Brent on the verge of a price surge, the market is bracing for a new shock

The oil market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and statements from the White House. Brent quotes are testing the 91.70 USD mark. Find out more in our analysis for 11 June 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• The US President threatened new strikes on Iranian infrastructure
• The US military secretly escorted ships carrying oil
• The physical market continues to signal an acute oil shortage
• Brent forecast for 11 June 2026: 89.38 and 97.50

Fundamental analysis

The Brent forecast for 11 June 2026 shows that, after the decline, oil prices are forming a corrective wave. The main reason is that Iran announced the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels. Another escalation in military action followed the closure of the strait. At this stage, Brent quotes are testing the 91.70 USD per barrel mark.

The US President threatened new strikes on Iranian infrastructure, bridges, and power stations, if a peace agreement is not signed immediately. In an interview with Fox News, he stated that he would do it again and more harshly.

The physical market continues to signal a severe shortage. US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels in the week to 5 June, almost twice the forecast of 4 million.

Inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to the lowest level since August 2023. OPEC output in May dropped to a two-decade low due to the export blockade affecting Iran and other Persian Gulf countries.

On Wednesday evening, Trump said that the US military had secretly escorted ships carrying more than 100 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. This statement partly cooled traders’ ardour, as they saw that supplies, although restricted, are still continuing. This news largely explains why Brent is forming a correction.

The oil market remains at the epicentre of a geopolitical storm. Iran has officially closed the Strait of Hormuz and is threatening to fire on any vessels. The US is launching new strikes, while Trump is threatening even tougher action. US inventories are shrinking rapidly. Against this backdrop, Brent prices could rise to 150 USD per barrel if the war resumes in full.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes may form an upward wave following the received signal, with the upside target at the 97.50 USD resistance level. Brent quotes may then move towards the 112.45 USD mark.

At the same time, an alternative Brent price forecast for 11 June 2026 should not be ruled out. Under this market scenario, Brent prices may continue their downward trajectory and test the 89.38 support level before rising.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward correction within a medium-term upward move
• Key resistance levels: 97.50 and 112.45
• Key support levels: 89.38 and 85.10

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 97.50 resistance level would confirm renewed Brent growth amid continuing risks of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations.

• Take Profit: 112.45 USD
• Stop Loss: 97.10 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 89.38 support level would add to pressure on Brent and confirm a downward wave amid hopes for a diplomatic settlement of the conflict and the restoration of shipping in the region.

• Take Profit: 85.10 USD
• Stop Loss: 89.70 USD

Risk factors

The oil market remains sensitive to news from the Middle East. Brent is supported by supply restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, uncertainty around US-Iran talks, and the risks of further disruptions in the energy market. At the same time, signals of de-escalation in the conflict and progress in diplomatic negotiations are limiting the upside potential and contributing to a correction.

Summary

Another attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz is destabilising Brent prices and triggering panic in the market. Brent technical analysis for today suggests growth towards 97.50 USD after a correction.

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