JPMorgan Chase beats expectations: JPM stock forecast for 2025

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Q1 2025 report exceeded market expectations. Analysts forecast that JPMorgan’s share price could rise to 330 USD.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) delivered a strong performance in Q1 2025, demonstrating robust growth in investment banking and trading operations, including a record 3.8 billion USD in equity trading revenue. In Q1, 11 billion USD was returned to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks, highlighting management’s confidence in the bank’s future growth prospects. However, CEO Jamie Dimon warned of significant volatility stemming from geopolitical risks, inflation, and the threat of trade wars. As a precaution, the bank increased its reserves for potential credit losses. After the report was released, JPMorgan’s share price increased by 5%.

This article examines JPMorgan Chase & Co., providing a fundamental analysis of JPM shares. It presents key metrics from the bank’s financial statements for Q3 and Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, enabling a comparison of its performance across different periods. In addition, based on the recent JPM stock performance, a technical analysis is conducted, forming the basis of the JPMorgan Chase & Co. stock forecast for 2025.

About JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. traces its origins to the Bank of the Manhattan Company, founded in 1799. The modern conglomerate emerged through a series of mergers, including the merger of Chase Manhattan Corporation and J.P. Morgan & Co. in 2000. The company did not undergo an IPO, having been formed through acquisitions. Nevertheless, JPMorgan Chase shares are traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the JPM ticker.

JPMorgan Chase provides a broad range of financial services, including investment and commercial banking, retail banking services, asset and wealth management, and risk and payment management solutions. It is the largest US bank by assets and one of the leading investment, commercial, and retail banking institutions. Globally, the company holds a prominent position in investment and financial services and is classified as a systemically important financial institution.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s main revenue streams

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s revenue comes from several key sources:

• Consumer & Community Banking: the largest revenue segment, comprising income from retail banking, including interest on loans and deposits, credit card fees, ATM charges, and other banking services for individuals and small businesses
• Corporate & Investment Bank: revenue generated from investment banking services, such as commissions on stock and bond offerings, advisory fees for mergers and acquisitions, and income from capital markets trading activities, including fixed income and equities
• Commercial Banking: income from services provided to medium and large businesses, including loans, cash flow management, and other commercial banking services
• Asset & Wealth Management: revenue from managing investments for institutional and individual clients, including asset management fees, withdrawals from deposit accounts, and other investment-related income
• Net Interest Income: profit derived from the difference between interest earned on loans and investments and interest paid on deposits

JPMorgan Chase’s revenue is highly diversified across a wide range of financial services, from retail to investment banking. This diversification enables the bank to maintain a stable revenue stream even amid changing market conditions.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Q3 2024 report

Banks are traditionally the first to report earnings at the end of each quarter. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Q3 2024 results are outlined below, compared with the corresponding period in 2023:

Revenue: 43.3 billion USD (+6%)

Net Income: 12.9 billion USD (-2%)

Earnings per Share (EPS): 4.37 USD (+1%)

Net Interest Income: 23.5 billion USD (+3%)

Consumer & Community Banking revenue: 17.8 billion USD (-3%)

Commercial & Investment Bank revenue: 17.0 billion USD (+8%)

Asset & Wealth Management revenue: 5.4 billion USD (+9%)

Corporate Revenue: 3.1 billion USD (+97%)

Assets under Management: 3.9 trillion USD (+23%)

Client Assets: 5.7 trillion USD (+23%)

In its commentary on the results, JPMorgan Chase’s management emphasised that the bank continues to deliver stable performance despite a challenging economic environment. Q3 2024 revenue exceeded expectations, although net income declined slightly due to higher provisions for credit losses. CFO Jeremy Barnum noted that consumers remain in a strong financial position and that the increase in provisions was driven by growth in the loan portfolio rather than any deterioration in credit quality.

