Brent may spring an unpleasant surprise

The situation in the Middle East is triggering Brent prices. After rising, quotes are forming a corrective wave and are currently hovering around 96.30 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 4 June 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• US crude oil inventories fell by 8 million barrels last week
• Inventories at the largest terminal in Cushing declined to minimum operating levels
• Brent forecast for 4 June 2026: 100.50

Fundamental analysis

The Brent forecast for 4 June 2026 shows that, after rising, oil prices are forming a corrective wave, primarily driven by geopolitical de-escalation, which has eased supply concerns. At this stage, Brent quotes are testing the 96.30 USD per barrel mark.

A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon was announced a day earlier. This breakthrough, mediated by the US, is viewed by the market as an important step towards de-escalating the conflict in the Middle East. The agreement removes one of Iran’s key demands for resuming negotiations with Washington, namely an end to the conflict with Hezbollah. This revived hopes for diplomatic progress and weakened demand for oil as a wartime asset.

US crude oil inventories plunged by 8 million barrels last week, double the forecast. Inventories at the largest terminal in Cushing fell to minimum operating levels. This signals that any supply disruption will worsen the shortage.

Even if a ceasefire is signed tomorrow, restoring full shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and bringing Iranian oil back to the market will take weeks and, by some estimates, years. Brent analysis for today takes into account that, even under an optimistic scenario, Brent prices are unlikely to plummet below 80–85 USD in the near term. If the conflict in the Middle East worsens, a rise towards 112.45 USD and above cannot be ruled out.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, following the pattern signal, quotes could continue the upward wave, with the upside target at the 100.50 USD resistance level. Brent quotes could then move towards 112.45 USD.

At the same time, an alternative Brent price forecast for 4 June 2026 should not be ruled out, where quotes may form a downward wave and test the 93.00 USD support level before growth.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 100.50 and 112.45
• Key support levels: 93.00 and 90.00

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 100.50 resistance level would confirm the uptrend amid persistent risks of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Take Profit: 112.45 USD
• Stop Loss: 95.50 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 93.00 support level would add to pressure on Brent and confirm a downward wave amid expectations of a possible agreement between Washington and Tehran and the restoration of shipping in the region.

• Take Profit: 90.00 USD
• Stop Loss: 93.40 USD

Risk factors

The oil market remains extremely sensitive to news from the Middle East. Brent is supported by the risks of closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, tensions around US-Iran negotiations, and lower US oil inventories. At the same time, statements about a possible memorandum on restoring shipping are limiting the upside potential of the quotes.

Summary

Brent prices are once again attempting to break through towards 100.00 USD and move higher amid declining US inventories and geopolitical risks. Brent technical analysis for today suggests growth towards the 100.50 resistance level after the correction.

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