XAUUSD remains under selling pressure despite the rebound

XAUUSD quotes are recovering, but strong US economic data are limiting the upside potential. Prices currently stand at 4,334 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 9 June 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Despite the recovery, gold remains near multi-month lows
• Strong employment data fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep its policy tight
• The overall technical picture for XAUUSD remains favourable for sellers
• XAUUSD forecast for 9 June 2026: 4,180

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are rising for the second consecutive trading session. Gold received support from easing geopolitical tensions after Iran and Israel reached an agreement to stop mutual attacks, which reduced investor concerns about a possible escalation of the conflict and the related inflation risks.

However, despite the recovery, gold continues to trade near multi-month lows, pressured by strong US labour market data, which exceeded analysts’ expectations and strengthened market confidence that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance. Against this backdrop, expectations of further Fed rate hikes by the end of the year remain in place. This week, investors will focus on the release of US inflation data.

Overall, despite the current rise in XAUUSD, sellers still have the upper hand. Buyers have approached the crucial resistance level of 4,365 USD, a breakout of which could intensify a bullish correction.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes continue their corrective growth within a descending channel. Sellers are still holding prices below the EMA-65, indicating continued bearish momentum and sellers’ control of the market. Today’s XAUUSD forecast suggests the completion of the current upward correction and a renewed decline towards 4,180 USD.

The technical picture remains favourable for a downward scenario. The Stochastic Oscillator has reached overbought territory, signalling the likely end of the corrective rally and the return of selling pressure. A confident breakout below the nearest support level, followed by consolidation below 4,315 USD, would further confirm the future decline.

An alternative scenario suggests stronger buyer activity if prices break above the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidate above 4,385 USD. Such a signal would confirm easing bearish pressure, strengthen the bulls’ positions, and open the way for further growth.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,358 and 4,430
• Key support levels: 4,315 and 4,275

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 4,315 would indicate the completion of the Double Top reversal pattern and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 4,180
• Stop Loss: 4,340

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the 4,385 resistance level would indicate renewed bullish pressure and trigger a strong bullish correction.

• Take Profit: 4,450
• Stop Loss: 4,365

Risk factors

The main risks to the XAUUSD downside scenario remain a possible increase in demand for safe-haven assets if geopolitical tensions resume. An additional risk factor is the release of weak US inflation data, which could dampen expectations of tighter Fed policy and trigger a breakout above the 4,385 USD resistance level.

Summary

Gold is supported by easing geopolitical risks, but strong US economic data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep its policy tight continue to limit the upside potential of XAUUSD. Today’s XAUUSD technical analysis suggests a high probability of the corrective rise ending and the decline resuming towards 4,180 USD.

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