Brent decline or a fresh surge? The market awaits the US-Iran verdict

The oil market has frozen in anticipation of the outcome of US-Iran negotiations, with prices hovering around 73.30. Discover more in our analysis for 30 June 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent is forming a correction after the decline
• The talks in Doha are the main event of the day
• Tanker companies are gradually resuming passage through the strait
• Brent forecast for 30 June 2026: 77.00 and 70.00

Fundamental analysis

The Brent forecast for 30 June 2026 shows that prices are forming a corrective wave after the decline. The market is frozen in tense anticipation of the upcoming US-Iran talks. On the one hand, investors are hoping for diplomatic progress, while on the other, actual supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are still far from returning to normal.

The talks in Doha are in the spotlight today. Investors are pricing in a positive outcome of the meeting, even though the strait has not yet been reopened. Despite the remaining risks, tanker companies are gradually resuming passage through the strait. This has led to a significant price drop in recent weeks, with Brent losing almost 11% last week, marking the third consecutive week of declines. If the current pace continues, supply volumes from the Persian Gulf may fully recover by early July.

The market is frozen in anticipation of the outcome of the talks. Hopes for peace and the restoration of supplies are weighing on prices, while real risks and Iran’s continued control over the strait are creating conditions for oil prices to rise.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent prices have formed a Harami reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and could develop an upward wave following this signal, with the upside target at the 77.00 USD resistance level. Subsequently, Brent may rebound and continue to decline.

At the same time, an alternative Brent price forecast for 30 June 2026 should not be ruled out, under which quotes may continue their downward trajectory and test support near 70.00 USD without testing the resistance level.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 75.00 and 77.00
• Key support levels: 72.35 and 70.00

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 75.00 would indicate the start of a new corrective wave.

• Take Profit: 77.00
• Stop Loss: 74.60

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 72.35 support level would indicate increased selling pressure and continued downward momentum.

• Take Profit: 70.00
• Stop Loss: 72.75

Risk factors

The main risk to the downside scenario comes from the talks between the US and Iran, the outcome of which may trigger a new wave of conflict between the countries and a rise in energy prices.

Summary

The markets have frozen in anticipation of the outcome of the Doha talks. Brent technical analysis for today suggests a correction towards 77.00 before a decline.

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