The bank anticipated a gradual decline in net interest income (NII) during Q4 2024, potentially reaching a trough in mid-2025, followed by a recovery supported by loan portfolio expansion and higher credit card turnover. The bank identified the deteriorating geopolitical landscape, the sizeable US budget deficit, and changes to existing trade agreements as potential risks.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Q4 2024 report

JPMorgan Chase & Co. released its Q4 2024 statistics on 15 January 2025. As forecasted by the bank’s management, quarterly net interest income declined by 2%. Key highlights of the report are outlined below in comparison with the corresponding period in 2023:

Revenue: 42.8 billion USD (+11%)

Net Income: 14.0 billion USD (+50%)

Earnings Per Share (EPS): 4.81 USD (+58%)

Net Interest Income: 23.0 billion USD (-2%)

Consumer & Community Banking revenue: 18.4 billion USD (-6%)

Commercial & Investment Bank revenue: 17.6 billion USD (+18%)

Asset & Wealth Management revenue: 5.8 billion USD (+13%)

Corporate Revenue: 2.0 billion USD (+13%)

Assets under Management: 4.0 trillion USD (+18%)

Client Assets: 5.9 trillion USD (+18%)

The bank’s Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, noted that all business segments performed strongly. The Corporate and Investment Bank (CIB) saw strong client activity. There was also a double-digit increase in payment fees for four consecutive quarters, contributing to a record annual payment income. Retail banking continued to attract new clients across all areas, from consumer banking to asset management, resulting in nearly 2 million new accounts opening in 2024.

Dimon noted that the bank maintains a resilient balance sheet, including a loss-absorbing capacity of 547 billion USD and 1.4 trillion USD in cash and marketable securities. He assessed the US economy as steady, with a low unemployment rate and stable consumer spending. However, he highlighted two main risks: the potentially inflationary effects of future spending and geopolitical instability.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasted net interest income (excluding markets) of approximately 90 billion USD in 2025, a decrease of 2 billion USD compared to 2024.

The bank expected expenses of around 95.0 billion USD, an increase of 3.9 billion USD from 2024. The management attributed this rise in costs to inflation.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Q1 2025 report

JPMorgan Chase & Co. released its Q1 2025 statistics on 11 April 2025. The key highlights are provided below in comparison with the corresponding period in 2024:

Revenue: 45.3 billion USD (+8%)

Net Income: 14.6 billion USD (+9%)

Earnings per Share (EPS): 5.07 USD (+58%)

Net Interest Income: 23.4 billion USD (+1%)

Consumer & Community Banking Revenue: 18.3 billion USD (+4%)

Commercial & Investment Bank Revenue: 19.7 billion USD (+12%)

Asset & Wealth Management Revenue: 5.7 billion USD (+12%)

Corporate Revenue: 2.3 billion USD (+5%)

Assets under Management: 4.1 trillion USD (+15%)

Client Assets: 6.0 trillion USD (+15%)

JPMorgan Chase & Co. delivered strong results for Q1 fiscal 2025, exceeding Wall Street expectations. The primary growth drivers were the Investment Banking division and trading operations, with Investment Banking fees up by 12% and trading revenue up by 21%, including a record 3.8 billion USD in the equity markets segment.

However, Jamie Dimon warned of significant turbulence on the horizon, mentioning geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, the elevated budget deficit, and the threat of global trade wars. The bank also increased its provisions for potential credit losses to 3.3 billion USD, indicating rising risks of non-payment from consumers.

The increase in credit loss reserves is a signal of a dual nature. On the one hand, JPMorgan is demonstrating excellent financial results and resilience in its key businesses. On the other hand, growing macroeconomic risks could exert pressure on future profits.

Since the start of the year, JPMorgan’s share price has fallen by more than 5%, despite the strong quarterly report, indicating market caution. However, there are several advantages to long-term investment.

Firstly, JPMorgan remains a systemically important bank with a global network, resilient cash flow, and a diversified business model. It is one of the few banks capable of generating profits in any phase of the economic cycle – whether expansion, stagnation, or recession.

