Brent without risk: the market expects global supply to grow

Brent is hovering around 72 USD, with the market reacting positively to the news about the restoration of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Discover more in our analysis for 7 July 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Prices remain in the 70.50–72.80 range as the global oil market restores supplies
• OPEC+ increased production quotas starting in August
• Brent forecast for 7 July 2026: 70.50–72.80

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude is trading around 72 USD per barrel on Tuesday, near its lowest levels in more than four months. The market remains under pressure amid expectations of higher global supply and the gradual restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

An additional factor was the recovery in oil transportation through the strategic route. According to media reports, at least eight Japan-linked vessels, including five supertankers with a capacity of up to 2 million barrels each, passed successfully through the strait. This confirms the gradual normalisation of logistics.

A signal of weaker market conditions came from Saudi Aramco’s decision to cut the August price of Arab Light for Asian buyers by 1.1 USD per barrel, to a discount of 1.50 USD relative to the regional benchmark. This is only the third time in the last decade that the company has sold the grade at a discount. Previously, this happened during the price wars of 2020 and 2015.

Additional pressure on quotes comes from OPEC+’s decision to increase production quotas from next month. The market views this move as confirmation of continued supply growth, fuelling concerns about a global oil surplus.

The Brent forecast is neutral.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent remains in a steady downtrend, but after falling to a local low near 70.50, quotes moved into a consolidation phase. Prices are hovering near 72.00–72.50, gradually approaching the middle Bollinger Band. This suggests the previous bearish momentum is weakening, although there are no signs yet of a full-fledged upward reversal.

The technical picture remains neutral with a moderately negative bias. The nearest resistance level is located in the 72.80–76.30 area, where seller activity has repeatedly intensified. The key support level is 70.50. While Brent has failed to consolidate above 72.80, the market remains in a range, and the risks of renewed downward movement remain in place.

Indicators are giving mixed signals. MACD remains slightly below the zero mark, but the histogram is gradually reducing its negative values, reflecting waning selling pressure. The Stochastic Oscillator is rising confidently towards overbought territory, indicating continued short-term upward momentum. The baseline scenario remains consolidation in the 70.50–72.80 range in anticipation of new fundamental drivers that will determine Brent’s further direction.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward with a consolidation phase
• Key resistance levels: 72.80 and 76.30
• Key support levels: 70.50 and 69.80

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 70.50 support level would confirm renewed downward momentum amid expectations of higher global oil supply.

• Take Profit: 69.80
• Stop Loss: 71.20

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 72.80 would signal an upward correction with the potential to move towards 76.30.

• Take Profit: 76.30
• Stop Loss: 72.10

Risk factors

The main risks to the Brent downside scenario remain an unexpected deterioration in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which would quickly reintroduce the risk premium to the market. A consolidation above 72.80 USD could further support prices.

Summary

Brent prices are holding steady without emotional swings. The Brent forecast for today, 7 July 2026, suggests the consolidation range could remain between 70.50 and 72.80.

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