Forecast for May 16th, 2012
The EUR/USD currency pair has reached a new local minimum. Right now we can see that there are first signs of the reverse. At the H1 chart the RSI indicator has broken the trend’s descending line, we should expect it to rebound from the current levels in an upward direction. Aggressive traders can consider buying Euro with the tight stop. Conservative traders are advised to wait until the price breaks the level of 1.2880, and then try to open long positions. The stop must be placed below 1.2830. The target of the growth is the area of 1.2930. However, if the price continues falling down and breaks the level of 1.2805, this scenario will be cancelled.
The GBP/USD currency pair has reached a new local minimum in the area of 1.6035, but hasn’t fallen down much. Right now there is still a possibility that the pair may start growing up. One can consider buying Pound aggressively with the tight stop below 1.6015. The target of the growth is the area of 1.65. Conservative traders are advised to wait until the price breaks the level of 1.6125, and then try to open long positions with the tight stop.
The USD/CHF currency pair has reached all the targets of the ascending pattern. The main scenario is still the same, we should expect the pair to move downwards. Judging by the structure of the price movement, we should expect it to continue falling down towards the area of 0.92. One can consider opening short positions only after the price breaks the level of 0.9305. If the pair continues growing up, this scenario will be cancelled.
Canadian Dollar is still moving according to our forecast. The pair has rebounded from the sales area, and we should expect it to continue falling down. One can consider selling the pair with the tight stop from the current levels, and increase the amount of short positions only after the price breaks the level of 0.9980. If the price grows up higher than 1.0040, this scenario will be cancelled.
New Zealand Dollar continues falling down. At shorter time frames we can see the formation of the reversal divergences, however, they these signals will not force any kind of correction. If the price starts growing up from the current levels, the closest resistance level will be in the area of 0.79, where one can consider selling the pair.