Secondly, JPMorgan’s dividend yield remains consistently high – as of April 2025, it stands at around 2.5–3% per annum. The company follows a policy of regular dividend increases, making the shares attractive to income-focused investors.

Thirdly, the bank is actively repurchasing its own shares. In Q1 2025, JPMorgan Chase & Co. pursued an active capital return policy, executing a buyback program worth 7.1 billion USD. This reflects confidence in its own prospects and provides effective support for the share price. Buybacks not only return capital to shareholders but also reduce the number of shares in circulation, thereby increasing earnings per share over time.

In the long term, JPMorgan shares represent a position on the resilience of the US banking system, innovation in digital finance, and return to interest rate normalisation. The company continues to invest in technology, artificial intelligence, and process automation – factors that should help maintain its competitive edge in the future.

Analyst forecasts for JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s stock for 2025

• Barchart: 13 out of 25 analysts rated JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares as a Strong Buy, two as a Moderate Buy, and 10 as Hold. The maximum price target for the shares is 304 USD
• MarketBeat: 10 out of 19 specialists gave the shares a Buy rating, while nine gave a Hold recommendation. The maximum price target is 330 USD
• TipRanks: 12 out of 19 professionals advised Buying, and seven recommended Holding. The maximum price target is 330 USD
• Stock Analysis: three out of 16 experts rated the shares as a Strong Buy, six as Buy, and seven as Hold. The maximum price target is 330 USD

JPMorgan Chase & Co. stock price forecast for 2025

On the weekly chart, JPMorgan shares are in an uptrend. However, in February 2025, prices reversed from the upper channel line and dropped, indicating a correction phase. The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration triggered a decline in US stock indices, worsening the drop in JPMorgan’s share price. The subsequent 90-day tariff freeze then sparked optimism among investors, causing JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s stock to rise by 15%, offsetting the negative effects of the tariffs. This rise marks the correction’s end and the uptrend’s resumption. Based on JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s stock performance, potential price movements in 2025 are as follows:

The optimistic forecast for JPMorgan shares suggests a breakout above the resistance at 250 USD, followed by a price rise towards the upper channel line at 300 USD. High volatility in the stock market, which boosts investment banking income, and the bank’s share buyback program support this forecast.

The pessimistic forecast for JPMorgan shares implies a further decline to the support level at 200 USD, followed by a rebound and price growth towards the 280 USD resistance.

Risks of investing in JPMorgan Chase & Co. stock

Investment risks for JPMorgan Chase’s shares include the following factors:

• Resurgence of inflation: if inflation begins to rise again, the Federal Reserve may be forced to delay interest rate cuts or, worse, raise rates further. This could lead to a wave of loan delinquencies, requiring higher provisions for credit losses and resulting in increased write-offs under this line of expense
• Rising deposit interest rates: if policy rates increase, the bank will also need to raise deposit rates to stay competitive or risk customer attrition. The resulting rise in interest payments on deposits would negatively impact the bank’s profitability
• Decline in stock indices: as investment banking currently generates the strongest revenue growth, a fall in stock indices could adversely affect JPMorgan Chase’s investment operations. This could also impact the credit sector, as stocks are often used as collateral for loans
• Trade War: The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could negatively impact JPMorgan's revenue. Increases in tariffs typically lead to higher business costs, reduced consumer demand, and a slowdown in economic activity. This, in turn, lowers demand for banking services as companies become more cautious, reducing their activity in the capital markets and scaling back mergers and acquisitions, which diminishes JPMorgan’s fee income. Furthermore, if trade tensions persist, the bank’s global clients may cut back on investment plans, freeze export flows, and reduce activity, which would negatively affect all areas of the bank’s business – from hedging and foreign exchange operations to traditional lending.

Risks associated with inflation, interest rates, and trade wars pose significant threats to JPMorgan Chase’s earnings. These factors should be carefully considered when assessing the investment appeal of the bank’s shares.