Brent soars as risks boost demand

Brent climbed to 79 USD, with all eyes on the Strait of Hormuz and the new escalation of the conflict. Find more details in our analysis for 9 July 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent prices are rising as the Middle East conflict escalates
• Energy supply disruptions are back in the spotlight
• Brent forecast for 9 July 2026: 80.30

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude rose to 79 USD per barrel on Thursday, gaining almost 10% since the start of the week. The main driver of the rise remains the sharp escalation in the Middle East after the US confirmed air strikes on facilities in Iran for the second consecutive day.

According to Washington, the strikes are aimed at limiting Iran’s ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Tehran promised to carry out a large-scale operation against US military bases in the region, fuelling fears of a further escalation of the conflict.

US President Donald Trump said that, in his view, the ceasefire is no longer in effect. He warned of the possibility of new military operations, including the introduction of an additional naval blockade. Trump also did not rule out strikes on Iran’s largest oil export terminal on Kharg Island and noted that oil prices may continue to rise.

The new round of the conflict has significantly increased fears about the stability of global oil supplies. The market is increasingly pricing in the risk of disruptions to energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz, the key artery of global oil trade.

The Brent forecast is positive.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent crude maintains strong upward momentum after confidently breaking out of the 70.50–74.90 range. Quotes quickly broke through several resistance levels and rose to the 78.50–79.00 area, where growth temporarily slowed. Prices are hovering in the upper part of Bollinger Bands, indicating continued strong buying pressure, although the market is gradually entering a short-term consolidation phase after a sharp jump.

The technical picture remains clearly positive. The nearest resistance level is located at 80.30 – the next significant level, which could become the buyers’ target if the rally continues. The support level has shifted to 74.90, where the previous breakout level is located, while stronger support stands at 70.50. As long as Brent prices hold above 74.90, the medium-term upside scenario remains the most likely outcome.

Indicators confirm the strength of the current momentum but warn of a possible pause. MACD remains confidently in positive territory and continues to rise, reflecting buyer dominance. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned downwards from overbought territory, signalling a likely short-term correction or sideways movement before a new attempt to break above the 80.30 resistance level. As long as prices remain above 74.90, pullbacks look more like a technical pause than a signal of a trend reversal.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 80.30 and 82.00
• Key support levels: 74.90 and 70.50

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 80.30 would confirm continued upward momentum amid geopolitical risks and threats of disruptions to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Take Profit: 82.00
• Stop Loss: 79.20

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 74.90 support level would signal a correction after the rapid rise and open the way for a retest of the 70.50 level.

• Take Profit: 70.50
• Stop Loss: 76.00

Risk factors

The main risk to the upside scenario remains a possible de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and easing concerns about oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent could come under further pressure if prices consolidate below 74.90 USD.

Summary

Brent prices are rising due to a new round of conflict in the Middle East. The Brent forecast for today, 9 July 2026, suggests a move towards 80.30.

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