Brent rises on concerns over oil supply stability

Brent prices maintain upward momentum amid rising geopolitical risks and an improving technical picture, currently standing at 83.26 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 14 July 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Risks of supply disruptions remain the main factor supporting the oil market
• The US plans to charge a 20% fee on cargo shipped through the Strait of Hormuz
• Today, the market focus is on the US inflation data release
• Brent forecast for 14 July 2026: 93.05

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude prices continue to rise for the third consecutive trading session. Buyers have almost reached the key resistance level at 85.05 USD, and consolidation above it may open the way for continued upward momentum.

The main factor supporting the market remains concerns about possible oil supply disruptions. Prices were further boosted by US President Donald Trump's announcement of a renewed naval blockade of Iran. According to him, the US intends to guarantee security in the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining free passage for all countries while charging a 20% compensation fee on transported cargoes to cover costs. Such initiatives are increasing market concerns about the stability of energy supplies from the Middle East region.

In the afternoon, investor attention will shift to the release of key US inflation data and to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech before Congress. His comments may provide additional signals about the future path of monetary policy, which may have a noticeable impact on the US dollar and oil prices.

Technical outlook

Brent quotes have confidently consolidated above the upper boundary of the descending channel, indicating a change in market sentiment in favour of buyers. Price consolidation above the EMA-65, which is now acting as dynamic support, further confirmed the strengthening upward momentum. Today’s Brent forecast suggests the upward movement will continue, with a target at 93.05 USD.

The technical picture remains favourable for further growth. The Stochastic Oscillator turned upwards after testing the previously broken support line, indicating a high probability of renewed upward movement. If prices successfully retest the upper boundary of the broken descending channel and consolidate above the local resistance level at 84.05 USD, this would further signal the bullish scenario.

An alternative scenario suggests that sellers will regain the initiative. A breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending channel and consolidation below 78.50 USD would confirm the end of the current growth phase and indicate a resumption of the downtrend.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 85.05 and 88.55
• Key support levels: 78.50 and 74.05

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the local 84.05 resistance level would confirm increased buying pressure and indicate renewed bullish momentum after a minor correction.

• Take Profit: 93.05
• Stop Loss: 78.05

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout of the upper boundary of the descending channel, with prices settling below 78.50, would indicate weakening bullish momentum and another downward wave.

• Take Profit: 73.70
• Stop Loss: 81.55

Risk factors

Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and weaker-than-expected US inflation data may strengthen the USD and put pressure on commodity assets. Technically, a threat to the upside scenario would be Brent’s failure to consolidate above 85.05 USD and a breakout below the 78.50 USD support level, which would confirm the return of sellers and increase the likelihood of renewed downward momentum.

Summary

Fundamental factors and the improving technical picture continue to support the uptrend in Brent. As long as quotes remain above the key support levels, the Brent forecast suggests further growth towards 93.05 USD.

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