Brent under pressure: sellers have the upper hand

Brent is trading near 77.60 USD. The market is pricing in the removal of part of the geopolitical premium and news from Hormuz. Find more details in our analysis for 23 June 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent prices are in a downtrend after a significant decline
• US-Iran relations are gradually improving
• Brent forecast for 23 June 2026: 76.40 or 78.97

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude is hovering around 77.60 USD per barrel on Tuesday after declining the previous day. Investors continue to assess the first signs of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, which are being mediated by international partners in Switzerland.

The market found support in reports that Washington granted Iran a temporary 60-day licence to export oil to global markets. This fuelled expectations of a faster recovery in global crude supply and helped ease fears of supply disruptions.

Another factor was the normalisation of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Exporters from Persian Gulf countries, including Kuwait and the UAE, continue to increase supply volumes, while Iran significantly increased oil exports over the past week.

However, geopolitical risks have not disappeared completely, with Iran’s nuclear program remaining one of the key issues in the talks. US representatives earlier stated that Tehran was ready to allow international inspectors access to nuclear facilities. However, the Iranian side did not confirm this information, maintaining uncertainty around the further course of the negotiations.

The Brent forecast is moderately negative.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent remains in a downtrend after the sharp decline from the June highs near 97. After plunging into the 77–78 per barrel area, the market moved into a consolidation phase, but buyers have so far failed to form a stable recovery. Quotes remain below the middle Bollinger Band, indicating continued selling pressure.

The technical picture remains moderately negative. Oil prices attempted several times to consolidate above the 78.97 resistance level, but each time encountered selling pressure. The nearest support level is located around 76.40. A breakout below this level will increase the risk of a further decline and open the way to new local lows. To improve the situation, buyers need to push prices back above 79.00–80.80, where the upper boundary of the current range is located.

The indicators are not yet confirming a trend reversal. MACD remains in negative territory, although the downward momentum is gradually slowing. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned upwards from oversold territory, signalling the probability of a short-term rebound. Nevertheless, the baseline scenario remains trading in the 76.40–78.97 range, with continued risk of pressure on the lower boundary of the range.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 78.97 and 80.80
• Key support levels: 76.40 and 75.00

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 76.40 support level would confirm continued downward momentum amid stronger expectations of higher oil supply following progress in US-Iran negotiations. In this case, the downside target could be 75.00.

• Take Profit: 75.00
• Stop Loss: 77.80

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 78.97 resistance level would signal a corrective recovery after the recent decline and open the way to the 80.80 area.

• Take Profit: 80.80
• Stop Loss: 77.80

Risk factors

The main risks to the downside scenario remain possible complications in negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as new disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Additional support for Brent may come from signs of lower global oil inventories or strong demand from major crude consumers.

Summary

Brent prices remain under pressure as part of the geopolitical premium is removed. The Brent forecast for today, 23 June 2026, does not rule out range trading between 76.40 and 78.97.

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