two suggested Sell. The highest upside target is 350 USD, and the lowest (sell-side) estimate is 235 USD
• Stock Analysis: three out of 14 experts rated the stock as a Strong Buy, six as Buy, and five as Hold. The highest upside target is 340 USD

JPMorgan Chase & Co. stock price forecast for 2025

On the weekly timeframe, JPMorgan shares continue to trade within an upward trend and have reached the upper boundary of the channel, which currently serves as a resistance level. Additionally, a divergence has formed on the MACD indicator, indicating a potential decline in the stock price. Based on current market dynamics, the possible price movements for JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares in 2025 are as follows:

An optimistic scenario for the JPM share price forecast envisions a breakout above the upper boundary of the channel, followed by a rise towards the 325 USD level. If this level is breached, the price could extend further to 365 USD. These targets have been identified using Fibonacci retracement levels, as JPM shares are trading at historical highs with no past resistance levels available to guide potential growth targets.

A negative scenario for the JPM stock price forecast would only be relevant if support at the 280 USD level is breached. In this case, the price could fall towards the trendline around 200 USD, where a rebound might be expected within the broader context of the long-term upward trend. This outcome may materialise if US macroeconomic indicators deteriorate, leading to a rise in loan defaults, reduced demand for credit, and ultimately a failure to meet the bank’s projected net interest income. Such developments would likely be viewed negatively by market participants and could increase downward pressure on the stock.

Risks of investing in JPMorgan Chase & Co. stock

Investment risks for JPMorgan Chase’s shares include the following factors:

• Resurgence of inflation: if inflation begins to rise again, the Federal Reserve may be forced to delay interest rate cuts or, worse, raise rates further. This could lead to a wave of loan delinquencies, requiring higher provisions for credit losses and resulting in increased write-offs under this line of expense
• Rising deposit interest rates: if policy rates increase, the bank will also need to raise deposit rates to stay competitive or risk customer attrition. The resulting rise in interest payments on deposits would negatively impact the bank’s profitability
• Decline in stock indices: as investment banking currently generates the strongest revenue growth, a fall in stock indices could adversely affect JPMorgan Chase’s investment operations. This could also impact the credit sector, as stocks are often used as collateral for loans
• Trade War: The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could negatively impact JPMorgan's revenue. Increases in tariffs typically lead to higher business costs, reduced consumer demand, and a slowdown in economic activity. This, in turn, lowers demand for banking services as companies become more cautious, reducing their activity in the capital markets and scaling back mergers and acquisitions, which diminishes JPMorgan’s fee income. Furthermore, if trade tensions persist, the bank’s global clients may scale back investment plans, freeze export flows, and reduce overall activity, which would negatively impact all areas of the bank’s operations – from hedging and foreign exchange to traditional lending.

Risks associated with inflation, interest rates, and trade wars pose significant threats to JPMorgan Chase’s earnings. These factors should be carefully considered when assessing the investment appeal of the bank’s shares.